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On the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Euro Area

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This paper analyses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Euro area utilizing a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with interaction between monetary policy and fiscal policy. The model consists of an IS curve, a Phillips curve, a term structure relation, a debt accumulation equation and a Taylor monetary policy rule supplemented with a Zero Lower Bound, and a fiscal policy rule. The model is calibrated/estimated for EU-16 countries for the period 1980Q1{2009Q4. The impact of the Global Financial Crisis is studied by means of impulse responses following a combined, prolonged aggregate demand and public debt shock. The simulation mimicking the GFC turns out to work fairly well. However, the required size of the shock is quite large.

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File URL: http://eprints.utas.edu.au/17209/1/2013-11_HeJacobsKuperLigthart_September2013.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 17209.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 16 Oct 2013
Date of revision: 16 Oct 2013
Publication status: Published by the University of Tasmania. Discussion paper 2013-11
Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:17209

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Web page: http://www.utas.edu.au/economics-finance/
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Keywords: Global Financial Crisis; euro area; monetary policy; fiscal policy; New Neoclassical Synthesis model; Zero Lower Bound;

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound: Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1218, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  4. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Paper Series 1132, European Central Bank.
  5. Tatiana Kirsanova & Sven Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2005. "The Interactions between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 532-564, Winter.
  6. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, 07.
  7. Shahrokhi, Manuchehr, 2011. "The Global Financial Crises of 2007–2010 and the future of capitalism," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 193-210.
  8. Berardi, Andrea, 2009. "Term Structure, Inflation, and Real Activity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 987-1011, August.
  9. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  11. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2011. "The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 502-511, March.
  12. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
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