IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/e/c/pgi49.html
   My authors  Follow this author

Domenico Giannone

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2016. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 201-215.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2017-06-16 20:15:00
    2. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-10-05 22:06:38
  2. Marc Giannoni & Domenico Giannone & Andrea Tambalotti & Marco Del Negro, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," 2017 Meeting Papers 803, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What’s happened so far with the return on safe and liquid assets?
      by ? in FRED blog on 2020-08-31 13:00:00
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Monti , Francesca & Reichlin , Lucrezia, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Bank of England working papers 509, Bank of England.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Hey, Economist! How Do You Forecast the Present?
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2017-06-16 20:15:00
    2. Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2014-10-05 22:06:38
  4. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Possible pitfalls of a 1-in-X approach to financial stability
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2020-02-06 09:00:00
  5. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15
      by Blog Author in Liberty Street Economics on 2019-07-12 15:27:59
    2. GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?
      by macroblog in Macroblog on 2018-02-13 18:29:31
    3. The "Scariest Spreadsheet In Fed Possession" Just Revealed A Very Scary Number For Q2 GDP
      by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge on 2015-05-01 00:03:58
  6. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Loadings
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2016-01-20 23:32:00
  7. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Così l’invecchiamento abbassa i tassi di interesse
      by Andrea Papetti in La Voce on 2021-05-25 21:55:46
  8. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. 34. Notable Women researchers on Economics
      by Euro American Association EAAEDS in Euro-American Association: World Development on 2018-10-09 19:52:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  2. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
  3. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Time Varying Parameters and Stochastic Volatility
  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
  5. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
    2. > Econometrics > Big Data
  6. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  7. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  8. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Forecasting
    2. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Nowcasting
    3. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  9. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models > Structural Factor Models
  11. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Big Data
  12. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > Dynamic Factor Models
  13. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
    2. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  14. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)
  15. Primiceri, Giorgio & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2016. "Priors for the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 11261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Bayesian Vector autoregressions (BVARs)

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models (REStat 2012) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Nowcasting (economics) in Wikipedia (English)
  4. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Large Bayesian vector auto regressions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    2. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.

  2. Lenza, Michele & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    2. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," Working Papers 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    3. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    5. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 175, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    7. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession," Papers 2007.15419, arXiv.org.
    9. Saiz, Lorena & Ashwin, Julian & Kalamara, Eleni, 2021. "Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: a tale of two crises," Working Paper Series 2616, European Central Bank.
    10. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    11. Iacopini, Matteo & Poon, Aubrey & Rossini, Luca & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "Bayesian mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of monthly US GDP," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Tesi Aliaj & Milos Ciganovic & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2023. "Nowcasting inflation with Lasso‐regularized vector autoregressions and mixed frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 464-480, April.
    13. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    15. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    16. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    17. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Papers 2301.10592, arXiv.org.
    18. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    20. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Performance of long short-term memory artificial neural networks in nowcasting during the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2203.11872, arXiv.org.

  3. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    3. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.

  4. Patrick A. Adams & Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & J. Nellie Liang & Eric Qian, 2020. "What Do Financial Conditions Tell Us about Risks to GDP Growth?," Liberty Street Economics 20200521, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    2. Kremer, Manfred & Chavleishvili, Sulkhan, 2021. "Measuring Systemic Financial Stress and its Impact on the Macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.
    4. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.

  5. Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & Anna Kovner, 2020. "Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth," Staff Reports 950, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Gloria González-Rivera & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz Ortega, 2021. "Expecting the unexpected: economic growth under stress," CREATES Research Papers 2021-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  6. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2023. "Testing Quantile Forecast Optimality," Papers 2302.02747, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    2. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Piotr Rubaj, 2021. "Risk Mitigation in Business Activities on Emerging Markets," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4B), pages 699-712.
    4. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    6. Jane M. Ryngaert, 2023. "Balance of Risks and the Anchoring of Consumer Expectations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Fischer, Manfred M. & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for modeling government bond yields," Working Papers in Regional Science 2021/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    9. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    10. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," MPRA Paper 111709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Noori, Mohammad & Hitaj, Asmerilda, 2023. "Dissecting hedge funds' strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    14. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    15. Nyholm, Juho & Voutilainen, Ville, 2021. "Quantiles of growth: Household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland," BoF Economics Review 2/2021, Bank of Finland.
    16. Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "High-frequency monitoring of growth at risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 582-595.
    17. Marian Vavra, 2023. "Bias-Correction in Time Series Quantile Regression Models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Iacopini, Matteo & Poon, Aubrey & Rossini, Luca & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "Bayesian mixed-frequency quantile vector autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of monthly US GDP," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    20. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness and the Business Cycle - Through the MIDAS Lens," CAMA Working Papers 2022-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields," Papers 2102.13393, arXiv.org.
    22. Michael P. Clements & Shixuan Wang, 2023. "Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-05, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    23. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    24. Daniel Gros, 2021. "High Public Debt in an Uncertain World: Post-Covid-19 Dangers for Public Finance," EconPol Policy Brief 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    25. Sharpe, Steven A. & Sinha, Nitish R. & Hollrah, Christopher A., 2023. "The power of narrative sentiment in economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1097-1121.
    26. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    27. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org.

  7. Boyarchenko, Nina & Adrian, Tobias & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    2. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schröder, 2023. "Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk," Working Papers No 06/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Florian, Huber & Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Schreiner, Josef, 2021. "Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs," Working Papers 2021-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 2020-62, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuno, 2019. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," PIER Working Paper Archive 19-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Alexander Georges Gretener & Matthias Neuenkirch & Dennis Umlandt, 2022. "Dynamic Mixture Vector Autoregressions with Score-Driven Weights," Working Paper Series 2022-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    9. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Engle, Robert F. & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy," Working Paper Series 2565, European Central Bank.
    11. Garratt, Anthony & Henckel, Timo & Vahey, Shaun P., 2023. "Empirically-transformed linear opinion pools," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 736-753.
    12. Yunyun Wang & Tatsushi Oka & Dan Zhu, 2023. "Distributional Vector Autoregression: Eliciting Macro and Financial Dependence," Papers 2303.04994, arXiv.org.
    13. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Andrea Prestipino, 2020. "Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 27481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    17. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    19. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    20. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.

  8. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2019. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?," Working Paper Series 2226, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Pedro J. Gutiérrez-Diez & Tibor Pàl, 2023. "Monetary policy models: lessons from the Eurozone crisis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    3. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    6. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    7. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    8. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Dajčman Silvo & Kavkler Alenka & Levenko Natalia & Romih Dejan, 2022. "Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 47-70, December.

  9. Giannone, Domenico & Tambalotti, Andrea & Sbordone, Argia & Bok, Brandyn & Caratelli, Daniele, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 12589, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. O'Rourke, Kevin & Ellison, Martin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    3. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    5. Valentina Aprigliano & Simone Emiliozzi & Gabriele Guaitoli & Andrea Luciani & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2021. "The power of text-based indicators in forecasting the Italian economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1321, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," Working Papers 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    7. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Görtz, Christoph & Yeromonahos, Mallory, 2022. "Asymmetries in risk premia, macroeconomic uncertainty and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    10. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    12. Pradeep Mishra & Khder Alakkari & Mostafa Abotaleb & Pankaj Kumar Singh & Shilpi Singh & Monika Ray & Soumitra Sankar Das & Umme Habibah Rahman & Ali J. Othman & Nazirya Alexandrovna Ibragimova & Gulf, 2021. "Nowcasting India Economic Growth Using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) Model (Empirical Study with Economic Policy Uncertainty–Consumer Prices Index)," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
    13. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    14. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    17. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M Sologon, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution and Poverty," Papers 2009.04037, arXiv.org.
    19. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    20. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Pérez, Javier J & Paredes, Joan, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
    22. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    23. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2019. "High-Dimensional Granger Causality Tests with an Application to VIX and News," Papers 1912.06307, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    24. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2022. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 333-345, April.
    25. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    26. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    27. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    28. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    29. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2020. "Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 5(3), pages 9-14, September.
    30. Zhang, Yixiao & Yu, Cindy L. & Li, Haitao, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP Using Dynamic Factor Model with Unknown Number of Factors and Stochastic Volatility: A Bayesian Approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-93.
    31. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    32. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    33. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    34. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    35. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    36. Jianhao Lin & Jiacheng Fan & Yifan Zhang & Liangyuan Chen, 2023. "Real‐time macroeconomic projection using narrative central bank communication," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 202-221, March.
    37. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke & Sang Seok Lee & Martin Ellison, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Working Papers 20200035, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised May 2020.
    39. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2020. "Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
    40. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    41. Alifatussaadah, Ardiana & Primariesty, Anindya Diva & Soleh, Agus Mohamad & Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2019. "Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?," MPRA Paper 105252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    43. Alexander James & Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa & Xiao Qiao, 2019. "Nowcasting Recessions using the SVM Machine Learning Algorithm," Papers 1903.03202, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    44. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    46. Daniel Hopp, 2021. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Papers 2106.08901, arXiv.org.
    47. Zhang, Wei & He, Jie & Ge, Chanyuan & Xue, Rui, 2022. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring using mixed frequency data: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    48. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    49. Ashton de Silva & Maria Yanotti & Sarah Sinclair & Sveta Angelopoulos, 2023. "Place‐Based Policies and Nowcasting," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 363-370, September.
    50. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    51. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2020. "Nowcasting Monthly GDP with Big Data: a Model Averaging Approach," CEIS Research Paper 482, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 May 2020.
    52. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    53. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    54. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    55. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    56. Morrissey, Karyn & Spooner, Fiona & Salter, James & Shaddick, Gavin, 2021. "Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    57. Michael Anthonisz, 2023. "Nowcasting Key Australian Macroeconomic Variables," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 371-380, September.
    58. Maaß, Christina Heike, 2021. "Nowcast als Forecast: Neue Verfahren der BIP-Prognose in Echtzeit," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 101-127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    59. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    60. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    61. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    62. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    63. Jeffrey C. Chen & Abe Dunn & Kyle Hood & Alexander Driessen & Andrea Batch, 2019. "Off to the Races: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Alternative Data for Predicting Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 373-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Samuel N. Cohen & Silvia Lui & Will Malpass & Giulia Mantoan & Lars Nesheim & 'Aureo de Paula & Andrew Reeves & Craig Scott & Emma Small & Lingyi Yang, 2023. "Nowcasting with signature methods," Papers 2305.10256, arXiv.org.
    65. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    66. Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "Nowcasting Peruvian GDP using Leading Indicators and Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 2018-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    67. Hayashi, Fumio & Tachi, Yuta, 2021. "The nowcast revision analysis extended," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    68. Yan Leng & Nakash Ali Babwany & Alex Pentland, 2021. "Unraveling the association between socioeconomic diversity and consumer price index in a tourism country," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    69. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    70. Ackermann, Arne & Dickopf, Xaver & Mucha, Tanja, 2021. "Flash und Nowcast: Schnellschätzungen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Corona-Pandemie," WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Wiesbaden, vol. 73(4), pages 17-28.
    71. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    72. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    74. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Gauging the Effect of Influential Observations on Measures of Relative Forecast Accuracy in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Application to Nowcasting Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers 2021/01, Latvijas Banka.
    75. Esady, Vania, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    76. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Performance of long short-term memory artificial neural networks in nowcasting during the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2203.11872, arXiv.org.

  10. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global Trends in Interest Rates," Working Papers 1812, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Financial integration or financial fragmentation? A euro area perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Chris Edmond & Richard Holden & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia's COVID‐19 Response," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 557-565, December.
    5. Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2024. "The Fiscal Arithmetic of a Slowdown in Trend Growth," Working Papers 308, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    6. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Carolyn St Aubyn, 2020. "Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Income," CESifo Working Paper Series 8162, CESifo.
    7. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Jean-Paul Renne, 2022. "Understanding Swiss real interest rates in a financially globalized world," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Goodhart, Charles & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P & Wang, Xuan, 2020. "Support for Small Businesses amid COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15055, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 26039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Calice,Pietro & Diaz Kalan,Federico Alfonso & Masetti,Oliver, 2020. "Interest Rate Repression : A New Database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9457, The World Bank.
    12. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    13. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
    14. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2020. "Harry Johnson’s “Case for Flexible Exchange Rates†– 50 Years Later," CEPR Discussion Papers 14488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Papetti, Andrea, 2019. "Demographics and the natural real interest rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2258, European Central Bank.
    17. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Linde, Jesper & Finocchiaro, Daria & Walentin, Karl & Chen, Jack, 2020. "The costs of macroprudential deleveraging in a liquidity trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 14564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Discussion Papers 25/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    21. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2021. "Trendwende in der demografischen Abhängigkeitsquote — Folgen für das Zinsniveau?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 316-318, April.
    23. Frank Smets, 2021. "Comment expliquer la faiblesse durable des taux directeurs dans la zone euro ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 47-60.
    24. Radoslaw (Radek) Stefanski & Alex Trew, 2020. "Patience Breeds Interest: The Rise of Societal Patience and the Fall of the Risk-free Interest Rate," Working Papers 2020-03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    25. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    27. Razzak, Weshah, 2020. "The Riddle of the Natural Rate of Interest," MPRA Paper 102663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2020.
    28. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    29. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.
    30. Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    31. Daniel Rees & Guofeng Sun, 2021. "The natural interest rate in China," BIS Working Papers 949, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2021. "Quid pro quo? Political ties and sovereign borrowing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    33. Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    34. Dr. Thomas Nitschka & Shajivan Satkurunathan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," Working Papers 2021-08, Swiss National Bank.
    35. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    36. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Mireille Jaeger, 2019. "La faiblesse du taux d'intérêt exprime-t-elle de nouvelles préférences de notre société à l'égard du futur ?," Post-Print halshs-02168824, HAL.
    38. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    39. Roberto M. Billi & Jordi Galí & Anton Nakov, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy with r," Economics Working Papers 1830, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    40. Westerhout, Ed & Meijdam, Lex & Ponds, Eduard & Bonenkamp, Jan, 2022. "Should we revive PAYG? On the optimal pension system in view of current economic trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    41. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    42. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    43. Andrade Philippe, & Galí Jordi, & Le Bihan Hervé, & Matheron Julien., 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working papers 811, Banque de France.
    44. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    45. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Łukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," NBER Working Papers 26198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    48. Mohamed Belkhir & Sami Ben Naceur & Mr. Ralph Chami & Anis Semet, 2019. "Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity," IMF Working Papers 2019/265, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Guillaume Horny & Supriya Kapoor, 2021. "Investment Response to Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from the ECB's Corporate QE," Trinity Economics Papers tep1121, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    50. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Harry Johnson's “Case for flexible exchange rates”—50 years later," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 86-113, September.
    51. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    52. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    53. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    54. Renzhi, Nuobu, 2022. "Do house prices play a role in unconventional monetary policy transmission in Japan?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    55. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 527-552.
    56. Niko Hauzenberger & Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart & Cédric Tille, 2022. "What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020," IRENE Working Papers 22-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    57. Gaetano Bloise & Pietro Reichlin, 2023. "Low safe interest rates: A case for dynamic inefficiency?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 633-656, December.
    58. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Heterogeneity, co-movements and financial fragmentation within the euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 927, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    59. Cooke, Dudley & Kara, Engin, 2022. "The role of heterogeneity in price rigidities for delayed nominal exchange rate overshooting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    60. Jongrim Ha, 2021. "Financial market spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1221-1274, November.
    61. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Bailey, Andrew & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Garofalo, Marco & Harrison, Richard & McLaren, Nick & Sajedi, Rana & Piton, Sophie, 2023. "Structural change, global R* and the missing-investment puzzle," Bank of England working papers 997, Bank of England.
    63. Murota, Ryu-ichiro, 2022. "The effect of a decline in the world real interest rate on a small open economy experiencing persistent stagnation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    64. Thanh Cong Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political economy of financial crisis duration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 309-330, September.
    65. Inda Mulaahmetovic, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing Measures of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(3), pages 141-163.
    66. Wang, Olivier, 2020. "Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2492, European Central Bank.
    67. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2020. "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Juvenal José Duarte & Sahudy Montenegro González & José César Cruz, 2021. "Predicting Stock Price Falls Using News Data: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 311-340, January.
    69. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    70. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    71. Engel, Charles, 2020. "Safe U.S. Assets and U.S. Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    72. Schünemann, Johannes & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2023. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Aging," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277593, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    73. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    74. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    75. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org.
    76. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    77. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    78. Carolin Schellhorn, 2020. "Financial System Stability, the Timing of Climate Change Action and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(3), pages 45-59.
    79. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    80. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    81. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    82. Carlos Carvalho & Andrea Ferrero & Felipe Mazin & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," Working Paper Series 2023-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    83. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez & Gabriel Mathy, 2024. "The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2024-01er:dp2024-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    84. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    85. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    86. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    87. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Estimating Impact of Age Distribution on Bond Pricing: A Semiparametric Functional Data Analysis Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    88. Clemens Fuest & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Low Interest Rates: Global Causes and Policy Implications for Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 3-6, April.
    89. Takao Asano & Xiaojing Cai & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Time-varying ambiguity shocks and business cycles," KIER Working Papers 1094, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    90. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    91. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
    92. Chen, Chaoyi & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Maynard, Alex & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "Long-horizon stock valuation and return forecasts based on demographic projections," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-215.
    93. Gross, Jonas & Zahner, Johannes, 2021. "What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    94. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "General Bayesian time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 69-87, January.
    95. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    96. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2023. "Demographic Change, Government Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: The Impact of Bond Purchase by the Bank of Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 88-105, October.
    97. Corradin, Stefano & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

