How Costly is Exchange Rate Stabilisation for an Inflation Targeter? The Case of Australia
AbstractThis paper quantifies the costs of mitigating exchange rate volatility within the context of a flexible inflation targeting central bank. Within a standard linear-quadratic formulation of inflation targeting, we append a term that penalises deviations in the exchange rate to the central bank's loss function. For a simple forward-looking new-Keynesian model, we show that the central bank can reduce volatility in the exchange rate relatively costlessly by aggressively responding to the real exchange rate. However, when we append correlated shocks to better match summary statistics of the Australian data, we find that the costs associated with reducing exchange rate volatility are larger: output volatility increases substantially. Finally, we apply our method to a variant of a small backward-looking new-Keynesian model of the Australian economy. Under this model, large increases in inflation and output volatility accrue if the central bank attempts to mitigate exchange rate volatility. Copyright © 2008 The Economic Society of Australia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.
Volume (Year): 84 (2008)
Issue (Month): 266 (09)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Central Council Administration, L.P.O. Box 2161, Hawthorn VIC 3122
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Mark Crosby & Tim Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2006. "How costly is exchange rate stabilisation for an inflation targeter? The case of Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004.
"Estimating the Euler equation for output,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Paper Series 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998.
"Risk and Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Linde, Jesper, 2005.
"Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
- Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Richard Dennis, 2002.
"Exploring the role of the real exchange rate in Australian monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Richard Dennis, 2003. "Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 20-38, 03.
- Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002.
"Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
- Arturo Extrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models," Working Papers 98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000.
"An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
- Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, . "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 1997-71, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Ulf Söderström & Paul Söderlind & Anders Vredin, 2005.
"New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re-examination of the Stylized Facts,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 521-546, 09.
- Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Reexamination of the Stylized Facts," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 511, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Aug 2003.
- Mark Crosby, 2000.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong,"
032000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Mark Crosby, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 606-623, November.
- Crosby, M., 2000. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 749, The University of Melbourne.
- repec:fip:fedfap:2004-17 is not listed on IDEAS
- Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
- Ivan Tchakarov & Paul Bergin, 2003.
"Does Exchange Rate Risk Matter for Welfare?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
61, Society for Computational Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.