A New Way of Forecasting Recessions
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: EFG
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Edward E. Leamer, 2015. "Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 43-50, March.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019.
"Residential investment and recession predictability,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
- Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Andr� K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020.
"Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
- Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2018. "Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades," BIS Working Papers 726, Bank for International Settlements.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
- Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
- Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007.
"Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
- Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018.
"Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Working Papers 201903, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009.
"The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?,"
Working Paper
2009/26, Norges Bank.
- Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Sergio Zúñiga, 1999.
"Modelos de Tasas de Interés en Chile: Una Revisión,"
Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(108), pages 875-893.
- Sergio Zúñiga, 1999. "Modelos de Tasas de Interés en Chile: Una Revisión," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(108), pages 875-893.
- Hortensia Fontanals Albiol & Sergio Zuniga, 2002. "Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revision," Working Papers in Economics 87, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
- Todd J. BARRY, 2020. "Causes of the curve: Assessing risk in public and private financial economics," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 109-130, Summer.
- Van Landschoot, Astrid, 2004. "Determinants of euro term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper Series 397, European Central Bank.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001.
"La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
- Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018.
"Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?,"
Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Working Paper Series WP-2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013.
"News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
- André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
- Andre Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2012. "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2012-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Manfred Keil & Edward Leamer & Yao Li, 2023. "An investigation into the probability that this is the last year of the economic expansion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1228-1244, August.
- Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013.
"The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
- Céline Gimet & Marie-Hélène Gagnon, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Post-Print halshs-00976740, HAL.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.