Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
AbstractTen of thirteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment, three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates do not.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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- Arturo Estrella & Tobias Adrian, 2009. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Staff Reports 397, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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