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The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism

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  • N. KUNDAN KISHOR
  • LEVIS A. KOCHIN

Abstract

We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there is coefficient uncertainty. From 1960 to 1982 the correlation of the monetary base and inflation was positive and so the variance in the growth rate of monetary base in the United States was clearly too large monetary base growth destabilized inflation. However, from 1983 to 2003 variations in monetary base growth were clearly stabilizing and could have been just right. (JEL E52, E31, E32)

Suggested Citation

  • N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:45:y:2007:i:1:p:56-70
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2006.00005.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B., 2001. "An Interview With Milton Friedman," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 101-131, February.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
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    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
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    7. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Arseneau & Ryan Chahrour & Sanjay K. Chugh & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Customer Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 617-672, June.
    2. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    3. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2012. "A Note On Time Variation In A Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence From European Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 422-437, November.
    4. Edward Nelson, 2012. "The correlation between money and output in the United Kingdom: resolution of a puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Fisher, Mark, 2009. "Inflation and monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1221-1241, November.
    6. Narayan Kundan Kishor & Monique Newiak, 2014. "The Instability In The Monetary Policy Reaction Function And The Estimation Of Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 390-402, April.
    7. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "Provocările politicii monetare [Monetary policy challenges]," MPRA Paper 50261, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2013.
    8. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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