Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

China's official rates and bond yields

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fan, Longzhen
  • Johansson, Anders C.

Abstract

Recent research shows that bond yields are influenced by monetary policy decisions. To learn how this works in a bond market that differs significantly from those in the US and Europe, we model Chinese bond yields using the one-year deposit interest rate as a state variable. We also include the spread between the one-year market interest rate and the one-year deposit interest rate as another factor. The model is developed in an affine framework and closed-form solutions are obtained. We then test the model empirically with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The results show that the new model that incorporates the official rate in China characterizes the changing shape of the yield curve well.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCY-4XJG5KW-2/2/d2427458d8a6b669dfc5fbf38f67e16c
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 996-1007

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:996-1007

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: China Deposit interest rate Bond yields Jump process Affine model;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  2. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
  3. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  5. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Balduzzi, Pierluigi, et al, 1998. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 26-50, February.
  7. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
  9. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  10. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  13. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
  14. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
  15. Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, 02.
  16. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  17. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  18. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 1998. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 242, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Mar 1999.
  19. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  20. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  22. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
  23. Andersson, Malin & Dillen, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy signaling and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1815-1855, November.
  24. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zou, Li-Ping, 2008. "How do policy and information shocks impact co-movements of China's T-bond and stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 347-359, March.
  25. Heber Farnsworth & Richard Bass, 2003. "The Term Structure with Semi-credible Targeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 839-866, 04.
  26. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
  2. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
  3. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Hong, Yongmiao & Lin, Hai & Wang, Shouyang, 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of Chinese spot interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1047-1061, May.
  5. repec:wyi:journl:002118 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Dempster, M.A.H. & Tang, Ke, 2011. "Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 639-652, March.
  7. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin, 2013. "China's Monetary Policy Communication: Money Markets not only Listen, They also Understand," Working Papers 022013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:996-1007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.