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Response of Venezuelan output to monetary policy, deficit spending, and currency depreciation: a VAR model

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Yu Hsing ()

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Abstract

This study applies the VAR model to find possible responses of real GDP to selected macroeconomic variables in Venezuela. Based on an annual sample during 1961 - 2001, the author finds that the real GDP responds positively to a shcock to real M2 , goverment déficit spending, exchange rate depreciation, and the lagged output and negatively to a shick to the inflation rate during some of the time periods. Except for the lagged output, government deficit spending and the inflation rate are the most influential variable in the first year, and real M2 and the real exchange rate are more influential and have longer - term after the first year.

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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2004)
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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003461

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  1. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 15-26. [Downloadable!]
  2. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-08, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Taylor, John B, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Thomas J. Dohmen, 2002. "Building and using economic models: a case study analysis of the IS-LL model," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 191-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Arturo Estrella, 2002. "Securitization and the efficacy of monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 243-255. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bruce Greenwald & J. E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Monetary policy and the theory of the risk-averse bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mark J.Holmes, 2002. "Are there non linearities in US: Latin American real exchange behavior," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 177-190, December. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40. [Downloadable!]
  16. Yu Hsing, 2003. "Impact of external debt and other macroeconomic policies on output in Brazil: a var approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 97-108, December. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111. [Downloadable!]
  18. David J. Smyth & Yu Hsing, 1995. "In Search Of An Optimal Debt Ratio For Economic Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(4), pages 51-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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