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Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM

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  • Franzoni, Francesco

    ()

  • Adrian, Tobias

Abstract

This paper explores the theoretical and empirical implications of time-varying and unobservable beta. Investors infer factor loadings from the history of returns via the Kalman filter. Due to learning, the history of beta matters. Even though the conditional CAPM holds, standard OLS tests can reject the model if the evolution of investor's expectations is not properly modelled. The authors use their methodology to explain returns on the twenty-five size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Their learning version of the conditional CAPM produces pricing errors that are significantly smaller than standard conditional or unconditional CAPM and the model is not rejected by the data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HEC Paris in its series Les Cahiers de Recherche with number 828.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0828

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Postal: HEC Paris, 78351 Jouy-en-Josas cedex, France
Web page: http://www.hec.fr/
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Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing Model; CAPM; investments;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhi Da & Re-Jin Guo & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "CAPM for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Interpreting the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join, 2013. "Systematic and multifactor risk models revisited," Post-Print hal-00920175, HAL.
  3. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2008. "Dynamic betas for Canadian sector portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1110-1122, December.
  4. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
  5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
  6. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2010. "Time-Varying Beta: A Boundedly Rational Equilibrium Approach," Research Paper Series 275, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. Todd, Prono, 2009. "Market Proxies, Correlation, and Relative Mean-Variance Efficiency: Still Living with the Roll Critique," MPRA Paper 20031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Multifactor Loadings and Pricing Errors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2453-2463.
  9. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  10. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007. "CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
  11. Michel Fliess & C\'edric Join, 2013. "Systematic and multifactor risk models revisited," Papers 1312.5271, arXiv.org.
  12. Fernando D. Chague, 2013. "Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2013_04, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  13. Arnaud Mehl, 2013. "Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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