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Economic Sentiment and Yield Spreads in Europe

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Author Info

  • Eva Ferreira
  • M. Isabel Martínez Serna
  • Eliseo Navarro
  • Gonzalo Rubio

Abstract

"According to""Harvey (1988)"", the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect investors' expectations about the future economic situation when deciding their plans for consumption and investment. Past literature has used ex post data on output or consumption growth as proxies for their expected value. In this paper, we employ a direct measure of economic agents' expectations, the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission, to test this hypothesis. Our results indicate that a linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7\% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. This ability of yield spreads to capture economic agent expectations may be the actual reason for the predictive power of yield spreads about future business cycle." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 206-221

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Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:206-221

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Cited by:
  1. Dimitrios Subeniotis & Dimitrios Papadopoulos & Ioannis Tampakoudis & Athina Tampakoudi, 2011. "How Inflation, Market Capitalization, Industrial Production and the Economic Sentiment Indicator Affect the EU-12 Stock Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 105-120.
  2. Hyde, Stuart & Sherif, Mohamed, 2010. "Consumption asset pricing and the term structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 99-109, February.

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