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Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns

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  • Jonathan A. Parker

Abstract

Following the textbook C-CAPM, the consumption risk of an asset is typically measured as the contemporaneous covariance of the marginal utility of consumption and the return on that asset. When measured this way, consumption risk is too small to explain the observed equity premium, is negatively related to expected excess returns over time, and fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in average returns of the Fama and French (25) portfolios. This paper evaluates the central insight of the C-CAPM - that consumption risk determines returns - but take the model less literally by allowing the possibility that households do not instantaneously and completely adjust consumption to the news revealed about wealth in a period. The long-term consumption risk of the aggregate market is signficantly larger than the contemporaneous risk and is positively related to expected excess returns over time. The long-term consumption risk of different portfolios largely explains the observed differences in average returns.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 376-382

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:2:p:376-382

Note: DOI: 10.1257/000282803321947380
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References

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  1. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 738, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January.
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  8. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  10. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. " Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-97, September.
  11. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  12. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
  13. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
  14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  15. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pakos, Michal, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Durable Goods and Nonhomothetic Preferences," MPRA Paper 26167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Yulei Luo, 2006. "Rational Inattention, Portfolio Choice, and the Equity Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 56, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2009. "Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-57, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  4. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
  5. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Long-run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention," MPRA Paper 52904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Rational Inattention in Macroeconomics: A Survey," MPRA Paper 54267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Yulei Luo, 2005. "Consumption Dynamics, Asset Pricing, and Welfare Effects under Information Processing Constraints," 2005 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Ferreira García, María Eva & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo & Martínez, María Isabel & Navarro, Eliseo, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-11, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  9. Samih Azar, 2011. "Retesting the CCAPM Euler equations," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 324-346, September.
  10. Yulei Luo, 2010. "Rational Inattention, Long-run Consumption Risk, and Portfolio Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 843-860, October.

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