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Explaining time to bank failure in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s

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  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez

    ()

  • Nicholas M. Kiefer

    ()

Abstract

This paper identifies the main bank specific determinants of time to failure during the financial crisis in Colombia using duration analysis. Using partial likelihood estimation, it shows that the process of failure of financial institutions during that period was not a merely random process; instead, it can be explained by differences in financial health and prudence existing across institutions. Among the relevant indicators that explain bank failure, the capitalization ratio appears to be the most significant one. Increases in this ratio lead to a reduction in the hazard rate of failure at any given moment in time. Of special relevance, this ratio exhibits a non-linear component. Other important variables explaining bank failure dynamics are profitability of assets and the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans. Leverage appears to affect the hazard rate also, but with lower statistical significance.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 400.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:400

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Keywords: Banks; financial institutions; Bankruptcy; liquidation; Colombia.;

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  1. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
  2. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2006. "The Bank Capital Channel of Monetary Policy," 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 512, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Robert Billings & Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "Banking System Fragility," IMF Working Papers 96/142, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
  5. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
  6. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June.
  7. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
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