  11. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Martina Hengge, 2019. "Uncertainty as a Predictor of Economic Activity," IHEID Working Papers 19-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Richard K. Crump & João A. C. Santos, 2018. "Review of New York Fed studies on the effects of post-crisis banking reforms," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-2, pages 71-90.
    3. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    4. Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone & Or Shachar, 2018. "Flighty liquidity," Staff Reports 870, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

  12. S. Delle Chiaie & L. Ferrara & D. Giannone, 2017. "Common Factors of Commodity Prices," Working papers 645, Banque de France.

    Cited by:

    1. Bajraj, Gent & Lorca, Jorge & Wlasiuk, Juan M., 2023. "On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CEPR Discussion Papers 14047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    4. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    5. Di Pace, Federico & Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Terms-of-trade shocks are not all alike," Bank of England working papers 901, Bank of England.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    7. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    9. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Working Papers 2006, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    14. Florentina Paraschiv & Stine Marie Reese & Margrethe Ringkjøb Skjelstad, 2020. "Portfolio stress testing applied to commodity futures," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 203-240, June.
    15. Schmidt, Torsten & Kirsch, Florian & Dirks, Maximilian W., 2021. "Kurzfristige Perspektiven der Rohstoffpreisentwicklung," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 251878.
    16. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    17. Ferreiro Javier Ojea, 2019. "Structural change in the link between oil and the European stock market: implications for risk management," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 53-125, January.
    18. Indrė Lapinskaitė & Algita Miečinskienė, 2019. "Assessment of the Impact of Hard Commodity Prices Changes on Inflation in European Union Countries," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(5), pages 18-35.
    19. Anthony Garratt & Ivan Petrella, 2022. "Commodity prices and inflation risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 392-414, March.
    20. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    21. Qian, Chenqi & Zhang, Tianding & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    22. Nam, Kyungsik, 2021. "Investigating the effect of climate uncertainty on global commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    23. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    24. Dario Caldara & Michele Cavallo & Matteo Iacoviello, 2016. "Oil Price Elasticities and Oil Price Fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1173, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Kwas, Marek & Paccagnini, Alessia & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Common factors and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    26. Sun, Yiqun & Ji, Hao & Cai, Xiurong & Li, Jiangchen, 2023. "Joint extreme risk of energy prices-evidence from European energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    27. Metallinos Pavlos, 2022. "Failure Case of Earned Value Method (EVM): The “Absurd” of the Use of Management & Contingency Reserves Budgeting," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 41-75, January.
    28. Matsumoto, Akito & Pescatori, Andrea & Wang, Xueliang, 2023. "Commodity prices and global economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    29. Raphael Chiappini & Delphine Lahet, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," Post-Print hal-03431453, HAL.
    30. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2017. "Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities," CEPR Discussion Papers 12357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    32. Dudda, Tom L. & Klein, Tony & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Common Drivers of Commodity Futures?," QBS Working Paper Series 2022/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    33. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    34. Marek Kwas & Alessia Paccagnini & Michal Rubaszek, 2020. "Common factors and the dynamics of cereal prices. A forecasting perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2020-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    35. Diaz, Elena Maria & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2505, European Central Bank.
    36. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    37. Andrés Fernández & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/280, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    39. Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen & Robert Wichmann, 2021. "The dynamics of commodity return comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1597-1617, October.
    40. Delle Chiaie, S., 2015. "The fall in oil prices in 2014: the role of supply and demand components," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 12, October..
    41. Theodora Bermpei & Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Jebreel Alshalahi, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Post-Print hal-04129400, HAL.
    42. Claudia Wellenreuther, 2021. "Konjunkturschlaglicht: Rohstoffpreise: Superzyklus oder Aufschwung? [Economic headline: Commodity prices: Supercycle or upswing?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 663-664, August.
    43. Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "Forecasting Net Charge-Off Rates of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies using Macroeconomic Latent Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    44. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2019. "Forecasting prices of selected metals with Bayesian data-rich models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    45. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    46. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "The price of crude oil and (conditional) out-of-sample predictability of world industrial production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    47. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    48. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    51. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices," Staff Analytical Notes 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    52. Vietha Devia SS, 2019. "Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Variables (Case Study of Indonesia as Emerging Economic Country)," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(5), pages 257-271.
    53. Laurent Ferrara & Aikaterina Karadimitropoulou & Athanasios Triantafyllou & Theodora Bermpei, 2022. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04159791, HAL.
    54. Antoine A. Djogbenou, 2024. "Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-149, January.

  13. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2017. "Economic Predictions with Big Data: The Illusion Of Sparsity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Staff Reports 847, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Matteo Iacopini & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Bayesian nonparametric graphical models for time-varying parameters VAR," Papers 1906.02140, arXiv.org.
    3. Daniele Bianchi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2018. "Large-Scale Dynamic Predictive Regressions," Papers 1803.06738, arXiv.org.
    4. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    5. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    6. Kuppenheimer, Gregory & Shelly, Stuart & Strauss, Jack, 2023. "Can machine learning identify sector-level financial ratios that predict sector returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Ba Chu & Shafiullah Qureshi, 2021. "Comparing Out-of-Sample Performance of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast U.S. GDP Growth," Carleton Economic Papers 21-12, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    8. Gaetan Bakalli & St'ephane Guerrier & Olivier Scaillet, 2022. "A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia," Papers 2208.00972, arXiv.org.
    9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    11. Yong Cai & Santiago Camara & Nicholas Capel, 2021. "It's not always about the money, sometimes it's about sending a message: Evidence of Informational Content in Monetary Policy Announcements," Papers 2111.06365, arXiv.org.
    12. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
    13. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    14. Smith, Simon C., 2022. "Time-variation, multiple testing, and the factor zoo," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Yi He & Sombut Jaidee & Jiti Gao, 2020. "Most Powerful Test against High Dimensional Free Alternatives," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus & Franco Peracchi, 2022. "Asymptotic properties of the weighted-average least squares (WALS) estimator," EIEF Working Papers Series 2203, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2022.
    18. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2020. "Out of sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates," UC3M Working papers. Economics 31554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian T. Brownlees, 2013. "Nets: Network estimation for time series," Economics Working Papers 1391, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Papers 2009.03394, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    21. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Papers 1809.03031, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    22. Antonio Marsi, 2023. "Predicting European stock returns using machine learning," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-25, July.
    23. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
    24. Mckenzie,David J. & Sansone,Dario & Mckenzie,David J. & Sansone,Dario, 2017. "Man vs. machine in predicting successful entrepreneurs : evidence from a business plan competition in Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8271, The World Bank.
    25. Matteo Barigozzi & Daniele Massacci, 2022. "Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models," Papers 2210.09828, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    26. Yuan Liao & Xinjie Ma & Andreas Neuhierl & Zhentao Shi, 2023. "Economic Forecasts Using Many Noises," Papers 2312.05593, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    27. Jad Beyhum & Jonas Striaukas, 2023. "Sparse plus dense MIDAS regressions and nowcasting during the COVID pandemic," Papers 2306.13362, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    28. Maehashi, Kohei & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using factor models and machine learning: an application to Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    29. Mauro Bernardi & Daniele Bianchi & Nicolas Bianco, 2022. "Variational inference for large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Papers 2202.12644, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    30. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    31. Mike West, 2020. "Reply to Discussion of “Bayesian forecasting of multivariate time series: scalability, structure uncertainty and decisions”," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(1), pages 41-44, February.
    32. Kalamara, Eleni & Turrell, Arthur & Redl, Chris & Kapetanios, George & Kapadia, Sujit, 2020. "Making text count: economic forecasting using newspaper text," Bank of England working papers 865, Bank of England.
    33. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    34. Nicolas Woloszko, 2020. "Tracking activity in real time with Google Trends," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1634, OECD Publishing.
    35. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    36. Smith, Simon C. & Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Variable selection in panel models with breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 323-344.
    37. Natalia Bailey & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Measurement of factor strength: Theory and practice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 587-613, August.
    38. Achim Ahrens & Christian B. Hansen & Mark E. Schaffer & Thomas Wiemann, 2024. "Model Averaging and Double Machine Learning," Papers 2401.01645, arXiv.org.
    39. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    40. Galbraith, John W. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 2020. "Simple and reliable estimators of coefficients of interest in a model with high-dimensional confounding effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 609-632.
    41. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    42. Georges, Christophre & Pereira, Javier, 2021. "Market stability with machine learning agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    43. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2023. "gingado: a machine learning library focused on economics and finance," BIS Working Papers 1122, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Papers 2012.11649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    46. Joao Vitor Matos Goncalves & Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "ARIMA and LSTM: A Comparative Analysis of Financial Time Series Forecasting," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    47. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning," Working Paper Series 2494, European Central Bank.
    48. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    50. Lee, Ji Hyung & Shi, Zhentao & Gao, Zhan, 2022. "On LASSO for predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(2), pages 322-349.
    51. Belloni, Alexandre & Chen, Mingli & Madrid Padilla, Oscar Hernan & Wang, Zixuan (Kevin), 2019. "High Dimensional Latent Panel Quantile Regression with an Application to Asset Pricing," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1230, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    52. Christian B. Hansen & Mark E. Schaffer & Thomas Wiemann & Achim Ahrens, 2022. "ddml: Double/debiased machine learning in Stata," Swiss Stata Conference 2022 02, Stata Users Group.
    53. Krampe, J. & Paparoditis, E. & Trenkler, C., 2023. "Structural inference in sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 276-300.
    54. Jack Jewson & Li Li & Laura Battaglia & Stephen Hansen & David Rossell & Piotr Zwiernik, 2022. "Graphical model inference with external network data," CeMMAP working papers 20/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    55. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    56. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
    57. Alena Skolkova, 2023. "Model Averaging with Ridge Regularization," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp758, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    58. Ke-Li Xu & Junjie Guo, 2021. "A New Test for Multiple Predictive Regression," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    59. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    60. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    61. He, Yi & Jaidee, Sombut & Gao, Jiti, 2023. "Most powerful test against a sequence of high dimensional local alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 151-177.
    62. Jianqing Fan & Ricardo Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2021. "Bridging factor and sparse models," Papers 2102.11341, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    63. Bryzgalova, Svetlana & Huang, Jiantao & Julliard, Christian, 2020. "Bayesian solutions for the factor zoo: we just ran two quadrillion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118924, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    64. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide & Boyuan Zhang, 2023. "Bayesian Estimation of Panel Models under Potentially Sparse Heterogeneity," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    65. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    66. Daniel Borup & Bent Jesper Christensen & Nicolaj N{o}rgaard Muhlbach & Mikkel Slot Nielsen, 2020. "Targeting predictors in random forest regression," Papers 2004.01411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    67. Shi, Zhentao & Huang, Jingyi, 2023. "Forward-selected panel data approach for program evaluation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 512-535.
    68. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    69. Alena Skolkova, 2023. "Instrumental Variable Estimation with Many Instruments Using Elastic-Net IV," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp759, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    70. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2024. "Global bank network connectedness revisited: What is common, idiosyncratic and when?," Papers 2402.02482, arXiv.org.
    71. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    72. Paranhos, Livia, 2021. "Predicting Inflation with Neural Networks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1344, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    73. Arnaud Dufays & Zhuo Li & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Yong Song, 2021. "Sparse change‐point VAR models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 703-727, September.
    74. Ba Chu & Shafiullah Qureshi, 2023. "Comparing Out-of-Sample Performance of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast U.S. GDP Growth," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1567-1609, December.
    75. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    76. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    77. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2023. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 533-555, June.
    78. Luis Gruber & Gregor Kastner, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!," Papers 2206.04902, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

  14. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest," Staff Reports 812, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Cited by:

