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Common nonlinearities in long-horizon stock returns: Evidence from the G-7 stock markets

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  • Kim, Sei-Wan
  • Mollick, André V.
  • Nam, Kiseok

Abstract

Employing annual returns generated from overlapping monthly price indexes for the G-7 stock markets, this paper examines asymmetry and common nonlinearities in long-horizon stock returns. Identifying widespread nonlinearities based on LSTAR or ESTAR models, we find that the asymmetric nonlinear dynamics induces a substantial portion of predictable variations in long-horizon stock returns. The nonlinear models clearly outperform linear models "in sample" and in most of the out of sample forecasting exercises. With nonlinear impulse responses suggesting strong stability of return dynamics, the empirical results of this paper provide useful information in developing annual investment strategies for international stock markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Global Finance Journal.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-31

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Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:19-31

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162

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Cited by:
  1. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
  2. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2012. "Stock Market Efficiency, Non-Linearity, Thin Trading and Asymmetric Information in MENA Stock Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, Economic Issues, vol. 17(1), pages 77-93, March.
  3. Yu-Hau Hu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2013. "A Study of yhe Nonlinear Relationships among the U.S. and Asian Stock Markets during Financial Crises," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-147, December.

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