Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity
AbstractEleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 397.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-10-31 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-10-31 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-10-31 (Monetary Economics)
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