    1. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 24529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman, 2018. "Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2024. "The Fiscal Arithmetic of a Slowdown in Trend Growth," Working Papers 308, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2015. "Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 21670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian, 2019. "The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r," CEPR Discussion Papers 14201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Massimo Guidolin, 2020. "Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets," Working Papers 667, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Jean-Marc Natal & Nicolas Stoffels, 2019. "Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate," IMF Working Papers 2019/095, International Monetary Fund.
    9. John C. Williams, 2018. "The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2020. "What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices," Working Paper Series 2018-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    12. Fabio Busetti & Stefano Neri & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2020. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: a model-based analysis for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1308, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    15. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2018. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in an Environment of Low Interest Rates," 2018 Meeting Papers 574, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "Inequality, the risk of secular stagnation and the increase in household deb," Working Paper Research 375, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi & Matthias Rottner, 2019. "Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target," Working Paper Series WP-2019-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    18. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    19. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    20. Piguillem, Facundo & Grasso, Adriana & Passadore, Juan, 2020. "The Macroeconomics of Hedging Income Shares," CEPR Discussion Papers 14732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Interest Rates Under Falling Stars," Working Paper Series 2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    23. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2019. "The Firm Size and Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Concentration in a Low Interest Rate World," 2019 Meeting Papers 1041, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
    25. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "The Federal Reserve's Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 5-71, February.
    26. Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2019. "Interest rates, moneyness, and the Fisher equation," 2019 Meeting Papers 1409, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
    28. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2017. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in a World of Low Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP-2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    29. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Mehrotra, Neil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Richard Clarida, 2018. "The global factor in neutral policy rates: Some implications for exchange rates, monetary policy, and policy coordination," BIS Working Papers 732, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Discussion Papers 25/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    33. Dennis Bonam, 2020. "A convenient truth: The convenience yield, low interest rates and implications for fiscal policy," Working Papers 700, DNB.
    34. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2021. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," Working Paper Series 2612, European Central Bank.
    35. Raslan Alzuabi & Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2021. "The risk‐taking channel in the United States: A GVAR approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5826-5849, October.
    36. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    38. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    39. Alessandro Cantelmo, 2020. "Rare disasters, the natural interest rate and monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1309, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim & Otterson, James, 2023. "Quantifying the uncertainty of long-term macroeconomic projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    41. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2018. "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," Working Papers 18-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    42. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño & Omar Rachedi, 2023. "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound," CESifo Working Paper Series 10471, CESifo.
    43. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    44. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    45. Michael Woodford & Yinxi Xie, 2021. "Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight," Staff Working Papers 21-51, Bank of Canada.
    46. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    47. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    48. Bofinger, Peter & Haas, Thomas, 2023. "R-star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 106, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    49. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    50. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.
    51. Daudignon, Sandra & Tristani, Oreste, 2023. "Monetary policy and the drifting natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2788, European Central Bank.
    52. Reuven Glick, 2019. "R* and the Global Economy," Working Paper Series 2019-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    53. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2016. "Understanding the New Normal : The Role of Demographics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    54. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Enrique Sentana, 2018. "The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate," Working Paper series 18-29, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    55. Alzuabi, Raslan & Caglayan, Mustafa & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2020. "The Risk-Taking Channel in the US: A GVAR Approach," MPRA Paper 101391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2023. "The Firm Size-Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 132-157, April.
    57. Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Pigouvian Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 977, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    58. Ansgar Rannenberg, 2019. "State dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assests," Working Paper Research 374, National Bank of Belgium.
    59. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    60. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    61. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    62. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    63. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Working Papers e120, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    64. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi & SUDO, Nao & HOGEN, Yoshihiko & TAKIZUKA, Yasutaka, 2023. "On the estimation of the natural yield curve," Discussion Paper Series 753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    65. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2018. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates," NBER Working Papers 25288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    66. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    67. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    68. Fernando M. Duarte, 2016. "How to escape a liquidity trap with interest rate rules," Staff Reports 776, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    69. Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms," Working Paper Series WP-2018-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    70. Michael Chin & Ferre De Graeve & Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Understanding International Long-term Interest Rate Comovement," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 147-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    71. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    72. Kurt F. Lewis & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2017. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : A Note on Transitory Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Aguilar, Pablo & Vázquez, Jesús, 2021. "An Estimated Dsge Model With Learning Based On Term Structure Information," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(7), pages 1635-1665, October.
    74. Capraro, Santiago & Panico, Carlo & Torres-Gonzalez, Luis Daniel, 2021. "The persistent and generalised decline in the U. S. interest rates: an alternative interpretation," MPRA Paper 110181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    76. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    77. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp & Caballero, Ricardo, 2019. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    78. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    79. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    80. Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    81. Francesco Bianchi, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," 2017 Meeting Papers 500, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    82. Niko Hauzenberger & Daniel Kaufmann & Rebecca Stuart & Cédric Tille, 2022. "What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020," IRENE Working Papers 22-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    83. Bianca Barbaro & Giorgio Massari & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Who killed business dynamism in the U.S.?," Working Papers 494, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2022.
    84. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Galí & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2017. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Working Papers 1009, Barcelona School of Economics.
    85. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 201," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    86. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cao, Dan & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & Luo, Wenlan, 2018. "The forward fiscal guidance puzzle and a resolution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-46.
    87. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.
    88. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd & Zou, Feina, 2023. "The role of macroeconomic uncertainty in the determination of the natural rate of interest," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    89. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    90. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    91. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2018. "Real interest rates, exchange rates and the ZLB: on Secular Stagnation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-032/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 28 Oct 2018.
    92. Jing Cynthia Wu & Ji Zhang, 2016. "A Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    93. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2018. "The side effects of safe asset creation," Staff Reports 842, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    94. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    95. Hasui, Kohei & Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Sugo, Tomohiro, 2021. "Optimal irreversible monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    96. Kevin J. Lansing, 2019. "Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    97. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(S1), pages 21-49, September.
    98. M. Marx & B. Mojon & F. Velde, 2017. "Why Have Interest Rates Fallen far Below the Return on Capital," Working papers 630, Banque de France.
    99. Stephen Williamson, 2019. "Neo-Fisherism and inflation control," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 882-913, August.
    100. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    101. Zarazúa Juárez, Carlos Alberto, 2023. "Understanding the natural rate of interest for a small open economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    102. Stephen D. Williamson, 2017. "Low Real Interest Rates and the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    103. Allan W. Gregory & James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2022. "US Fiscal Policy Shocks: Proxy-SVAR Overidentification via GMM," Working Paper 1461, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    104. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    105. Hess T. Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2019. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound : Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    106. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    107. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    108. Sanjay R. Singh & Nicolas Caramp, 2020. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 336, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    109. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    110. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    111. Cipriani, Marco & La Spada, Gabriele, 2021. "Investors’ appetite for money-like assets: The MMF industry after the 2014 regulatory reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 250-269.
    112. Emmanuel Farhi & François Gourio, 2019. "What is Driving the Return Spread Between “Safe” and “Risky” Assets?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    113. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    114. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    115. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    116. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2020. "The Firm Size and Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration," Working Papers 20-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    117. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    118. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Term structure and real-time learning," Working Papers 1803, Banco de España.
    119. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    120. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    121. Brandyn Bok & Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2022. "Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds," Staff Reports 1011, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    122. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    123. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2717-2749, November.
    124. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    125. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    126. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718.
    127. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.
    128. Alex Clymo, 2018. "Firm Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," 2018 Meeting Papers 912, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    129. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    130. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2018. "Do Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Theories Hold in Japan? : Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of Bond Purchases," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    131. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    132. Ferrante, Francesco, 2019. "Risky lending, bank leverage and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 100-127.
    133. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    134. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    135. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    136. Bianca Barbaro & Patrizio Tirelli, 2023. "Forbearance vs foreclosure in a general equilibrium model," Working Papers 516, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    137. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2019. "Without looking closer, it may seem cheap: Low interest rates and government borrowing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 28-32.
    138. Lucas Herrenbrueck, Zijian Wang, 2023. "Interest Rates, Moneyness, and the Fisher Equation," Discussion Papers dp23-11, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    139. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    140. Wang, Bin & Kwan, Yum K., 2021. "Measuring the natural rates of interest of OECD and BRICS economies: A time varying perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    141. Andrea Ajello & Isabel Cairó & Vasco Curdia & Thomas A. Lubik & Albert Queraltó, 2020. "Monetary Policy Tradeoffs and the Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  15. Primiceri, Giorgio & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2016. "Priors for the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 11261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Niko Hauzenberger & Michael Pfarrhofer & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Sparse time-varying parameter VECMs with an application to modeling electricity prices," Papers 2011.04577, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    3. Luc Bauwens & Guillaume Chevillon & Sébastien Laurent, 2023. "We modeled long memory with just one lag!," Post-Print hal-04185755, HAL.
    4. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    5. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    6. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    7. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2021. "Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2107.07804, arXiv.org.
    8. Marek Jarocinski & Albert Marcet, 2013. "Priors about Observables in Vector Autoregressions," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 929.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    9. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "Large time-varying parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1122, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2023. "Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models," Working Papers Series 574, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    13. Paul Ho, 2020. "Global Robust Bayesian Analysis in Large Models," Working Paper 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1296, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    16. Lieb, Lenard & Smeekes, Stephan, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies," Working Papers No 10/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Mr. Nooman Rebei & Rashid Sbia, 2020. "Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil," IMF Working Papers 2020/047, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ciobotaru, Corina & Mazza, Christian, 2022. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of M-estimates of scatter on Grassmann manifolds," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    21. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    23. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    24. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    25. George ANTON, 2022. "The importance of demand, uncertainty and monetary policy shocks from the euro area for the Romanian economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 25-38, Summer.
    26. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    27. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    28. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    29. Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Working Paper Series 2602, European Central Bank.
    30. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    31. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    32. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    33. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    34. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    35. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    37. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    38. Lusompa, Amaze, 2019. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," MPRA Paper 99856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2020.
    39. Wang,Dieter & Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro Elizondo,Andres Fernando & Spencer,Phoebe Girouard, 2020. "Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9413, The World Bank.
    40. Paci, Lucia & Consonni, Guido, 2020. "Structural learning of contemporaneous dependencies in graphical VAR models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    41. Andrle, Michal & Plašil, Miroslav, 2018. "Econometrics with system priors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 134-137.
    42. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    43. Drago, Bergholt & Furlanetto, Francesco & Faccioli, Nicolò Maffei, 2019. "The decline of the labor share: new empirical evidence," Working Paper 2019/18, Norges Bank.
    44. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.

