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Explaining and predicting bank failure using duration models: the case of Argentina after the Mexican crisis

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Author Info
Marcelo Dabós () (Universidad de San Andrés)
Walter Sosa Escudero () (Universidad de San Andrés)

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Abstract

This paper studies the role played by several bank specific financial indicators in determining the process of bank failure in Argentina after the Mexican crisis known as the "tequila effect". Due to the relative scarcity of previous studies, this paper priorizes the use of semiparametric and non-parametric methods which allow us to measure the effect of bank specific financial explanatory variables in the process of bank failure together with duration dependence effects without the need of arbi-trary and possibly unrealistic assumptions. The dynamic of bank failures can be fairly characterized by observable factors, which discards the possibility that it had been governed by contagion processes solely. The non-monotonocity of the implicit hazard rate suggests that there were contagion effects, and that they had a strong influence in the first 200 days of the crisis.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department in its journal Revista de Analisis Economico.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 31-49
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Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:19:y:2004:i:1:p:31-49

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Related research
Keywords: bank failure; duration models; argentina;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R00 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General - - - General
Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1989. "Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-18. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dahl, Drew & Spivey, Michael F., 1995. "Prompt corrective action and bank efforts to recover from undercapitalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 225-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "Bank runs and currency run in a system without a safety net: Argentina and the 'tequila' shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 257-277, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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