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Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models

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  • Levant, Jared
  • Ma, Jun

Abstract

We employ the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DNS) model augmented with macroeconomic factors to investigate interactions of yields, real economic activity, and monetary policy in the United Kingdom. By explicitly accounting for the structural break during the early 90s at the time the UK exited the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System, we document a number of interesting findings. Specifically, there is evidence of a great moderation in the volatility of the term structure post-1992. At the same time, there is a significant reduction of the loading parameter in the DNS model, which suggests a greater influence of monetary policy and economic activity on the UK bond market. We find that the level and slope yield curve factors are related to inflation expectations and monetary policy, respectively, as has been found in related literature. Interestingly, the curvature factor which has been elusive in its relationship to macroeconomic fundamentals is found to be more strongly related to economic activity post-1992.

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  • Levant, Jared & Ma, Jun, 2016. "Investigating United Kingdom's monetary policy with Macro-Factor Augmented Dynamic Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 117-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:117-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    5. Caputo, Rodrigo & Pedersen, Michael, 2020. "The changing nature of the real exchange rate: The role of central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 445-464.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Polat, Onur & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission mechanisms of financial stress into economic activity in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 395-415.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Term structure; Macroeconomic fundamentals; Dynamic Nelson–Siegel model; Factor-augmented VAR; Structural break;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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