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Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)

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Author Info
Adriana Soares Sales
Maria Eduarda Tannuri-Pianto
Abstract

We apply duration (survival) models with exponential hazard and exponential piecewise-constant hazard functions to study the determinants of bank failure over the period 1994 to 1998 in Brazil. The models deal empirically with left censoring in the data. We control for macroeconomic conditions and contagion effects, besides bank-specific factors. Our results indicate that foreign banks have distinct empirical survival functions relatively to other banks. For Brazil, macroeconomic and bank-level covariates explain the likelihood and timing of bank failure. Our indicator of system-wide financial fragility (IFF) suggests that the banking industry faced increased fragility after November 1995. We find evidence that the Program of Incentives to the Restructuring and Strengthening of the National Financial System (Proer) was able to distinguish solvent from insolvent banks.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 147.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:147

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  1. Cysne, Rubens Penha & Costa, Sergio Gustavo Silveira da, 1997. "Effects of the Real Plan on the Brazilian Banking System," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 304, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995. "Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions," Working Papers 1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Looney, Stephen W. & Wansley, James W. & Lane, William R., 1989. "An examination of misclassifications with bank failure prediction models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 327-336, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marcelo Dabós & Walter Sosa Escudero, 2000. "Explaining and Predicting Bank Failure in Argentina Using Duration Models," Working Papers 26, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2000. [Downloadable!]
  6. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert DeYoung, 2000. "For how long are newly chartered banks financially fragile?," Working Paper Series WP-00-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
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  11. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1993. "Explaining bank failures: deposit insurance, regulation, and efficiency," Working Papers 1993-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31. [Downloadable!]
  13. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1991. "Principal-agent problems in commercial-bank failure decisions," Working Paper 9106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  14. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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