This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We show that macroeconomic variables as well as monetary policy variables have a significant impact on two factors that capture the variation in yields. An increase in the inflation rate and economic growth result in a rise in the yield curve. Similarly, an increase in the money supply causes a rise in the yield curve, albeit with a delayed effect. Finally, when official rates are raised, the long yield shows signs of a delayed decline. Overall, the long yield is more sensitive to most changes in macroeconomic and monetary variables. These results differ from an earlier study on bond yields by Ang and Piazzesi (2003), who show that the U.S. short-term rate is more sensitive to changes in macroeconomic variables. Possible explanations for the difference include certain unique structural features in the domestic financial system and the way monetary policy is conducted in China.
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Paper provided by China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number
2009-9.
Length: 34 pages Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-009
Contact details of provider: Postal: China, Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: +46-8-736 90 00 Fax: +46-8-31 81 86 Web page: http://www.hhs.se/CERC/ More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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