  16. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2016. "Vulnerable Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 11583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kirti, Divya, 2018. "Lending standards and output growth," ESRB Working Paper Series 79, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Estimating growth at risk with skewed stochastic volatility models," Discussion Papers 2022/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?," EMF Research Papers 33, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    6. Anastasiya Ivanova & Alona Shmygel & Ihor Lubchuk, 2021. "The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) Framework: Implication For Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 10-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Ji Hyung Lee & Youngki Shin, 2020. "Complete Subset Averaging for Quantile Regressions," Papers 2003.03299, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    11. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O’Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & Berge, Lukas von dem, 2021. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Working Paper Series 2538, European Central Bank.
    12. Jose Garcia Revelo & Grégory Levieuge, 2022. "When could Macroprudential and Monetary Policies be in Conflict?," Post-Print hal-03857504, HAL.
    13. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
    14. Aleksei Kipriyanov, 2022. "Comparison of Models for Growth-at-Risk Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 23-45, March.
    15. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    16. Filardo, Andrew & Lombardi, Marco & Raczko, Marek, 2019. "Measuring financial cycle time," Bank of England working papers 776, Bank of England.
    17. Luca Rossi, 2021. "Revisiting the Case for a Fiscal Union: the Federal Fiscal Channel of Downside-Risk Sharing in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1351, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Zhanna Chupina & Irina Abanina & Valery Abramov & Kira Artamonova & Oksana Yurchenko & Irina Osipova & Pavel Stroev, 2021. "Management of Monetary Policy in the Framework of Decision Making on Setting Interest Rates for Sustainable Social System: Example of the Russian Federation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts-Stedman & Kristin Forbes, 2021. "Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Yoshihiko Norimasa & Kazuki Ueda & Tomohiro Watanabe, 2021. "Emerging Economies' Vulnerability to Changes in Capital Flows: The Role of Global and Local Factors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    21. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    22. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    24. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan J. & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2020. "Quantile Factor Models," IZA Discussion Papers 13870, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Maria Elvira Mancino & Simona Sanfelici, 2020. "Identifying financial instability conditions using high frequency data," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 221-242, January.
    26. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    27. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    28. Fischer, Manfred M. & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for modeling government bond yields," Working Papers in Regional Science 2021/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    29. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    30. Olga Bespalova & Mrs. Marina V Rousset, 2019. "Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2019/246, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Fernando Eguren-Martin & Andrej Sokol, 2022. "Attention to the Tail(s): Global Financial Conditions and Exchange Rate Risks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 487-519, September.
    32. Suarez, Javier & Mendicino, Caterina & Nikolov, Kalin & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Supera, Dominik, 2020. "Twin Defaults and Bank Capital Requirements," CEPR Discussion Papers 14427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Eduardo C. Castro, 2020. "RegGae: a toolkit for macroprudential policy with DSGEs," Working Papers Series 526, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    34. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
    35. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    36. Falconio, Andrea & Manganelli, Simone, 2020. "Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth at risk," Working Paper Series 2470, European Central Bank.
    37. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    38. Nam Gang Lee, 2020. "Vulnerable Growth: A Revisit," Working Papers 2020-22, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    39. Tobias Adrian & Fernando M. Duarte & Federico Grinberg & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, 2019. "Monetary policy and financial conditions: a cross-country study," Staff Reports 890, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    40. Lloyd, S. & Manuel, E. & Panchev, K., 2021. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2102, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    41. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices – You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," Working Papers 2020:13, Örebro University, School of Business.
    42. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rots, Eyno, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    44. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Burgess, Stephen & Galletly, Richard & Levina, Iren & O'Neill, Cian & Varadi, Alexandra, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
    45. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache & Claudia Pacella, 2020. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1288, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    46. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "What anchors for the natural rate of interest?," BIS Working Papers 777, Bank for International Settlements.
    47. Poloz, Stephen S., 2021. "Technological progress and monetary policy: Managing the fourth industrial revolution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    48. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Engle, Robert F. & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy," Working Paper Series 2565, European Central Bank.
    49. Richard K. Crump & Miro Everaert & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Staff Reports 850, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    50. Florens Odendahl & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Evaluating Forecast Performance with State Dependence," Working Papers 1295, Barcelona School of Economics.
    51. Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2022. "Financial conditions and macroeconomic downside risks in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    52. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "How do policies influence GDP tail risks?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1339, OECD Publishing.
    53. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Owyang, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data," EMF Research Papers 38, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    54. Kashif Yousuf & Serena Ng, 2019. "Boosting High Dimensional Predictive Regressions with Time Varying Parameters," Papers 1910.03109, arXiv.org.
    55. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    56. Mr. Gaston Gelos & Lucyna Gornicka & Mr. Robin Koepke & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2019. "Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows," IMF Working Papers 2019/279, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2020. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
    59. Nyholm, Juho & Voutilainen, Ville, 2021. "Quantiles of growth: Household debt and growth vulnerabilities in Finland," BoF Economics Review 2/2021, Bank of Finland.
    60. González-Rivera, Gloria & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Maldonado, Javier, 2018. "Growth in Stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 26623, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    61. Anna Cieslak & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2020. "The Economics of the Fed Put," NBER Working Papers 26894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. Michael T. Kiley, 2022. "Unemployment Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1407-1424, August.
    63. Niango Ange Joseph Yapi, 2020. "Exchange rate predictive densities and currency risks: A quantile regression approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    64. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning," Working Paper Series 2494, European Central Bank.
    65. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    66. Noh-Sun Kwark & Changhyun Lee, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Financial Conditions on GDP Growth in Korea: A Quantile Regression Analysis," Working Papers 2005, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    67. Michael T. Kiley, 2021. "Growth at Risk From Climate Change," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Geert Bekaert & Eric C. Engstrom & Nancy R. Xu, 2019. "The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Nicholas Apergis, 2019. "Financial Vulnerability And Income Inequality: New Evidence From Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-14, January.
    70. Helena Chuliá & Ignacio Garrón & Jorge M. Uribe, 2021. ""Vulnerable Funding in the Global Economy"," IREA Working Papers 202106, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2021.
    71. Figueres, Juan Manuel & Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Vulnerable growth in the euro area: Measuring the financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    72. Giancarlo Corsetti & Anna Lipinska & Giovanni Lombardo, 2021. "Sharing Asymmetric Tail Risk: Smoothing, Asset Prices and Terms of Trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 1324, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Rui Mano & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2020. "One Shock, Many Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 2020/010, International Monetary Fund.
    74. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    75. Korobilis, Dimitris & Landau, Bettina & Musso, Alberto & Phella, Anthoulla, 2021. "The time-varying evolution of inflation risks," Working Paper Series 2600, European Central Bank.
    76. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Lorenzo Ductor, 2019. "Fluctuations in Global Macro Volatility," Working Papers 1925, Banco de España.
    77. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
    78. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    79. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    80. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    81. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    82. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    83. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2021. "Financial condition indices for emerging market economies: can Google help?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 653, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    84. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    85. Milan Szabo & Zlatuse Komarkova & Martin Casta, 2020. "Vulnerable growth: Bayesian GDP-at-Risk," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    86. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    87. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2022. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 33-64, April.
    88. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Javier Suarez, 2020. "Twin Default Crises," Working Papers 2020-01, FEDEA.
    89. Dong Jin Lee & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2020. "Impulse response analysis in conditional quantile models with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2020/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    90. María Victoria Landaberry & Rodrigo Lluberas & Micaela Vidal, 2021. "Una aplicación de la metodología Growth at Risk a Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2021009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    91. Dominic Anene & Stefania D'Amico, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    92. Anna Burova & Alexey Ponomarenko & Svetlana Popova & Andrey Sinyakov & Yulia Ushakova, 2022. "Measuring Heterogeneity in Banks’ Interest Rate Setting in Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(14), pages 4103-4119, November.
    93. Ampudia, Miguel & Lo Duca, Marco & Farkas, Mátyás & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Pirovano, Mara & Rünstler, Gerhard & Tereanu, Eugen, 2021. "On the effectiveness of macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2559, European Central Bank.
    94. Robert J. Barro & Gordon Y. Liao, 2019. "Tractable Rare Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    95. Manfred M. Fischer & Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields," Papers 2102.13393, arXiv.org.
    96. Stephen Millard, & Margarita Rubio & Alexandra Varadi, 2020. "The impact of Covid-19 on productivity," Discussion Papers 2020/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    97. Pietro Dindo & Andrea Modena & Loriana Pelizzon, 2019. "Risk Pooling, Leverage, and the Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 7772, CESifo.
    98. Emanuele De Meo & Giacomo Tizzanini, 2021. "GDP‐network CoVaR: A tool for assessing growth‐at‐risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(2), July.
    99. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    100. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Pierdzioch, Christian & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Disaggregated oil shocks and stock-market tail risks: Evidence from a panel of 48 economics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    101. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Capturing GDP nowcast uncertainty in real time," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    102. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "The impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks," Discussion Papers 14/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    103. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Sánchez-Martínez, Manuel, 2022. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: Does financial development break the link?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    104. Aikman, David & Bluwstein, Kristina & Karmakar, Sudipto, 2021. "A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 931, Bank of England.
    105. Thibaut Duprey, 2018. "Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-6, Bank of Canada.
    106. John H. Rogers & Jiawen Xu, 2019. "How Well Does Economic Uncertainty Forecast Economic Activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    107. Kremer, Manfred & Chavleishvili, Sulkhan, 2021. "Measuring Systemic Financial Stress and its Impact on the Macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    108. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    109. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    110. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    111. Gu, Xin & Cheng, Xiang & Zhu, Zixiang & Deng, Xiang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and China’s growth-at-risk," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 452-467.
    112. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    113. Stefan Griller & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2022. "Measuring Shocks to Central Bank Independence using Legal Rulings," Papers 2202.12695, arXiv.org.
    114. Millard, Stephen & Rubio, Margarita & Varadi, Alexandra, 2021. "The macroprudential toolkit: effectiveness and interactions," Bank of England working papers 902, Bank of England.
    115. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Andrea Deghi & Mitsuru Katagiri & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Nico Valckx, 2020. "Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2020/011, International Monetary Fund.
    116. International Monetary Fund, 2018. "Singapore: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore," IMF Staff Country Reports 2018/245, International Monetary Fund.
    117. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    118. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    119. Daniel Gros, 2021. "High Public Debt in an Uncertain World: Post-Covid-19 Dangers for Public Finance," EconPol Policy Brief 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    120. Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko & Damjanović, Milan, 2020. "ECB-BASIR: a primer on the macroeconomic implications of the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2431, European Central Bank.
    121. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2021. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2021/275, International Monetary Fund.
    122. Suah, Jing Lian, 2020. "Uncertainty and Exchange Rates: Global Dynamics (Well, I Don't Quite Know Anymore)," MPRA Paper 109087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    123. David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2020. "Horseshoe Prior Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2006.07655, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    124. N. V. Suvorov & S. V. Treshchina & Yu. V. Beletskii, 2020. "Design of Methods for Long-Term Forecasting of Development Trends in the Russian Economy (Methodology and Model Toolkit)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 636-646, November.
    125. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2018. "Can an Energy Futures Index Predict US Stock Market Index Movements?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 230-240.
    126. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Predictability of Tail Risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The Role of Spillovers and Oil Tail Risks," Working Papers 202127, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    127. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Tosapol Apaitan & Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul & Nuwat Nookhwun, 2021. "Revisiting Thailand's Monetary Policy Model for an Integrated Policy Analysis," PIER Discussion Papers 164, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    128. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    129. Giancarlo Corsetti & Anna Lipínska & Giovanni Lombardo, 2021. "Sharing asymmetric tail risk smoothing, asset pricing and terms of trade," BIS Working Papers 958, Bank for International Settlements.
    130. Juan M. Londono & Nancy R. Xu, 2021. "The Global Determinants of International Equity Risk Premiums," International Finance Discussion Papers 1318, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    131. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.
    132. Matei Demetrescu & Robinson Kruse-Becher, 2021. "Is U.S. real output growth really non-normal? Testing distributional assumptions in time-varying location-scale models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    133. Timo Dimitriadis & Tobias Fissler & Johanna Ziegel, 2020. "The Efficiency Gap," Papers 2010.14146, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    134. Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Christian Pierdzioch & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Disaggregated Oil Shocks and Stock-Market Tail Risks: Evidence from a Panel of 48 Countries," Working Papers 202106, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    135. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    136. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Manganelli, Simone, 2019. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Working Paper Series 2330, European Central Bank.
    137. Pontines, Victor & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Atarbaatar, Enkhjin & Munkhtsetseg, Ulziikhutag, 2021. "The effectiveness of currency intervention: Evidence from Mongolia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  17. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Antonello D’Agostino & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Papers 7, European Stability Mechanism.
    3. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    7. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2022. "One Scheme Fits All: A Central Fiscal Capacity for the EMU Targeting Eurozone, National and Regional Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano & Simonsen, Lasse P., 2019. "Time-varying Price Flexibility and Inflation Dynamics," EMF Research Papers 28, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    9. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: The New Forecast Standard of the ifo Institute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
    11. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    12. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    13. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    14. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

  18. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1413, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    4. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
    5. Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann, 2023. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," ifo Working Paper Series 400, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Christoph E. Boehm & Niklas Kroner, 2023. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 1371, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Rasmus Fatum & Naoko Hara & Yohei Yamamoto, 2019. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields," Globalization Institute Working Papers 354, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    9. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    13. André Marine Charlotte & Dai Meixing, 2020. "The limits to robust monetary policy in a small open economy with learning agents," Working Papers 2020-12, Banco de México.
    14. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    15. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Pradhan, H.K. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2021. "Hunting the quicksilver: Using textual news and causality analysis to predict market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP-2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Sreejata Banerjee & Divya Sinha, 2015. "Effect of Macroeconomic News Releases on Bond Yields in India China and Japan," Working Papers 2015-125, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    19. Filippo Ferroni, 2018. "Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro-area," 2018 Meeting Papers 60, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    21. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Ingomar Krohn, 2022. "Real Exchange Rate Decompositions," Discussion Papers 2022-6, Bank of Canada.
    25. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    26. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2016. "Unsurprising shocks: information, premia, and the monetary transmission," Bank of England working papers 626, Bank of England.
    27. Bruno Feunou & Rodrigo Sekkel & Morvan Nongni Donfack, 2018. "Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-38, Bank of Canada.
    28. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & McLaren, Nick, 2015. "How much do UK market interest rates respond to macroeconomic data news?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(3), pages 259-272.
    29. Goodell, John W. & Alon, Ilan & Chiaramonte, Laura & Dreassi, Alberto & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Risk substitution in cryptocurrencies: Evidence from BRICS announcements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    30. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    31. Ingomar Krohn & Vladyslav Sushko & Witit Synsatayakul, 2023. "Foreign investor feedback trading in an emerging financial market," BIS Working Papers 1154, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Julio E. Sandubete & León Beleña & Juan Carlos García-Villalobos, 2023. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Model-Data Paradox of Chaos on Top Currencies from the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    33. Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Urga, Giovanni, 2016. "Jumps and Information Asymmetry in the US Treasury Market," EconStor Preprints 130148, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    34. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2023. "Long-run and short-run impact of the U.S. economy on stock, bond and housing markets: An evaluation of U.S. and six major economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 211-232.
    35. Schlepper, Kathi, 2016. "High-frequency trading in the Bund futures market," Discussion Papers 15/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  19. Giannone, Domenico & Monti , Francesca & Reichlin , Lucrezia, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Bank of England working papers 509, Bank of England.

    Cited by:

    1. Bent Jesper Christensen & Olaf Posch & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models Using Mixed Frequency Macro and Financial Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5030, CESifo.
    2. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 175, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    5. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    6. Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency," Working Papers No 09/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
    9. Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Alejandra Ramírez-Ramírez, 2018. "Metodologías semi-estructurales para estimar la Inflación básica mensual en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1040, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    11. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2020. "Assessing nowcast accuracy of US GDP growth in real time: the role of booms and busts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 7-27, January.
    12. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.

  20. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Staff Reports 847, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
    3. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    4. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    5. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    6. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    8. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    9. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    10. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    11. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    12. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. Máximo Camacho & Matías Pacce & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Papers 2034, Banco de España.
    14. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    15. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
    17. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    18. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Kenichiro McAlinn & Knut Are Aastveit & Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2020. "Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1092-1110, July.
    20. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    21. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of infla," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
    23. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    24. Simone Emiliozzi & Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto, 2018. "Forecasting house prices in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 463, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Byoung Hark Yoo, 2023. "Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08," Working Papers 59629, Congressional Budget Office.
    26. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    27. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    30. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    31. Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    32. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    33. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    34. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    35. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    36. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    37. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    38. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    39. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
    40. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    41. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    42. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    43. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    44. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    45. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
    46. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    47. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    48. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Ángel Estrada & Luis Guirola & Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2020. "The use of BVARs in the analysis of emerging economies," Occasional Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    50. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    51. Guy P. Nason & James L. Wei, 2022. "Quantifying the economic response to COVID‐19 mitigations and death rates via forecasting purchasing managers' indices using generalised network autoregressive models with exogenous variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1778-1792, October.
    52. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    53. Klaus-Heiner Röhl & Joachim Ragnitz & Ulrich Walwei & Timo Wollmershäuser & Justus Haucap & Jarko Fidrmuc & Florian Horky & Philipp Reichle & Fabian Reck & Birgit Felden, 2021. "The Post-Covid-19 Economy: What Unexpected Traces Does the Crisis Leave Behind in Industries, Regions, and Structures?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(03), pages 03-25, March.
    54. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    56. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    58. João Barata R.B. Barroso & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 55-65, Bank for International Settlements.
    59. Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    60. Barroso, João Barata R.B. & da Silva, Luiz A. Pereira & Sales, Adriana Soares, 2016. "Quantitative easing and related capital flows into Brazil: Measuring its effects and transmission channels through a rigorous counterfactual evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-122.
    61. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    62. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    63. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    64. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    65. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    66. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    67. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    68. Rodríguez, Aldo, 2020. "Estimación Bayesiana de un Modelo de Economía Abierta con Sector Bancario," Dynare Working Papers 52, CEPREMAP.
    69. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    70. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    71. Hajer Ben Romdhane & Nahed Ben Tanfous, 2017. "Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 15-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    72. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    73. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    74. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    75. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    76. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.
    77. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    78. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 100705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    79. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," Working Paper Series 2754, European Central Bank.
    80. Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Д," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
    81. Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015. "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: pro," MPRA Paper 63517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    82. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    83. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    84. Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.

