IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/1555-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing markets and macroeconomic risks

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Chiara Cavalleri
  • Boris Cournède
  • Volker Ziemann

Abstract

Housing markets are large and highly volatile: they can thus create large macroeconomic risks. The current paper provides a bird’s eye view of where the housing markets of major OECD economies currently stand. It then uses the results of recently developed models to provide indications of where macroeconomic risks exist. Finally, the paper draws on recent empirical analyses to suggest how economic policies can enhance economic resilience by reducing housing-related risks through macroprudential measures and housing market reforms (such as changes in rent regulation, taxation and land use policies).

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1555-en
    DOI: 10.1787/737133d8-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/737133d8-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/737133d8-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    2. Cristina Barceló, 2006. "Housing tenure and labour mobility: a comparison across European countries," Working Papers 0603, Banco de España.
    3. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    4. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 2012. "Regulated Prices, Rent Seeking, and Consumer Surplus," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 160-186.
    5. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    6. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Lyytikäinen, Teemu, 2017. "Transfer taxes and household mobility: Distortion on the housing or labor market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 57-73.
    7. Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Hilber, Christian A. L., 2013. "Housing transfer taxes and household mobility: Distortion on the housing or labour market?," Working Papers 47, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Ivan A. Canay, 2011. "A simple approach to quantile regression for panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 368-386, October.
    9. Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2018. "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    10. Edward L. Glaeser & Erzo F. P. Luttmer, 2003. "The Misallocation of Housing Under Rent Control," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1027-1046, September.
    11. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    12. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    13. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2019. "Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-39, April.
    14. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," BIS Working Papers 456, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Daniel Greenwald, 2016. "The Mortgage Credit Channel of Macroeconomic Transmission," 2016 Meeting Papers 1551, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    17. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    18. Dan Andrews & Aida Caldera Sánchez & Åsa Johansson, 2011. "Housing Markets and Structural Policies in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 836, OECD Publishing.
    19. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    20. Caldera, Aida & Johansson, Åsa, 2013. "The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 231-249.
    21. Ian Davidoff & Andrew Leigh, 2013. "How Do Stamp Duties Affect the Housing Market?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(286), pages 396-410, September.
    22. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies—Evidence from Four Inflation Targeting Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 967-992, August.
    23. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    24. Zohair Alam & Mr. Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Heedon Kang & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Mr. Adrian Alter & Jane Dokko & Dulani Seneviratne, 2018. "House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2018/250, International Monetary Fund.
    26. David Turner & Thomas Chalaux & Hermes Morgavi, 2018. "Fan charts around GDP projections based on probit models of downturn risk," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1521, OECD Publishing.
    27. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen, 2016. "Market Break or Simply Fake? Empirics on the Causal Effects of Rent Controls in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1584, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Ben, 2018. "Concerted efforts? Monetary policy and macro-prudential tools," Bank of England working papers 727, Bank of England.
    29. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    30. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger, 2019. "Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions," NBER Working Papers 25466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-12, Bank of Canada.
    32. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    33. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy," Staff Working Papers 16-31, Bank of Canada.
    34. Laurie S. Goodman & Christopher Mayer, 2018. "Homeownership and the American Dream," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 31-58, Winter.
    35. Shekhar Aiyar & Charles W. Calomiris & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Does Macro‐Prudential Regulation Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 181-214, February.
    36. Angelica Salvi del Pero & Willem Adema & Valeria Ferraro & Valérie Frey, 2016. "Policies to promote access to good-quality affordable housing in OECD countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 176, OECD Publishing.
    37. Claessens, Stijn & Ghosh, Swati R. & Mihet, Roxana, 2013. "Macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial system vulnerabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 153-185.
    38. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    39. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    40. Christian A. L. Hilber & Teemu Lyytikäinen, 2012. "The Effect of the UK Stamp Duty Land Tax on Household Mobility," SERC Discussion Papers 0115, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    41. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Measuring Stick-Style Housing Policies: a Multi-Country Longitudinal Database of Governmental Regulations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1727, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    42. Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
    43. Paula Garda, 2016. "The Ins and Outs of Employment in 25 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1350, OECD Publishing.
    44. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Gyourko, Joseph & Linneman, Peter, 1989. "Equity and efficiency aspects of rent control: An empirical study of New York City," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-74, July.
    46. Taejun Lim, 2018. "Housing as Collateral, Financial Constraints, and Small Businesses," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 68-85, October.
    47. Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    48. Van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Gabarró, Marc & Irani, Rustom & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps," EconStor Preprints 216797, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    49. Gabriel Metcalf, 2018. "Sand Castles before the Tide? Affordable Housing in Expensive Cities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 59-80, Winter.
    50. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Financial Structure And Housing Booms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 522-546, April.
    51. Mavropoulos, Antonios & Xiong, Qizhou, 2019. "Housing consumption and macroprudential policies in Europe: An ex ante evaluation," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.
    52. Martin Lux & Petr Sunega, 2012. "Labour Mobility and Housing," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(3), pages 489-504, February.
    53. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews, 2015. "Labour Market Mismatch and Labour Productivity: Evidence from PIAAC Data," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1209, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marta Rodriguez-Vives & Miguel Angel Gavilan-Rubio, 2021. "An overview of the taxation of residential property: is it a good idea?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 283-303.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Jin Young & Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage and value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Dimitris Mokas & Massimo Giuliodori, 2021. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Working Papers 704, DNB.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marcin Czaplicki, 2022. "Measuring the restrictiveness of (macro)prudential policy: the case of bank capital regulation in Poland," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    5. Sandri, Damiano & Bergant, Katharina & Grigoli, Francesco & Hansen, Niels-Jakob, 2020. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas & Aysan, Ahmet F. & Bakkar, Yassine, 2022. "Borrower- and lender-based macroprudential policies: What works best against bank systemic risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Lara Coulier & Selien De Schryder, 2022. "Assessing the Effects of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policy on Credit in the EU Using Intensity-Based Indices," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 22/1044, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Essi Eerola, 2017. "Macroprudential measures in the housing markets – a note on the empirical literature," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 326-335, May.
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2022. "Examining macroprudential policy and its macroeconomic effects – Some new evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Mokas, Dimitris & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2023. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Widiantoro, Dimas Mukhlas, 2022. "Effectiveness and conduct of macroprudential policy in Indonesia in 2003-2020: Evidence from the structural VAR models," MPRA Paper 112963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Manasa Patnam & Ms. Adina Popescu & Mr. Fabian Valencia & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Essi Eerola, 2017. "Macroprudential measures in the housing markets - A note on the empirical literature," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 326-335, May.
    14. Malovaná, Simona & Hodula, Martin & Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef, 2023. "Macroprudential policy in central banks: Integrated or separate? Survey among academics and central bankers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Raksmey, Uch & Lin, Ching-Yang & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2022. "Macroprudential regulation and financial inclusion: Any difference between developed and developing countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal Mccann, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2533-2575, October.
    18. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    19. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    20. Igan, Deniz & Mirzaei, Ali & Moore, Tomoe, 2023. "Does macroprudential policy alleviate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the resilience of banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    21. Scalco, Paulo R. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Teixeira, Anderson M., 2021. "Prudential measures and their adverse effects on bank competition: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; land use policy; macroprudential; policy; rent regulation; resilience; taxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1555-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.