Do Market-based Indicators Anticipate Rating Agencies? Evidence for International Banks
AbstractThis paper analyses the ability of credit default swap (CDS) spreads, bond spreads and stock prices to anticipate the decisions of the main rating agencies, regarding the largest international banks. Conditional on negative rating events, all the three indicators show significant abnormal changes before both announcements of review and actual credit rating changes, but rating actions still seem to convey new information to the market. Results for positive rating events are less clear-cut with the market indicators generally showing abnormal behaviours only in conjunction with the events. As for the predictive power of the financial indicators examined, the CDS market is particularly useful for negative events and stock prices for positive events. However, all indicators also send many false signals and are to be interpreted with care. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2006
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA in its journal Economic Notes.
Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026
Other versions of this item:
- Antonio Di Cesare, 2006. "Do market-based indicators anticipate rating agencies? Evidence for international banks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 593, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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