  21. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Altavilla, Carlo, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of OMT Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 10025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 489, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & María Dolores Gadea & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2017. ""Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Working Papers REM 2017/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Irma Alonso & Pedro Serrano & Antoni Vaello-Sebastià, 2021. "The impact of heterogeneous unconventional monetary policies on the expectations of market crashes," Working Papers 2127, Banco de España.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rieth, Malte, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 745-775.
    8. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers hal-04221606, HAL.
    9. Goczek, Łukasz & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2023. "Spillover effects of the unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 82-104.
    10. Beaupain, Renaud & Girard, Alexandre, 2020. "The value of understanding central bank communication," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 154-165.
    11. Fabrizio Balassone & Sara Cecchetti & Martina Cecioni & Marika Cioffi & Wanda Cornacchia & Flavia Corneli & Gabriele Semeraro, 2016. "Risk Reduction and Risk Sharing in the Governance of the Euro Area," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 463-488.
    12. Fabrizio Balassone & Sara Cecchetti & Martina Cecioni & Marika Cioffi & Wanda Cornacchia & Flavia Corneli & Gabriele Semeraro, 2016. "Economic governance in the euro area: balancing risk reduction and risk sharing," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 344, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Working Papers hal-03403256, HAL.
    14. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2016-8, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    15. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    16. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    17. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    18. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The role of ECB monetary policy and financial stress on Eurozone sovereign yields," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1189-1211, September.
    19. Frederik Neugebauer, 2020. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 20-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    20. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16 [Focus on Future Viability. Annual Report 2015/16]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    21. Markmann, Holger & Zietz, Joachim, 2017. "Determining the effectiveness of the Eurosystem’s Covered Bond Purchase Programs on secondary markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-327.
    22. Moessner, Richhild & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Effects of monetary policy announcements on term premia in the euro area during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    23. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    24. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4qb2og10r48, Sciences Po.
    25. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    26. Abeer Reza & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Quantitative Easing as a Policy Tool Under the Effective Lower Bound," Discussion Papers 15-14, Bank of Canada.
    27. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    28. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459898, HAL.
    29. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2019. "Effects of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real and Financial Wealth," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp286, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    30. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Viennot, 2015. "The effect of ECB monetary policies on interest rates and volumes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    31. Darracq-Pariès, Matthieu & Kühl, Michael, 2017. "The optimal conduct of central bank asset purchases," Discussion Papers 22/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    33. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Soudant, Joey, 2022. "Monetary policy and portfolio rebalancing: Evidence from European equity mutual funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    34. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Eurozone bond market dynamics, ECB monetary policy and financial stress," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458554, HAL.
    35. Gabe de Bondt, 2017. "Confidence and monetary policy transmission," EcoMod2017 10197, EcoMod.
    36. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    37. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    38. Michael Stiefel & Rémi Vivès, 2022. "‘Whatever it takes’ to change belief: evidence from Twitter," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 715-747, August.
    39. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    40. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2021. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-050, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    41. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9a, Sciences Po.
    42. Neugebauer, Frederik, 2019. "ECB Announcements and Stock Market Volatility," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203554, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    43. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 8178, CESifo.
    44. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1596, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    46. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
    47. Ioannou Demosthenes & Pagliari Maria Sole & Stracca Livio, 2020. "The international dimension of a fragile EMU," Working papers 795, Banque de France.
    48. Ugo Albertazzi & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2016. "The bank lending channel of conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1094, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    49. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy, And The Zero Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 774-806, June.
    50. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    51. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    52. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    53. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Fabien Labondance & Vincent Touze & Paul Hubert, 2014. "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7986np0ssj9, Sciences Po.
    54. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    55. Lo Duca, Marco & Koban, Anne & Basten, Marisa & Bengtsson, Elias & Klaus, Benjamin & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lang, Jan Hannes & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "A new database for financial crises in European countries," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 13, European Systemic Risk Board.
    56. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    57. Atanas Pekanov, 2020. "Die Europäische Währungsunion im Wandel," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 165-175, March.
    58. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    59. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03554141, HAL.
    60. Mr. Richard Varghese & Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2018. "A New Wave of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policies: Domestic Impact and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2018/011, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Mojon & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2020. "Does the liquidity trap exist?," BIS Working Papers 855, Bank for International Settlements.
    62. Albertazzi, Ugo & Becker, Bo & Boucinha, Miguel, 2021. "Portfolio rebalancing and the transmission of large-scale asset purchase programs: Evidence from the Euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    63. Acharya, Viral & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian & Hirsch, Christian, 2017. "Whatever it takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    64. George N. Apostolakis & Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2023. "Macro‐financial effects of monetary policy easing," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 715-738, April.
    65. Ferrando, Annalisa & Ganoulis, Ioannis & Preuss, Carsten, 2019. "Firms’ expectations on the availability of credit since the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2341, European Central Bank.
    66. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    67. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    68. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2023. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," Trinity Economics Papers TEP1023, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    69. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    70. Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2018. "Central Bank Policies and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7400, CESifo.
    71. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2015. "Euro Area Government Bonds—Integration and Fragmentation During the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Staff Working Papers 15-13, Bank of Canada.
    72. Horvath, Roman & Kotlebova, Jana & Siranova, Maria, 2018. "Interest rate pass-through in the euro area: Financial fragmentation, balance sheet policies and negative rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 12-21.
    73. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw, 2014. "Exceptional policies for exceptional times: The ECB's response to the rolling crises of the Euro Area, and how it has brought u," CEPR Discussion Papers 10193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    74. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena & Saka, Orkun, 2014. "ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right?," CEPS Papers 9414, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    75. Zaghini, Andrea, 2019. "The CSPP at work: Yield heterogeneity and the portfolio rebalancing channel," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 282-297.
    76. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2019. "Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of Portugal," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 42(120), pages 219-236, Diciembre.
    77. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    78. Arghyrou, Michael G & Gadea, Mar a Dolores, 2019. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2019/6, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    79. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael M. & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E., 2019. "European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 3-21.
    80. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
    81. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    82. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2017. "Euro area government bonds – Fragmentation and contagion during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-44.
    83. Pietrovito, Filomena & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2022. "Did small banks trade-off lending with government bond purchases during the Sovereign debt crisis?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22083, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    84. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2015. "Sovereign stress, unconventional monetary policy, and SME access to finance," Working Paper Series 1820, European Central Bank.
    85. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Eurozone Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy Interventions and Other Covariates," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-19, January.
    86. Martien Lamers & Frederik Mergaerts & Elien Meuleman & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2016. "The trade-off between monetary policy and bank stability," Working Paper Research 308, National Bank of Belgium.
    87. Beck, Roland & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2015. "The geography of the great rebalancing in euro area bond markets during the sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1839, European Central Bank.
    88. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    89. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    90. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Grab, 2015. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's extended asset purchase programme," Globalization Institute Working Papers 232, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    91. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
    92. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions," Working Paper Series 2598, European Central Bank.
    93. Elien Meuleman & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2022. "Macroprudential Policy, Monetary Policy, and Euro Zone Bank Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    94. Ehrmann, Michael & Holton, Sarah & Kedan, Danielle & Phelan, Gillian, 2021. "Monetary policy communication: perspectives from former policy makers at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2627, European Central Bank.
    95. Corvino, Raffaele & Ruggiero, Francesco, 2021. "The relative pricing of sovereign credit risk after the Eurozone crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    96. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    97. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2015. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113035, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    98. Junttila, Juha & Nguyen, Vo Cao Sang, 2022. "Impacts of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability: Evidence from euro area," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    99. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    100. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2015. "Has the Eurozone Become Less Fragile? Some Empirical Tests," CESifo Working Paper Series 5163, CESifo.
    101. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    102. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Tavlas, George S., 2022. "An investigation into feedback and spatial relationships between banks’ share prices and sovereign bond spreads during the euro crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    103. Stann, Carsten M. & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2019. "Monetary policy transmission to Russia & Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers 2019/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    104. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    105. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    106. Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Niki Papadopoulou, 2020. "Balance Sheet Policies in a Large Currency Union: A Primer on ECB Non-Standard Measures since 2014," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 171-230.
    107. Gibran Watfe, 2015. "The Impact of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    108. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    109. Mengus, Eric, 2017. "Asset Purchase Bailouts and Endogenous Implicit Guarantees," HEC Research Papers Series 1248, HEC Paris, revised 22 Jan 2018.
    110. Florentina Melnic, 2017. "The Financial Crisis Response. Comparative Analysis Between European Union And Usa," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 19, pages 129-155, June.
    111. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    112. José Alves & Tomás Silva, 2020. "An Empirical Assessment of Monetary Policy Channels on Income and Wealth Disparities," Working Papers REM 2020/0144, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    113. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2020. "Estimating the effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme at the country level," Discussion Papers 29/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    114. Chiara Perillo & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Financialization and unconventional monetary policy: a financial-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1385-1428, November.
    115. Ralf Fendel & Frederik Neugebauer, 2018. "Country-Specific Euro Area Government Bond Yield Reactions to ECB’s Non-Standard Monetary Policy Announcements," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 18-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    116. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2016. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's asset purchase programme," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 257-265.
    117. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    118. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Jacquinot, Pascal & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2016. "Parsing financial fragmentation in the euro area: a multi-country DSGE perspective," Working Paper Series 1891, European Central Bank.
    119. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2021. "Extraordinary Actions Of The Ecb In Response To The Coronavirus Pandemic," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23.
    120. Sergio de Ferra, 2017. "External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Crises," 2017 Meeting Papers 726, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    121. Alessandro Dovis & Luigi Bocola, 2015. "Indeterminacy in Sovereign Debt Markets: An Empirical Investigation," 2015 Meeting Papers 694, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    122. Kirsten Schmidt & Felix Noth & Lena Tonzer, 2022. "A Note of Caution on Quantifying Banks' Recapitalization Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 1123-1133, June.
    123. Ryuzo Miyao & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2020. "Regime shifts in the effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(6), pages 749-772, December.
    124. Cristiana Fiorelli & Alfredo Cartone & Matteo Foglia, 2021. "Shadow rates and spillovers across the Eurozone: a spatial dynamic panel model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 223-245, February.
    125. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    126. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.
    127. Frederic Opitz, 2020. "Why narrative information matters: Evidence from the asset purchase program of the ECB," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/994, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    128. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    129. Diessner, Sebastian & Lisi, Giulio, 2019. "Masters of the ‘masters of the universe’? Monetary, fiscal and financial dominance in the Eurozone," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100754, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    130. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    131. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2015. "Market sentiments and the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone," FinMaP-Working Papers 28, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    132. Carsten M. Stann & Theocharis N. Grigoriadis, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission to Russia and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 303-353, June.
    133. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    134. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2017. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-43.
    135. David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2022. "The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under," Staff Reports 1013, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    136. António Afonso, & Manish K. Singh, 2016. "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/11, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    137. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Reforming the European Central Bank," Post-Print hal-03471743, HAL.
    138. Gergely Hudecz & Elisabetta Vangelista & Robert Blotevogel, 2022. "Asset purchases and sovereign risk premia in the euro area during the pandemic," Working Papers 55, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Sep 2022.
    139. Ad Van Riet, 2017. "A New Era For Monetary Policy: Challenges For The European Central Bank," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 57-86, March.
    140. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2019. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 2259, European Central Bank.
    141. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    142. İshak Demi̇r & Burak A. Eroğlu & Seçi̇l Yildirim‐Karaman, 2022. "Heterogeneous Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Bond Yields across the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1425-1457, August.
    143. Occhino, Filippo, 2017. "The 2012 eurozone crisis and the ECB’s OMT program: A debt-overhang banking and sovereign crisis interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 337-363.
    144. Luca Fanelli & Antonio Marsi, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: A Tale of Three Shocks," Working Papers wp1164, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    145. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Parsing Financial Frictions Underlying Bank Lending Fragmentation during the Euro Area Crisis," Working Papers 2016-7, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    146. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2016. "Soft budget constraints, European Central Banking and the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 2016/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    147. Gifuni, Luigi, 2017. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of SMP, LTRO and OMT Announcements," MPRA Paper 90166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    148. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2017. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," CFS Working Paper Series 567, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    149. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    150. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    151. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    152. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Holton, Sarah & Ongena, Steven, 2018. "Credit supply and demand in unconventional times," Working Paper Series 2202, European Central Bank.
    153. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    154. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional Path of Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    155. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why Did Bank Lending Rates Diverge from Policy Rates After the Financial Crisis?," Discussion Papers 2015/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    156. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    157. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    158. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    159. Dana Kiseľáková & Paulina Filip & Erika Onuferová & Tomáš Valentiny, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Sustainable Economic and Financial Development in the Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    160. Nikolaos Petrakis & Christos Lemonakis & Christos Floros & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "Greek Banking Sector Stock Reaction to ECB’s Monetary Policy Interventions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    161. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2020. "The international dimension of an incomplete EMU," Working Paper Series 2459, European Central Bank.
    162. Hjalte Lokdam, 2020. "‘We Serve the People of Europe’: Reimagining the ECB's Political Master in the Wake of its Emergency Politics," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 978-998, July.
    163. Guillaume Cléaud & Francisco de Castro Fernández & Jorge Durán Laguna & Lucia Granelli & Martin Hallet & Anne Jaubertie & Carlos Maravall Rodriguez & Diana Ognyanova & Balazs Palvolgyi & Tsvetan Tsali, 2019. "Cruising at Different Speeds: Similarities and Divergences between the German and the French Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 103, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    164. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    165. Lubomira Gertler, 2015. "Interactions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures with the Euro Area Yield Curve," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, March.
    166. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Domingues Semeano, João, 2020. "Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2486, European Central Bank.
    167. Marinela Adriana Finta & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani-Rad, 2019. "Time-varying contemporaneous spillovers during the European Debt Crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 423-448, August.
    168. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 638-670, June.
    169. Hülsewig, Oliver & Steinbach, Armin, 2021. "Monetary financing and fiscal discipline," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    170. Kerstin Bernoth & Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Effectiveness of the ECB Programme of Asset Purchases: Where Do We Stand? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 113, number pbk113, January.
    171. Martien Lamers & Thomas Present & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2023. "Does BRRD mitigate the bank-to-sovereign risk channel?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1060, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    172. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    173. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
    174. Nelimarkka, Jaakko & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2021. "The effects of the ECB's pandemic-related monetary policy measures," BoF Economics Review 4/2021, Bank of Finland.
    175. Lucas Hafemann & Peter Tillmann, 2017. "The Aggregate and Country-Specific Effectiveness of ECB Policy: Evidence from an External Instruments (VAR) Approach," European Economy - Discussion Papers 063, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    176. Lhuissier Stéphane & Nguyen Benoît, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.

