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Evidence on the response of US banks to changes in capital requirements

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Author Info
C. H. Furfine
Abstract

This paper develops a structural, dynamic model of a banking firm to analyse how banks adjust their loan portfolios over time. In the model, banks experience capital shocks, face uncertain future loan demand, and incur costs based on their proximity to regulatory minimum capital requirements. Non-linear relationships between bank capital levels and lending are derived from the model, and key parameters are estimated using panel data on large US commercial banks operating continuously between December 1989 and December 1997. Using the estimated model, the optimal bank response to changes in capital requirements, shocks to bank capital, and changes to bank loan demand is simulated. The simulations predict that increases in risk-based and leverage capital requirements, negative capital shocks, or a decline in loan demand cause a reduction in loan growth. Nevertheless, by calculating the optimal portfolio response to these various changes, it is shown that changes in capital regulation are a necessary ingredient to explain the decline in loan growth and the rise in bank capital ratios witnessed nearly a decade ago. Thus, this study suggests that the current effort to redesign bank capital requirements should work under the assumption that banks will optimally respond to the economic incentives found in the regulation.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 88.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:88

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  1. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne , Alistair, 2006. "The cyclical behaviour of European bank capital buffers," Research Discussion Papers 17/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Isaac Alfon & Isabel Argimón & Patricia Bascuñana-Ambrós, 2005. "How individual capital requirements affect capital ratios in UK banks and building societies," Banco de España Working Papers 0515, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Donsyah Yudistira, 2002. "The Impact of Bank Capital Requirements in Indonesia," Finance 0212002, EconWPA, revised 18 May 2003. [Downloadable!]
  5. W. Bolt & A.F. Tieman, 2001. "Banking competition, risk and regulation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 70, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The Cyclical Behaviour of European Bank Capital Buffers," SIFR Research Report Series 56, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jesús Saurina salas, 2002. "Solvencia bancaria, riesgo de crédito y regulación pública: El caso de la provisión estadística española," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 161(2), pages 129-150, June. [Downloadable!]
  8. Abhiman Das & Ashok K. Nag, 2004. "Credit Growth and Response to Capital Requirements: Evidence from Indian Public Sector Banks," Industrial Organization 0411003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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