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Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity

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Author Info
Arturo Estrella
Tobias Adrian

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Abstract

Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 397.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:397

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Business cycles ; Unemployment ; Interest rates;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: Cited by:
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  1. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-31.

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