  22. Giannone, Domenico & Altavilla, Carlo, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 10001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Benigno Pierpaolo & Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Messori Marcello, 2022. "The European monetary policy responses during the pandemic crisis," wp.comunite 00151, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, 2018. "The Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Europe (2007–2018)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(4), pages 531-558, December.
    5. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2018. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1078, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4qb2og10r48, Sciences Po.
    7. Thomas B. King, 2016. "Expectation and Duration at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Paper Series WP-2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459898, HAL.
    9. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Viennot, 2015. "The effect of ECB monetary policies on interest rates and volumes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2020. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," Working Papers 691, DNB.
    11. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    12. Ioannou Demosthenes & Pagliari Maria Sole & Stracca Livio, 2020. "The international dimension of a fragile EMU," Working papers 795, Banque de France.
    13. Enders, Zeno & Hünnekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from german firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 45-63.
    14. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "EU integration and its impact on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/2017, pages 1-38.
    15. Roy Havemann & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11024, South African Reserve Bank.
    16. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    18. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Unequal Unemployment Effects of COVID-19 and Monetary Policy across U.S. States," Working Papers 2102, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    19. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
    20. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "The ECB's policy measures during the COVID-19 crisis," Working Papers in Public Economics 207, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    22. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    24. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    25. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    26. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    27. Silvia T. Trifonova, 2021. "Extraordinary Actions Of The Ecb In Response To The Coronavirus Pandemic," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23.
    28. Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro & Mohammed Mohsin, 2021. "Time-Varying Dictionary and the Predictive Power of FED Minutes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 149-181, January.
    29. Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Okhunjanov, Botir B., 2021. "Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    30. Ugo Panizza & Charles Wyplosz, 2018. "The Folk Theorem of Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: What Do the Data Say?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(1), pages 71-107, March.
    31. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    32. Guido Bulligan & Davide Delle Monache, 2018. "Financial markets effects of ECB unconventional monetary policy announcements," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Arthur Korus, 2019. "Spillover Effects from the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies: The Case of Denmark, Norway and Sweden," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 5(1), pages 53-78, January.
    34. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    35. Chang, Ya-Ting & Gau, Yin-Feng & Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2017. "Liquidity Commonality in Foreign Exchange Markets During the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: Effects of Macroeconomic and Quantitative Easing Announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-192.
    36. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    37. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2020. "The international dimension of an incomplete EMU," Working Paper Series 2459, European Central Bank.
    38. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "Österreich und die europäische Integration," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 86-126.
    39. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    40. Qadan, Mahmoud & Zoua’bi, Maher, 2019. "Financial attention and the demand for information," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    41. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  23. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2013. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yields Curve," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-07, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2014. "Bond Returns and Market Expectations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 708-729.
    2. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    4. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets," Papers 1806.03647, arXiv.org.
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2015. "Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models," Working Paper Series 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    7. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    8. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2013. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," CeMMAP working papers 52/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    11. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
    12. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    13. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    15. Nikoleta Anesti & Ana Beatriz Galvão & Silvia Miranda‐Agrippino, 2022. "Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and its revisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 42-62, January.
    16. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    17. Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    18. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
    19. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    21. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Switching Nelson-Siegel Models," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19106, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    22. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2023. "Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 253-287, June.
    23. Goodarzi, Milad & Meinerding, Christoph, 2023. "Asset allocation with recursive parameter updating and macroeconomic regime identifiers," Discussion Papers 06/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2019. "Predicting interest rates in real-time," Discussion Papers 19/18, Department of Economics, University of York.
    25. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    26. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    27. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
    28. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    29. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin sola & Constantino Hevia & Fabio Spagnolo, 2012. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    30. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    31. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    32. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching Nelson–Siegel models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    33. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2018. "The Interaction between Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Factors," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    34. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
    35. Siem Jan Koopman & Julia Schaumburg & Quint Wiersma, 2021. "Joint Modelling and Estimation of Global and Local Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    36. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    37. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    38. Dorota Toczydlowska & Gareth W. Peters, 2018. "Financial Big Data Solutions for State Space Panel Regression in Interest Rate Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-45, July.
    39. Choi, Ahjin & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2023. "Modeling the time-varying dynamic term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    40. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    41. Fernandes, Marcelo & Vieira, Fausto, 2019. "A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with forward-looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    42. Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
    43. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  24. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Poutineau, Jean-Christophe & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2017. "Global banking and the conduct of macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 306-331.
    2. Joanna Stawska & Katarzyna Miszczyńska, 2017. "The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-72.
    3. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Salachas, Evangelos, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy and the credit channel in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Quint, Dominic & Tristani, Oreste, 2017. "Liquidity provision as a monetary policy tool: The ECB's non-standard measures after the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 36/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "The missing spillover of base expansion into monetary aggregates: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 64-76.
    6. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "Beyond the Interest Rate Pass-through: Monetary Policy and Banks Interest Rates during the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers hal-04221606, HAL.
    7. Fabo, Brian & Jančoková, Martina & Kempf, Elisabeth & Pástor, Ľuboš, 2021. "Fifty shades of QE: Comparing findings of central bankers and academics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    9. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience: worth a try?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4qb2og10r48, Sciences Po.
    10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "Que peut-on attendre de l'assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459898, HAL.
    11. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    12. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    13. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    14. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Avalos, Fernando & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2023. "Is bank resilience affected by unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. A. Bernales & M. di Filippo, 2016. "The Information Contained in Money Market Interactions: Unsecured vs. Collateralized Lending," Working papers 598, Banque de France.
    17. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2013. "The dynamics of bank loans short-term interest rates in the Euro area: what lessons can we draw from the current crisis?," Working papers 462, Banque de France.
    18. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2019. "The Euro at 20: a critical assessment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5vh68vsbm9a, Sciences Po.
    19. John A. Tatom, 2011. "U.S. Monetary Policy in Disarray," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-21b, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute, revised Feb 2013.
    20. Giri, Federico, 2014. "Does interbank market matter for business cycle fluctuation? An estimated DSGE model with financial frictions for the Euro area," FinMaP-Working Papers 27, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    21. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    22. Vito Polito, 2020. "Nonlinear Business Cycle and Optimal Policy: A VSTAR Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 8060, CESifo.
    23. Kurter, Zeynep O., 2022. "How macroeconomic conditions affect systemic risk in the short and long-run?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1407, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    24. Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana & Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2016. "Spillover of the ECB's monetary policy outside the euro area: How different is conventional from unconventional policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 199-225.
    25. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    26. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    27. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 14/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Kühl, Michael, 2014. "Mitigating financial stress in a bank-financed economy: Equity injections into banks or purchases of assets?," Discussion Papers 19/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    30. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Bernhard Winkler, 2012. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 765-803, WINTER.
    31. Fernando Avalos & Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2018. "Euro area unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience," BIS Working Papers 754, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Betz, Frank & De Santis, Roberto A., 2019. "ECB corporate QE and the loan supply to bank-dependent firms," Working Paper Series 2314, European Central Bank.
    33. Christophe Cahn & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs During the Great Recession," Post-Print hal-01612698, HAL.
    34. Pateiro-Rodríguez, Carlos & Freire-Seoane, María Jesús & López-Bermúdez, Beatriz & Pateiro-López, Carlos, 2020. "Análisis de la tendencia a la liquidez del agregado monetario M3 en la eurozona: 1997-2018," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 171-201, enero-mar.
    35. Matthias Neuenkirch & Matthias Nöckel, 2017. "The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Research Papers in Economics 2017-02, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    36. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    37. Nicolas Barbaroux, 2014. "The Bank of France and the Open-Market instrument: an impossible wedding?," Working Papers halshs-01069286, HAL.
    38. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw, 2014. "Exceptional policies for exceptional times: The ECB's response to the rolling crises of the Euro Area, and how it has brought u," CEPR Discussion Papers 10193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Gert Peersman, 2014. "Effectiveness and transmission of the ECB’s balance sheet policies," Working Paper Research 275, National Bank of Belgium.
    40. Bastanzad , Hossein, 2014. "A New Policy Environment to Achieve Monetary Goals," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(4), pages 73-108, July.
    41. Philipp Engler & Christoph Große Steffen, 2014. "Sovereign Risk, Interbank Freezes, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1436, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    42. Bai, Yiyi & Dang, Tri Vi & He, Qing & Lu, Liping, 2022. "Does lending relationship help or alleviate the transmission of liquidity shocks? Evidence from a liquidity crunch in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    43. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Durré, Alain & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2016. "Bank interest rate setting in the euro area during the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1965, European Central Bank.
    44. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    45. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    46. Antonio Álvarez & Alejandro Fernández & Joaquín García-Cabo & Diana Posada, 2019. "Liquidity Funding Shocks: the Role of Banks’ Funding Mix," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 167-190, June.
    47. Roberto A. De Santis & Paolo Surico, 2013. "Bank lending and monetary transmission in the euro area [Bank capital, bank lending and monetary policy in the euro area]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 423-457.
    48. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions," Working Paper Series 2598, European Central Bank.
    49. André Grjebine, 2013. "L'Eurosystème: un mécanisme de transferts en faveur des pays déficitaires ? Le débat," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01024818, HAL.
    50. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    52. Nicolas Barbaroux, 2014. "The Bank of France and the Open-Market instrument: an impossible wedding?," Working Papers 1423, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    53. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Florentina Melnic, 2017. "The Financial Crisis Response. Comparative Analysis Between European Union And Usa," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 19, pages 129-155, June.
    55. Leo de Haan & Sarah Holton & Jan Willem van den End, 2021. "The impact of central bank liquidity support on banks’ sovereign exposures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(15), pages 1788-1806, March.
    56. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    57. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2013. "Monetary policy and banks in the euro area: the tale of two crises," Special Conference Papers 26, Bank of Greece.
    58. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    59. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    60. Dubecq, S. & Monfort, A. & Renne, J-P. & Roussellet, G., 2013. "Credit and Liquidity in Interbank Rates: a Quadratic Approach," Working papers 446, Banque de France.
    61. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," AMSE Working Papers 1408, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2014.
    62. Quint, Dominic & Tristani, Oreste, 2015. "Liquidity provision to banks as a monetary policy tool: the ECB's non-standard measures in 2008-2011," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112974, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    63. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2013. "Is the EMU government bond market a playground for asymmetries?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 21-31.
    64. Ewald Nowotny, 2012. "Der Euro - Vergangenheit, Gegenwart, Zukunft," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 38(2), pages 273-284.
    65. Hlebik Sviatlana & Verga Giovanni, 2015. "The European Central Bank Quantitative Policy and Its Consistency with the Demand for Liquidity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(3), pages 425-451, November.
    66. Calluzzo, Paul & Dong, Gang Nathan, 2015. "Has the financial system become safer after the crisis? The changing nature of financial institution risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 233-248.
    67. André Grjebine, 2013. "L'Eurosystème: un mécanisme de transferts en faveur des pays déficitaires ? Le débat," Post-Print hal-01024818, HAL.
    68. Aries Haryadi & Sahabudin Sidiq, 2013. "Inter-bank call money market transaction in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 5(2), pages 92-98, April.
    69. Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn, 2012. "Euro area: Single currency - national money creation," Kiel Working Papers 1787, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    70. Ouerk, Salima & Boucher, Christophe & Lubochinsky, Catherine, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    71. Lea Steininger & Alexander A. Popov, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Local Industry Structure," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp333, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    72. Grimm, Niklas & Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and corporate innovation," Working Paper Series 2615, European Central Bank.
    73. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    74. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    75. C. Cahn & J. Matheron & J-G. Sahuc, 2014. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of LTROS," Working papers 528, Banque de France.
    76. Christian Pfister, Natacha Valla, 2018. "‘New Normal’ or ‘New Orthodoxy’? Elements of a Central Banking Framework for the After-Crisis," Working papers 680, Banque de France.
    77. Chi, Yeguang & Li, Xiaoming, 2019. "Beauties of the emperor: An investigation of a Chinese government bailout," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-70.

  25. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    3. Davor Kunovac & Borna Špalat, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP Using Available Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 39, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    4. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    6. Park, Sungjun & Kim, Jinsoo, 2018. "The effect of interest in renewable energy on US household electricity consumption: An analysis using Google Trends data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1004-1010.
    7. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.

  26. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2017. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 582, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    4. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    5. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    6. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    8. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    9. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Miroslav Klucik, 2019. "Tracking the Course of the Economy (Nowcasting of basic macroeconomic indicators of Slovakia)," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2019, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    11. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    12. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    13. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Forecasting and policy making," IMFS Working Paper Series 62, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    16. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    17. Anesti, Nikoleta & Galvão, Ana & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England, revised 31 Jan 2020.
    18. Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Gani Ramadani & Magdalena Petrovska & Vesna Bucevska, 2021. "Evaluation of mixed frequency approaches for tracking near-term economic developments in North Macedonia," Working Papers 2021-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    20. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    21. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    22. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2014. "Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth," Working Papers 1411, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    23. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    24. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "The Importance of a Time-Varying Variance and Cross-Country Interactions in Forecast Models," Discussion Papers 2014/15, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    25. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H, 2020. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Bank of England working papers 867, Bank of England.
    26. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
    27. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O’Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & Berge, Lukas von dem, 2021. "Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy," Working Paper Series 2538, European Central Bank.
    28. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    29. Antonello D’Agostino & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Papers 7, European Stability Mechanism.
    30. Scott Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime," Working Paper Series WP 2019-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    31. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 59-86, Spring.
    32. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Pradeep Mishra & Khder Alakkari & Mostafa Abotaleb & Pankaj Kumar Singh & Shilpi Singh & Monika Ray & Soumitra Sankar Das & Umme Habibah Rahman & Ali J. Othman & Nazirya Alexandrovna Ibragimova & Gulf, 2021. "Nowcasting India Economic Growth Using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) Model (Empirical Study with Economic Policy Uncertainty–Consumer Prices Index)," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
    34. Edward P. Herbst & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The Factor Structure of Disagreement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    35. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    36. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    37. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    38. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M Sologon, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution and Poverty," Papers 2009.04037, arXiv.org.
    39. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 151-178, June.
    40. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    41. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 313-345, May.
    42. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    43. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
    44. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    45. Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Philipp Wegmüller, 2018. "Ein neues Modell für die kurzfristige Prognose der Herstellung von Waren und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(9), pages 651-661, September.
    46. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    48. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 472-485, July.
    49. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    50. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    51. Lastunen, Jesse & Richiardi, Matteo, 2023. "Forecasting recovery from COVID-19 using financial data: An application to Vietnam," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    52. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2019. "Efficient matrix approach for classical inference in state space models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 22-27.
    54. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Dutra Areosa, Waldyr, 2017. "Financial Conditions Indicator for Brazil," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8488, Inter-American Development Bank.
    55. Costa, Alexandre Bonnet R. & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti G. & Gaglianone, Wagner P. & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira C. & Issler, João Victor & Lin, Yihao, 2021. "Machine learning and oil price point and density forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    56. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2022. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 333-345, April.
    57. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    58. Francesca Carta, 2020. "Timely Indicators for Inequality and Poverty Using the Italian Labour Force Survey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 41-65, May.
    59. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    60. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    61. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    62. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2020. "Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 5(3), pages 9-14, September.
    63. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    64. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    65. Eric W. K. See-To & Eric W. T. Ngai, 2018. "Customer reviews for demand distribution and sales nowcasting: a big data approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 270(1), pages 415-431, November.
    66. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    67. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    68. Jed Armstrong, 2015. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    69. G. Kenny, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 500-504, October.
    70. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    71. Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.
    72. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1296, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    73. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    74. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    75. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    76. Mihnea Constantinescu, 2023. "Sparse Warcasting," Working Papers 01/2023, National Bank of Ukraine.
    77. Zhenzhong Wang & Zhengyuan Zhu & Cindy Yu, 2020. "Variable Selection in Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors," Papers 2007.10160, arXiv.org.
    78. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    79. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    80. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2019. "Nowcasting Using Mixed Frequency Methods: An Application to the Scottish Economy," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 12-45, September.
    81. Gilbert, Thomas & Scotti, Chiara & Strasser, Georg & Vega, Clara, 2017. "Is the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic news announcement related to its asset price impact?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 78-95.
    82. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    83. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    84. Nuttanan Wichitaksorn, 2020. "Analyzing and Forecasting Thai Macroeconomic Data using Mixed-Frequency Approach," PIER Discussion Papers 146, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    85. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2020. "Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
    86. Yi-Ting Chen, 2021. "A mixed-frequency smooth measure for business conditions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1699-1724, October.
    87. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    88. Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    89. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    90. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Business Cycle Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 7468, CESifo.
    91. Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    92. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    93. Ramadani Gani & Petrovska Magdalena & Bucevska Vesna, 2021. "Evaluation of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Tracking Near-Term Economic Developments in North Macedonia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 43-52, December.
    94. Fulop, Andras & Kocsis, Zalan, 2023. "News indices on country fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    95. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan M., 2020. "The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    96. Nie,Owen, 2020. "The Information Content of Capital Controls," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9343, The World Bank.
    97. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    98. Franz Ramsauer & Aleksey Min & Michael Lingauer, 2019. "Estimation of FAVAR Models for Incomplete Data with a Kalman Filter for Factors with Observable Components," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-43, July.
    99. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    100. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    101. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    102. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    103. Kirstin Hubrich & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 506-509, October.
    104. Buonanno, Paolo & Puca, Marcello, 2021. "Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(4), pages 535-540.
    105. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    106. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
    107. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    108. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    109. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.
    110. Gustavo Silva Araujo & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2022. "Machine Learning Methods for Inflation Forecasting in Brazil: new contenders versus classical models," Working Papers Series 561, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    111. Fosten, Jack, 2019. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: A short-to-medium run perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 415-429.
    112. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    113. Keeney, Mary & Kennedy, Bernard & Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "The value of hard and soft data for short-term forecasting of GDP," Economic Letters 11/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    114. Matthew Gentzkow & Bryan T. Kelly & Matt Taddy, 2017. "Text as Data," NBER Working Papers 23276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    115. Anesti, Nikoleta & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George, 2021. "Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels," Bank of England working papers 923, Bank of England.
    116. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    117. Robert Ambrisko, 2022. "Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables Using High-Frequency Fiscal Data," Working Papers 2022/5, Czech National Bank.
    118. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, November.
    119. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    120. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    121. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
    122. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    123. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    124. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    125. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    126. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    127. Mahmut Gunay, 2018. "Nowcasting Annual Turkish GDP Growth with MIDAS," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    128. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    129. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    130. Maaß, Christina Heike, 2021. "Nowcast als Forecast: Neue Verfahren der BIP-Prognose in Echtzeit," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Neuvermessung der Datenökonomie, volume 6, pages 101-127, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    131. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    132. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    133. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Max Mallee, 2014. "Low Frequency and Weighted Likelihood Solutions for Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-105/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    134. Sergiy Nikolaychuk & Yurii Sholomytskyi, 2015. "Using Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 233, pages 54-64, September.
    135. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    136. Paul Labonne, 2020. "Capturing GDP nowcast uncertainty in real time," Papers 2012.02601, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    137. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    138. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    139. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    140. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    141. Kyosuke Chikamatsu, Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, Kazuki Otaka, 2018. "Nowcasting Japanese GDPs," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    142. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    143. Maxime Leboeuf & Louis Morel, 2014. "Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions," Discussion Papers 14-3, Bank of Canada.
    144. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    145. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    146. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    147. Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan, 2022. "Analyzing and forecasting Thai macroeconomic data using mixed-frequency approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    148. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    149. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    150. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    151. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    152. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    153. Tea Livaic & Ana Perisic, 2019. "What can Google Tell us about Bitcoin Trading Volume in Croatia? Evidence from the Online Marketplace Localbitcoins," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(4), pages 707-715.
    154. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    155. Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "Nowcasting Peruvian GDP using Leading Indicators and Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 2018-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    156. Hayashi, Fumio & Tachi, Yuta, 2021. "The nowcast revision analysis extended," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    157. Domenico Giannone, 2016. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 342-344, July.
    158. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    159. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    160. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    161. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas, 2023. "Nowcasting Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data: The Case of Lithuania," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, May.
    162. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    163. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    164. Juan Carlos Carlo Santos, 2019. "Pronósticos del PIB mediante modelos de factores dinámicos," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 30(1), pages 125-174, January -.
    165. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    166. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    167. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    168. Christian Brownlees & Vladislav Morozov, 2022. "Unit Averaging for Heterogeneous Panels," Papers 2210.14205, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    169. Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    170. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    171. Červená, Marianna & Schneider, Martin, 2014. "Short-term forecasting of GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 498-516.
    172. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.
    173. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    174. Michael Graff & Dominik Studer, 2018. "Konstruktion von Sammelindikatoren für den Konjunkturverlauf bei prekärer Datenlage am Beispiel Montenegros," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 12(3), pages 81-91, October.

