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Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM

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Author Info
Franzoni, Francesco ()
Adrian, Tobias

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Abstract

This paper explores the theoretical and empirical implications of time-varying and unobservable beta. Investors infer factor loadings from the history of returns via the Kalman filter. Due to learning, the history of beta matters. Even though the conditional CAPM holds, standard OLS tests can reject the model if the evolution of investor's expectations is not properly modelled. The authors use their methodology to explain returns on the twenty-five size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Their learning version of the conditional CAPM produces pricing errors that are significantly smaller than standard conditional or unconditional CAPM and the model is not rejected by the data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by HEC Paris in its series Les Cahiers de Recherche with number 828.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 20 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:0828

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Related research
Keywords: Capital Asset Pricing Model; CAPM; investments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1595, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
  3. Zhi Da & Re-Jin Guo & Ravi Jagannathan, 2009. "CAPM for Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital: Interpreting the Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chris Brooks & Xiafei Li & Joelle Miffre, 2007. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Unsystematic Risk," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2007-03, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew Ang & Joseph chen, 2005. "CAPM Over the Long Run: 1926-2001," NBER Working Papers 11903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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