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Stock return predictability in South Africa: The role of major developed markets

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  • Wen, Yi-Chieh
  • Lin, Philip T.
  • Li, Bin
  • Roca, Eduardo

Abstract

We examine stock return predictability of the South African (SA) market using lagged country monthly returns of the US, the UK, Germany, and Japan during the period 1973–2014. Our results show that SA market return and industry returns can be significantly predicted by lagged US market return and industry returns, mainly in the pre-1996 market change period. However, the weaker return predictability for SA stock market in the post-1996 period could be due to liquidity effects of economic reforms, regulatory changes and an enhanced information environment on the SA market.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen, Yi-Chieh & Lin, Philip T. & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2015. "Stock return predictability in South Africa: The role of major developed markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 257-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:15:y:2015:i:c:p:257-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.10.014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Can (unusual) weather conditions in New York predict South African stock returns?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 377-386.
    3. Adeabah, David & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "How far have we come and where should we go after 30+ years of research on Africa's emerging financial markets? A systematic review and a bibliometric network analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Forecastability of South African Stock Returns Over a Century: Sentiments versus Fundamentals," Working Papers 202144, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Tissaoui, Kais & Azibi, Jamel, 2019. "International implied volatility risk indexes and Saudi stock return-volatility predictabilities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 65-84.
    7. Ana Monteiro & Nuno Silva & Helder Sebastião, 2023. "Industry return lead-lag relationships between the US and other major countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-48, December.
    8. Nicholas Apergis & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Can Weather Conditions in New York Predict South African Stock Returns?," Working Papers 201634, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; Lagged US returns; Return correlation; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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