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Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand

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Author Info
Olivier Basdevant (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
Abstract

The nature of expectations matters when conducting monetary policy. Models with a learning process can exhibit very different properties from models with other types of expectations rules. This paper draws on the work of Orphanides and Williams (2002), extending it to allow for the possibility that the learning process may not be perpetual, but rather might be converging towards a rational expectations equilibrium. By modelling expectations using a learning process, we obtain evidence suggesting that inflation expectations in New Zealand are moving towards rational expectations. Theory suggests this will make it easier to control inflation after a temporary disturbance.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2003/05.

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Length: 23p
Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2003/05

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1988. "The Fate of Systems with "Adaptive" Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 168-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mike Beeby & S.G. Hall & Brian Henry, 2001. "Rational expectations and near rational alternatives: how best to form expectations," Working Paper Series 086, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Changes in the inflation process in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 30p., March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economic Research Papers in Economics 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics, Thueringer Universitaets- und Landesbibliothek. [Downloadable!]
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