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The Emerging Market Crisis and Stock Market Linkages: Further Evidence

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  • Jian Yang
  • Cheng Hsiao
  • Qi Li
  • Zijun Wang

Abstract

This study examines the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the U.S., Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings.

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File URL: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/economics/IEPR/Working%20Papers/IEPR_05.27_%5BYang,Hsiao,Li,Wang%5D.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) in its series IEPR Working Papers with number 05.27.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:05-27

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Keywords: market linkages; emerging stock markets; generalized impulse response analysis; generalized forecast error variance decomposition; rolling VAR analysis;

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References

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  1. Yin-wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments," Working Papers 102003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
  3. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
  4. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  5. Griffin, John M. & Nardari, Federico & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Stock Market Trading and Market Conditions," Working Paper Series 2004-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  6. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
  7. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
  8. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
  9. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  11. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Hsieh, Kunlin & Hsieh, Yuching & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2010. "The interdependence of Taiwanese and Japanese stock prices," MPRA Paper 21475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rousova, Linda, 2009. "Are the Central European Stock Markets Still Different? A Cointegration Analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 10993, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chen, Jia, 2012. "Investigating the change of causality in emerging property markets during the financial tsunami," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(15), pages 3951-3962.
  4. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-mean Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2794, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Francisca Pérez, 2013. "Are International Market Linkages Stronger? Comparison between 1990s and 2000s," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 687, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Nistor, Costel & Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2009. "The impact of the US stock market on the Romanian stock market in the context of the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 36862, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2012.
  7. Guidi, Francesco & Gupta, Rakesh, 2010. "Cointegration and conditional correlations among German and Eastern Europe equity markets," MPRA Paper 21732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Numan Ülkü, 2011. "Modeling Comovement among Emerging Stock Markets: The Case of Budapest and Istanbul," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 277-304, July.
  9. Yang, Lixiong & Lee, Chingnun & Shie, Fu Shuen, 2014. "How close a relationship does a capital market have with other markets? A reexamination based on the equal variance test," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 198-226.
  10. Elena Andreou & Maria Matsi & Andreas Savvides, 2013. "Stock and Foreign Exchange Market Linkages in Emerging Economies," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  11. Li, Hong & Majerowska, Ewa, 2008. "Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-266, September.

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