  27. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Cléaud, G. & Lemoine, M. & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
    2. Mihály Hajnal & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2015. "Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/121, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Christian Hotz‐Behofsits & Florian Huber & Thomas Otto Zörner, 2018. "Predicting crypto‐currencies using sparse non‐Gaussian state space models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 627-640, September.
    4. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    5. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR using over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201589, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Miniaci Raffaele & Panteghini Paolo M. & Rivolta Giulia, 2022. "The estimation of reaction functions under tax competition," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 301-339, May.
    12. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.
    13. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    14. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    15. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Vasilios Plakandaras & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "The role of housing sentiment in forecasting U.S. home sales growth: evidence from a Bayesian compressed vector autoregressive model," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2554-2567, January.
    17. Scheufele, Rolf & Bäurle, Gregor, 2015. "Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112931, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    19. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    20. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    21. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    23. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "Government purchases reloaded: Informational insufficiency and heterogeneity in fiscal VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 13-27.
    24. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
    25. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    26. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
    27. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
    29. Saleem Bahaj, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Implications in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 1406, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    30. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    31. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    32. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    33. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    34. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    35. Joohun Han & John N. Ng’ombe, 2023. "The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    36. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    37. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    38. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    39. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    40. Luca Onorante & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window," Papers 1410.7799, arXiv.org.
    41. Koop, G & Korobilis, D, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 21329, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    42. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2021. "Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2107.07804, arXiv.org.
    43. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2613, European Central Bank.
    44. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pal Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Working Papers 2021-11, FEDEA.
    45. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    46. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    47. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    48. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    49. Bonciani, Dario & van Roye, Björn, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Working Paper Series 1825, European Central Bank.
    50. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. Sassire Napo, 2022. "Assessing public debt sustainability under COVID‐19 uncertainty: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-160, July.
    52. Mike G. Tsionas, 2016. "Alternative Bayesian compression in Vector Autoregressions and related models," Working Papers 216, Bank of Greece.
    53. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers 689, Barcelona School of Economics.
    54. Yvonne Adema & Kees Folmer & Gerrit Hugo Heuvelen & Sonny Kuijpers & Rob Luginbuhl & Bas Scheer, 2020. "Unemployment Forecasts: Room for Improvement?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 403-417, September.
    55. Huber, Florian, 2016. "Density forecasting using Bayesian global vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 818-837.
    56. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
    57. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    58. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    59. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
    60. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2017. "Granger Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 319-329, May.
    61. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    62. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    63. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    64. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2019. "Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model," CAEPR Working Papers 2019-005, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    65. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Working Papers 201849, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    66. Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017. "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
    67. Marek Jarocinski & Albert Marcet, 2013. "Priors about Observables in Vector Autoregressions," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 929.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    68. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    69. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    70. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    71. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    72. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2017. "Monetary policy and balance sheets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 169-184.
    73. Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients," Working Papers 2014_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    74. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    75. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
    76. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    77. Annika Camehl & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2023. "Time-Varying Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Papers 2311.05883, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    78. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
    79. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    80. Beckmann, J & Koop, G & Korobilis, D & Schüssler, R, 2017. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20781, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    81. Kim, Kyungmin & Lee, Joo Yong, 2017. "Estimating the effects of FX-related macroprudential policies in Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-48.
    82. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Filippo Ferroni & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 2, pages 2-12.
    83. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 22-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    84. Francesco Bianchi & Giada Bianchi & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates," NBER Working Papers 28304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    85. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    86. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014," CFS Working Paper Series 501, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    87. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    88. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    89. Minsu Chang & Xiaohong Chen & Frank Schorfheide, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2289, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    90. Michal Franta, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Czech Republic: Evidence Based on Various Identification Approaches in a VAR Framework," Working Papers 2012/13, Czech National Bank.
    91. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    92. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    93. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
    94. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    95. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    96. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    97. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    98. Mortaza OJAGHLOU & Begum KAYA SOZTANACI, 2022. "Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Turkey," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 46-54.
    99. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    100. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    101. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    103. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    104. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    105. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    106. Huber, Florian & Kastner, Gregor & Feldkircher, Martin, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? Bayesian inference in the threshold time varying parameter (TTVP) model," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 235, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    107. William Chen & Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?," Liberty Street Economics 20200918a, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    108. Lukas Boer & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," IMF Working Papers 2021/243, International Monetary Fund.
    109. Itkonen, Juha & Juvonen, Petteri, 2017. "Nowcasting the Finnish economy with a large Bayesian vector autoregressive model," BoF Economics Review 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    110. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    111. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    112. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    113. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    114. Florian Huber & Tamas Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2014. "Forecasting Global Equity Indices using Large Bayesian VARs," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp184, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    115. Faia, Ester & Karau, Soeren, 2019. "Systemic Bank Risk and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    116. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
    117. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    118. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    119. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    120. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    121. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    122. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nico Petz, 2021. "Gaussian Process Vector Autoregressions and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Papers 2112.01995, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    123. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    124. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tsvetelina Nenova & Helene Rey, 2020. "Global Footprints of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2004, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    125. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    126. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    127. Mario Giarda, 2023. "Government Purchases, the Labor Earnings Gap, andConsumption Dynamics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 972, Central Bank of Chile.
    128. Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Wieladek, Tomasz & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: The Story so far," Bank of England working papers 624, Bank of England.
    129. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo.
    130. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    131. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    132. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2018. "Bayesian Structural VAR models: a new approach for prior beliefs on impulse responses," Working Papers 878, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    133. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker & Stefan Voigt, 2023. "Integrating Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1593-1646, June.
    134. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    135. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    136. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    137. Hao, Wu & Abbas, Qaiser & Ahmad, Ishtiaq & Alharthi, Majed & Hanif, Imran & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Institutional efficiency and utility reform performance: An evidence from electricity performance in South & East Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 549-561.
    138. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.
    139. Florian Huber & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p25, European Regional Science Association.
    140. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    141. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    142. Mark Bognanni & John Zito, 2019. "Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 19-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    143. Wales, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2015. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Discussion Papers 42, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    144. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
    145. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    146. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    147. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    148. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    149. Paul Ho, 2020. "Global Robust Bayesian Analysis in Large Models," Working Paper 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    150. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    151. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    152. Ivan Aleksandrovich Kopytin & Nikolay Petrovich Pilnik & Ivan Pavlovich Stankevich, 2021. "Modelling Five Variables BVAR for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005 2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 510-518.
    153. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    154. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    155. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    156. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    157. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    158. Adam Kucera & Michal Dvorak & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2017. "Decomposition of the Czech government bond yield curve," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2016/2017, chapter 0, pages 125-134, Czech National Bank.
    159. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Ivan Petrella & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2021. "Dividend Momentum and Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    160. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    161. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    162. Agostino Consolo & Filippos Petroulakis, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Papers 295, Bank of Greece.
    163. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2016. "Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through," CEPR Discussion Papers 11584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    164. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," Bank of England working papers 657, Bank of England.
    165. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    166. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    167. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    168. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Mlikota, Marko & Schorfheide, Frank & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2022. "SVARs with occasionally-binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 477-499.
    169. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2020. "Bayesian inference for structural vector autoregressions identified by Markov-switching heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    170. Marc Giannoni & Domenico Giannone & Andrea Tambalotti & Marco Del Negro, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," 2017 Meeting Papers 803, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    171. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    172. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global Risk and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 16245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    173. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2019. "Measuring the Effects of Expectations Shocks," EMF Research Papers 31, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    174. Kenneth Beauchemin, 2013. "A 14-Variable Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Staff Report 493, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    175. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    176. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    177. Aleksandra Bezborodova & Yuri Mihalenok, 2015. "Analysis of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Republic of Belarus: Bayesian approach (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 41-61, May.
    178. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2019. "Impacts of China's crash on Asia-Pacific financial integration: Volatility interdependence, information transmission and market co-movement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-46.
    179. Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "The Role of Oil Prices in the Forecasts of South African Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-01, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    180. Bognanni, Mark & Zito, John, 2020. "Sequential Bayesian inference for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    181. Annika Schnücker, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1612, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    182. Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Fischer, Johannes J., 2021. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242445, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    183. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    184. Oussama Abi Younes & Sumru Altug, 2021. "The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, October.
    185. Nyholm, Juho & Silvo, Aino, 2022. "A model for predicting Finnish household loan stocks," BoF Economics Review 4/2022, Bank of Finland.
    186. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation and GDP," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 251, pages 14-36.
    187. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    188. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    189. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    190. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    191. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    192. Mr. Serhat Solmaz & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market," IMF Working Papers 2015/269, International Monetary Fund.
    193. Sergei Seleznev, 2019. "Truncated priors for tempered hierarchical Dirichlet process vector autoregression," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps47, Bank of Russia.
    194. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    195. Oskar Gustafsson & Mattias Villani & Pär Stockhammar, 2023. "Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters from noisy marginal likelihood estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 577-595, June.
    196. Chen, Yong & Liu, Dingming & Zhuang, Ziguan, 2023. "The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    197. Jürgen Antony & D. Broer, 2015. "Euro area financial shocks and economic activity in The Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 571-595, August.
    198. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    199. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    200. Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregessions," Working Papers 115, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    201. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    202. Beqiraj, Elton & Cao, Qingqing & Minetti, Raoul & Tarquini, Giulio, 2023. "Persistent Slumps: Innovation and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2023-3, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    203. Guy P. Nason & James L. Wei, 2022. "Quantifying the economic response to COVID‐19 mitigations and death rates via forecasting purchasing managers' indices using generalised network autoregressive models with exogenous variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1778-1792, October.
    204. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    205. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    206. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    207. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    208. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    209. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    210. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    211. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    212. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    213. Luca Benati & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2023. "Gibson s Paradox and the Natural Rate of Interest," Diskussionsschriften dp2303, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    214. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    215. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    216. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    217. Tomasz Wozniak, 2016. "Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2021, The University of Melbourne.
    218. Hajargasht, Gholamreza & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2019. "Multilateral index number systems for international price comparisons: Properties, existence and uniqueness," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 36-47.
    219. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    220. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    221. Hristov, Nikolay & Huelsewig, Oliver & Siemsen, Thomas & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Munich Reprints in Economics 78269, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    222. Antonello d’Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing," Discussion Papers 1818, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    223. Eleni Zafeiriou & Spyridon Galatsidas & Garyfallos Arabatzis & Stavros Tsiantikoudis & Athanasios Batzios, 2023. "Environmental Degradation by Energy–Economic Growth Interlinkages in EU Agriculture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, May.
    224. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    225. Büyükbaşaran, Tayyar & Karasoy-Can, Gökçe & Küçük, Hande, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of bank lending in an emerging economy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    226. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    227. Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations," Papers 2002.10274, arXiv.org.
    228. Dreger, Christian, 2023. "The impact of demand and supply shocks on inflation. Evidence for the US and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 116316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    229. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    230. David Aikman & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    231. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    232. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie, 2019. "Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44.
    233. Reuben Ellul, 2018. "Forecasting unemployment rates in Malta: A labour market flows approach," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    234. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    235. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    236. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    237. Moratis, George, 2021. "Quantifying the spillover effect in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    238. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    239. Francesco Corsello & Marianna Riggi, 2023. "Inflation is not equal for all: the heterogenous effects of energy shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1429, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    240. Antonio Pacifico, 2021. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-35, May.
    241. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, 2022. "Cross-Sectional Financial Conditions, Business Cycles and The Lending Channel," International Finance Discussion Papers 1335, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    242. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    243. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2020. "Estimating the effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme at the country level," Discussion Papers 29/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    244. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2020. "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020," NBER Working Papers 27771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    245. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Justiniano, Alejandro, 2019. "Forecasting economic activity with mixed frequency BVARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1692-1707.
    246. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
    247. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    248. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    249. Mike G. Tsionas, 2016. "Alternatives to large VAR, VARMA and multivariate stochastic volatility models," Working Papers 217, Bank of Greece.
    250. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    251. Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    252. Alfan Mansur, 2023. "Simultaneous identification of fiscal and monetary policy shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 697-728, August.
    253. Sebastian Ankargren & Måns Unosson & Yukai Yang, 2018. "A mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression with a steady-state prior," CREATES Research Papers 2018-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    254. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    255. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    256. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    257. Mauro Costantini & Ulrich Gunter & Robert M. Kunst, 2017. "Forecast Combinations in a DSGE‐VAR Lab," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 305-324, April.
    258. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers 21-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    259. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    260. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    261. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    262. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek & Cristina Fuentes Albero & Dario Caldara, 2013. "On the Identification of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    263. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    264. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    265. Prüser Jan & Hanck Christoph, 2021. "A Comparison of Approaches to Select the Informativeness of Priors in BVARs," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(4), pages 501-525, August.
    266. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
    267. Ross Doppelt & Keith O'Hara, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregressions and an Application to Identified Technology Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    268. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    269. Kociecki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions," Working Paper Series 1492, European Central Bank.
    270. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    271. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Sustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Bank of England working papers 914, Bank of England, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    272. Martin Feldkircher & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 859-893, August.
    273. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    274. Andrejs Zlobins, 2022. "Into the Universe of Unconventional Monetary Policy: State-dependence, Interaction and Complementarities," Working Papers 2022/05, Latvijas Banka.
    275. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    276. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    277. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2020. "Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 22-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    278. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    279. Wen Zhang, 2020. "Can trade openness affect the monetary transmission mechanism?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 341-364, May.
    280. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    281. Aloui, Donia & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Guesmi, Khaled & Mzoughi, Hela, 2023. "Managing natural resource prices in a geopolitical risk environment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    282. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    283. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    284. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2019. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non-financial corporations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 23/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    285. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    286. Mark Bognanni & Edward P. Herbst, 2014. "Estimating (Markov-Switching) VAR Models without Gibbs Sampling: A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 1427, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    287. Vijaykumar Dhannur & Ashwin R. John, 2021. "Foreign direct investment and export performance using the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression framework," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1679-1685, October.
    288. Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps37, Bank of Russia.
    289. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Impulse Response Analysis at the Zero Lower Bound," Diskussionsschriften dp2306, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    290. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2016. "A Bayesian Infinite Hidden Markov Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-107/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    291. Michal Andrle & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2013. "The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure," IMF Working Papers 2013/220, International Monetary Fund.
    292. Eleni Zafeiriou & Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos & Constantinos Tsanaktsidis & Stavros Garefalakis & Konstantinos Panitsidis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Garyfallos Arabatzis, 2022. "Energy and Mineral Resources Exploitation in the Delignitization Era: The Case of Greek Peripheries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    293. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    294. Lozano, Francisco-Javier, 2013. "Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la venta de viviendas [Evaluation of forecasting models for house sales]," MPRA Paper 118652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    295. Guanhao Feng & Nicholas Polson, 2020. "Regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 591-608, December.
    296. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    297. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    298. Hans Genberg & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Machine Learning and Central Banks: Ready for Prime Time?," Working Papers wp43, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    299. Anttonen, Jetro, 2018. "Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data," ETLA Working Papers 62, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    300. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    301. Kärkkäinen, Samu & Silvo, Aino, 2023. "Household debt, liquidity constraints and the interest rate elasticity of private consumption," BoF Economics Review 2/2023, Bank of Finland.
    302. Camilo Granados & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations," Borradores de Economia 1249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    303. Loria, Francesca & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2022. "Economic theories and macroeconomic reality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 105-117.
    304. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    305. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    306. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    307. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    308. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2016. "A Bayesian VAR benchmark for COMPASS," Bank of England working papers 583, Bank of England.
    309. Ankargren Sebastian & Unosson Måns & Yang Yukai, 2020. "A Flexible Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression with a Steady-State Prior," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-41, July.
    310. Nicola Viegi & Vincent Dadam, 2023. "Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa," Working Papers 11043, South African Reserve Bank.
    311. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    312. Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "Sign restrictions in high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Working Paper series 20-09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    313. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    314. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    315. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    316. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    317. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    318. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    319. Masolo, Riccardo M, 2022. "Mainly employment: survey-based news and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 958, Bank of England.
    320. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    321. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1341, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    322. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    323. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    324. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2017. "Representation, Estimation and Forecasting of the Multivariate Index-Augmented Autoregressive Model," CEIS Research Paper 397, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Jul 2018.
    325. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
    326. Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Machine Learning Macroeconometrics: A Primer," Working Paper series 18-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    327. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.
    328. Takao Asano & Xiaojing Cai & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Time-varying ambiguity shocks and business cycles," KIER Working Papers 1094, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    329. Elena Afanasyeva & Sam Jerow & Seung Jung Lee & Michele Modugno, 2020. "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    330. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    331. Thomas B Götz & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2021. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 442-461.
    332. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    333. Marcelo A. T. Aragão, 2021. "Blurred Crystal Ball: investigating the forecasting challenges after a great exogenous shock," Working Papers Series 549, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    334. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    335. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    336. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    337. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    338. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    339. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    340. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    341. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    342. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    343. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.
    344. Tomasz Woźniak, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(3), pages 365-380, September.
    345. Carriero, Andrea & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Credit Conditions and the Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," EMF Research Papers 17, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    346. Valeriu Nalban, 2015. "Do Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models improve density forecasting accuracy? The case of the Czech Republic and Romania," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 60-74, March.
    347. Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    348. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    349. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    350. Lusompa, Amaze, 2019. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," MPRA Paper 99856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2020.
    351. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2019. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 621-640, August.
    352. Consolo, Agostino & Foroni, Claudia & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2021. "A mixed frequency BVAR for the euro area labour market," Working Paper Series 2601, European Central Bank.
    353. Roth, Markus, 2020. "Partial pooling with cross-country priors: An application to house price shocks," Discussion Papers 06/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    354. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    355. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    356. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    357. Gerdesmeier Dieter & Roffia Barbara & Reimers Hans-Eggert, 2017. "Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 19-34, December.
    358. Ash, Thomas & Nikolaishvili, Giorgi & Struby, Ethan, 2023. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions: A comment on Görtz et al. (2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 51, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    359. Ilias Georgakopoulos, 2019. "Income and wealth inequality in Malta: evidence from micro data," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    360. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    361. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    362. Teresa Messner & Thomas Zörner, 2023. "Aggregate price pressures along the supply chain: a euro area perspective," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/22-Q1/, pages 21-32.
    363. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    364. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," Working Paper Series 2754, European Central Bank.
    365. Pestova, Anna (Пестова, Анна) & Mamonov, Mikhail (Мамонов, Михаил), 2016. "Estimating the Influence of Different Shocks on Macroeconomic Indicators and Developing Conditional Forecasts on the Basis of BVAR Model for the Russian Economy [Оценка Влияния Различных Шоков На Д," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 56-92, August.
    366. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.
    367. Gächter, Martin & Huber, Florian & Meier, Martin, 2022. "A shot for the US economy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    368. Luis Gruber & Gregor Kastner, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!," Papers 2206.04902, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    369. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "The Vector Error Correction Index Model: Representation, Estimation and Identification," CEIS Research Paper 556, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Apr 2023.
    370. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    371. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    372. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Berardini, Francesco & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna, 2019. "Do public wages in the euro area explain private wage developments? An empirical investigation," Working Paper Series 2231, European Central Bank.
    373. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    374. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    375. Gergely Ganics & Eva Ortega, 2019. "Banco de España macroeconomic projections: comparison with an econometric model," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    376. Conti, Antonio M. & Nobili, Andrea & Signoretti, Federico M., 2023. "Bank capital requirement shocks: A narrative perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    377. Iryna Kaminska & Haroon Mumtaz & Roman Sustek, 2020. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Discussion Papers 2024, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    378. Liao, Jun & Zong, Xianpeng & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2019. "Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation for vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 35-60.
    379. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

