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El perro y el frisbee

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  • Andrew G. Haldane
  • Vasileios Madouros
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    Abstract

    Este escrito analiza por qué el tipo de regulación financiera compleja desarrollado en las últimas décadas puede ser una respuesta subóptima a la creciente complejidad del sistema financiero. Los ejemplos de otras disciplinas muestran que la toma de decisiones en un entorno complejo se puede beneficiar con el uso de reglas prácticas simples o “heurísticas”. Una serie de experimentos empíricos para evaluar el desempeño relativo de las reglas simples y complejas en el entorno financiero muestra que los indicadores simples, como la relación de apalancamiento y las medidas de capital basadas en el mercado superan a las medidas más complejas ponderadas por el riesgo y a los modelos de múltiples indicadores en su capacidad para predecir quiebras bancarias. Un mensaje congruente de estos experimentos es que la complejidad de los modelos o los portafolios puede generar problemas de robustez. Presenta cinco lecciones de política a partir de estos resultados, relacionadas con el diseño de la regulación financiera y las posibles medidas encaminadas a reducir en forma más directa la complejidad del sistema financiero.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía in its journal Revista de Economía Institucional.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 27 (July-December)
    Pages: 13-56

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    Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:14:y:2012:i:27:p:13-56

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    Related research

    Keywords: crisis bancarias; regulación financiera; complejidad; estabilidad financiera;

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    References

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    1. Sofiya Avramova & Vanessa Le Leslé, 2012. "Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets," IMF Working Papers 12/90, International Monetary Fund.
    2. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    3. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2005. "Is There a Diversification Discount in Financial Conglomerates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrew G. Haldane, 2010. "La pregunta de los 100 mil millones," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 83-110, January-J.
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    10. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
    11. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
    12. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
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    14. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial Regulation in a System Context," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 229-274.
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