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Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns

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  • Jonathan A. Parker

Abstract

Following the textbook C-CAPM, the consumption risk of an asset is typically measured as the contemporaneous covariance of the marginal utility of consumption and the return on that asset. When measured this way, consumption risk is too small to explain the observed equity premium, is negatively related to expected excess returns over time, and fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in average returns of the Fama and French (25) portfolios. This paper evaluates the central insight of the C-CAPM - that consumption risk determines returns - but take the model less literally by allowing the possibility that households do not instantaneously and completely adjust consumption to the news revealed about wealth in a period. The long-term consumption risk of the aggregate market is signficantly larger than the contemporaneous risk and is positively related to expected excess returns over time. The long-term consumption risk of different portfolios largely explains the observed differences in average returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan A. Parker, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 9548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9548
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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2016. "Long‐Run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 325-362, March.
    2. Ferreira García, María Eva & Martínez, María Isabel & Navarro, Eliseo & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-11, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    3. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2009. "Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-57, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Yulei Luo, 2010. "Rational Inattention, Long-run Consumption Risk, and Portfolio Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 843-860, October.
    5. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0627-z is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Rational Inattention in Macroeconomics: A Survey," MPRA Paper 54267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    8. Yulei Luo, 2006. "Rational Inattention, Portfolio Choice, and the Equity Premium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 56, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Pakos, Michal, 2004. "Asset Pricing with Durable Goods and Nonhomothetic Preferences," MPRA Paper 26167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Samih Azar, 2011. "Retesting the CCAPM Euler equations," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 324-346, September.
    11. Yulei Luo, 2005. "Consumption Dynamics, Asset Pricing, and Welfare Effects under Information Processing Constraints," 2005 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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