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Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing

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Author Info
James H. Stock
Martin Feldstein

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Abstract

This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal GDP; in general the weights on its components vary over time. We investigate two specific procedures: one in which subaggregates discretely switch in and out, and one in which the growth of the aggregate is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a random walk. These procedures are used to construct aggregates which potentially augment M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. Over 1960-1991, the time-varying aggregates look much like M2, but during 1992-93 the time-varying aggregates outperform M2.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4888.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1993. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregates that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  3. John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Research Paper 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  4. Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1016, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
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  8. Spindt, Paul A, 1985. "Money Is What Money Does: Monetary Aggregation and the Equation of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 175-204, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1991. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  4. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. William A. Barnett, 1996. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Macroeconomics 9611001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. William A. Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1996. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," Econometrics 9602002, EconWPA, revised 24 Jun 1999. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ramaswamy, Ramana, 1997. "Monetary Frameworks - Is There a Preferred Option for the European Central Bank?," IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments 97/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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