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Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities

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  • Tobias Adrian
  • Emanuel Moench
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

The macro risk premium measures the threshold return for real activity that receives funding from savers. The balance sheet conditions of financial intermediaries provide a window on the macro risk premium. The tightness of intermediaries’ balance sheet constraints determines their “risk appetite,” which in turn, determines the set of real projects that receive funding, and hence determines the supply of credit. Monetary policy affects risk appetite by changing intermediaries’ ability to leverage their capital. This paper estimates the time-varying risk appetite of financial intermediaries for the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, and Japan, and studies the joint dynamics of risk appetite with macroeconomic aggregates for the United States. The paper argues that risk appetite is an important indicator for monetary conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 58 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 179-207

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:58:y:2010:i:1:p:179-207

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References

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  1. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0809-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "The real consequences of financial stress," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1479-1499.
  2. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow banking regulation," Staff Reports 559, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Agur, Itai & Demertzis, Maria, 2012. "Excessive bank risk taking and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1457, European Central Bank.
  4. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2012. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2010. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-065, Harvard Business School.
  6. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Hartmann, Florian & Proaño, Christian R., 2012. "Stock market booms, endogenous credit creation and the implications of broad and narrow banking for macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 410-423.
  8. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2011. "The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the Fed’s liquidity facilities," Staff Reports 520, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Fredric Mishkin, 2011. "How Should Central Banks Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles? The 'Lean' versus 'Clean' Debate After the GFC," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 59-70, June.
  10. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159 - 214.
  11. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Shin, Hyun Song & Shin, Kwanho, 2011. "Macroprudential policies in open emerging economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 63-114.
  12. Valentin Haddad, 2012. "Concentrated Ownership and Equilibrium Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 902, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Jan Bruha, 2011. "Retail Credit Premiums and Macroeconomic Developments," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 133-140 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  14. Elias Dinopoulos & Wolf-Heimo Grieben & Fuat Sener, 2012. "The Conundrum of Recovery Policies: Growth or Jobs?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  15. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2011. "Issuer Quality and the Credit Cycle," NBER Working Papers 17197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons From The Crisis," Chapters, European Central Bank.
  17. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).

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