Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing

Contents:

Author Info

  • James H. Stock
  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal GDP; in general the weights on its components vary over time. We investigate two specific procedures: one in which subaggregates discretely switch in and out, and one in which the growth of the aggregate is a time-varying weighted average of the growth of the subaggregates, where the weights follow a random walk. These procedures are used to construct aggregates which potentially augment M2 with stock and/or bond mutual funds. Over 1960-1991, the time-varying aggregates look much like M2, but during 1992-93 the time-varying aggregates outperform M2.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4888.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4888.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888

Note: IFM ME EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian Reid & David H. Small, 1993. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregates that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  5. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "Tests of an Adaptive Regression Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 248-56, May.
  6. repec:fip:fedlpr:y:1994:i:nov:p:7-29 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Spindt, Paul A, 1985. "Money Is What Money Does: Monetary Aggregation and the Equation of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 175-204, February.
  8. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993. "The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Working Papers 4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert Darin & Robert L. Hetzel, 1994. "A shift-adjusted M2 indicator for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 25-48.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1991. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. James H. Stock & Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing," NBER Working Papers 4888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. repec:fip:fedlpr:y:1994:i:nov:p:31-51 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. John V. Duca, 1993. "Should bond funds be included in M2?," Research Paper 9321, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
  16. Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December.
  17. Alexander H. Sarris, 1973. "A Bayesian Approach To Estimation Of Time-Varying Regression Coefficients," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 497-520 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1973. "An Adaptive Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 364-71, June.
  19. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-84, January.
  20. Bai, Jushan, 1995. "Least Absolute Deviation Estimation of a Shift," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 403-436, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. James H. Stock & Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing," NBER Working Papers 4888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
  3. Leigh Drake & Adrian Fleissig, 2004. "Admissible Monetary Aggregates and UK Inflation Targeting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, EconWPA.
  5. William Barnett & Milka Kirova & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 2012. "Technology Modeling: Curvature is not Sufficient for Regularity," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201214, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  6. William A. Barnett, 1996. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Macroeconomics 9611001, EconWPA.
  7. John B. Carlson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Benjamin D. Keen & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Working Paper 9917, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  9. Dai, Meixing, 2009. "On the role of money growth targeting under inflation targeting regime," MPRA Paper 13780, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4888

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.