  28. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. G. Peersman, 2011. "Bank Lending Shocks and the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/766, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Stefan Behrendt, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on Bank Lending in the Euro Area," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    5. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    6. G. Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/875, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Stefan Behrendt, 2016. "Taking Stock - Credit Measures in Monetary Transmission," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    9. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    11. Victor Echevarria-Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1703, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    12. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, September.
    13. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.
    14. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1498, European Central Bank.
    15. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    17. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    18. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: The Portuguese Escudo, 1911–1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 719-740, October.
    19. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    21. Francesco Zanetti & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz and Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Series Working Papers 824, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Barigozzi, Matteo, 2018. "On the stability of euro area money demand and its implications for monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87283, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw, 2014. "Exceptional policies for exceptional times: The ECB's response to the rolling crises of the Euro Area, and how it has brought u," CEPR Discussion Papers 10193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Understanding global liquidity," Discussion Papers 03/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Gertrud Errit & Lenno Uusküla, 2014. "Euro area monetary policy transmission in Estonia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 55-77, December.
    26. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    27. Hristov, Nikolay & Huelsewig, Oliver & Siemsen, Thomas & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Munich Reprints in Economics 78269, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    28. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    29. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    30. Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca & Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz, 2015. "Introducing a New Early Warning System Indicator (EWSI) of banking crises," Working Papers 1502, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    31. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2013. "Monetary policy and banks in the euro area: the tale of two crises," Special Conference Papers 26, Bank of Greece.
    32. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
    33. Matteo Farn'e & Angela Montanari, 2018. "A bootstrap test to detect prominent Granger-causalities across frequencies," Papers 1803.00374, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    34. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    35. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    36. Leroy, Aurélien, 2014. "Competition and the bank lending channel in Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 296-314.
    37. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    38. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Unger, Robert, 2017. "External financing and economic activity in the euro area: Why are bank loans special?," Discussion Papers 04/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    40. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    42. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Guglielmo Forges Davanzati & Rosario Patalano & Guido Traficante, 2019. "The Italian economic stagnation in a Kaldorian theoretical perspective," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 841-861, October.
    44. Breitenlechner, Maximilian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "The Bank Lending Channel and the Market for Banks' Wholesale Funding," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145679, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  29. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    2. Martina Hengge, 2019. "Uncertainty as a Predictor of Economic Activity," IHEID Working Papers 19-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series 1540, European Central Bank.
    4. Constantin Bürgi, 2023. "How to Deal With Missing Observations in Surveys of Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 10203, CESifo.
    5. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Improving Density Forecasts and Value-at-Risk Estimates by Combining Densities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-090/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Florian Eckert & Rob J Hyndman & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2019. "Forecasting Swiss Exports Using Bayesian Forecast Reconciliation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Jiun-Hua Su, 2021. "No-Regret Forecasting with Egalitarian Committees," Papers 2109.13801, arXiv.org.
    9. Christopher McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," CAMA Working Papers 2016-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Esteban Fernández-Vázquez & Blanca Moreno, 2017. "Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 349-370, October.
    11. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ryan Thompson & Yilin Qian & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2022. "Flexible global forecast combinations," Papers 2207.07318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    13. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    14. Richard K. Crump & Miro Everaert & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Staff Reports 850, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    16. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Beating the Simple Average: Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Economic Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 20 Aug 2017.
    17. Li, Hongmin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai, 2018. "Research and application of a combined model based on variable weight for short term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 669-684.
    18. Benjamin Avanzi & Yanfeng Li & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2022. "Ensemble distributional forecasting for insurance loss reserving," Papers 2206.08541, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    19. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    21. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin & Boyuan Zhang, 2020. "On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates," Papers 2012.11649, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    22. Roccazzella, Francesco & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2020. "Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2020006, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    23. Tony Chernis, 2023. "Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis," Staff Working Papers 23-45, Bank of Canada.
    24. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Domenico Sartore, 2018. "A scoring rule for factor and autoregressive models under misspecification," Working Papers 2018:18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    25. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    26. Matsypura, Dmytro & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2018. "Optimal selection of expert forecasts with integer programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-175.
    27. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2019. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 580-600.
    28. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    29. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average," Working Papers 2015-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    30. Espasa, Antoni & Senra, Eva, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    31. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
    32. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
    33. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.
    34. Mehmanpazir, Farhad & Khalili-Damghani, Kaveh & Hafezalkotob, Ashkan, 2022. "Dynamic strategic planning: A hybrid approach based on logarithmic regression, system dynamics, Game Theory and Fuzzy Inference System (Case study Steel Industry)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    35. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2014. "Selecting and combining experts from survey forecasts," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws140905, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    36. Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 24967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    38. Qian, Yilin & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L, 2022. "Global combinations of expert forecasts," Working Papers BAWP-2022-02, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    39. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    41. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
    42. Petropoulos, Fotios & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2023. "Model combinations through revised base rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1477-1492.
    43. Zhentao Shi & Liangjun Su & Tian Xie, 2020. "L2-Relaxation: With Applications to Forecast Combination and Portfolio Analysis," Papers 2010.09477, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    44. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    45. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.

  30. Henry, Jerome & Giannone, Domenico & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    3. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    4. Naoko Hara & Hibiki Ichiue, 2010. "Real-time Analysis on Japan's Labor Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 10-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    6. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    8. Matteo Farnè & Angela Montanari, 2022. "A Bootstrap Method to Test Granger-Causality in the Frequency Domain," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 935-966, March.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    10. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Katharina Glass, 2018. "Predictability of Euro Area Revisions," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    13. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    14. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
    15. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Recent monetary policy effects on Japanese macroeconomy," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 12-17, October.
    16. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    17. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    18. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    19. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    20. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Lalik, Magdalena & Paredes, Joan & Salvado García, José, 2023. "GDP revisions are not cool: the impact of statistical agencies’ trade-off," Working Paper Series 2857, European Central Bank.
    21. Jung, Alexander, 2017. "Forecasting broad money velocity," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-432.
    22. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Raf, 2013. "Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1571, European Central Bank.
    23. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2019. "The international effects of central bank information shocks," Papers 1912.03158, arXiv.org.
    24. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    25. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of large-scale asset purchase programs," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 12-15.
    26. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni, 2013. "Heterogeneous transmission mechanism and the credit channel in the euro area," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 2-8.
    27. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    29. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
    30. Nektarios A. Michail & George Thucydides, 2018. "Does Housing Wealth Affect Consumption? The Case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 67-86, December.
    31. Dmitry Gornostaev & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev & Alexandra Sterkhova, 2022. "A Real-Time Historical Database of Macroeconomic Indicators for Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 88-103, March.
    32. Mazzi Gian Luigi & Mitchell James & Carausu Florabela, 2021. "Measuring and Communicating the Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 289-316, June.
    33. Olivier BIAU & Angela D´ELIA, 2010. "A Non-Balanced Survey-Based Indicator to Track Industrial Production," EcoMod2010 259600028, EcoMod.
    34. Marios Polemidiotis & Maria C. Papageorghiou & Maria G. Mithillou, 2018. "Measuring the Competitiveness of the Cyprus Economy: the Case of Unit Labour Costs," Working Papers 2018-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    35. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2011. "Imperfect information, real-time data and monetary policy in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 802, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    36. Ronald Indergand & Stefan Leist, 2014. "A Real-Time Data Set for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(IV), pages 331-352, December.
    37. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2019. "Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 580-600.
    38. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area: An empirical assessment," Kiel Working Papers 1908, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    39. D'Elia, Enrico, 2012. "A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP," MPRA Paper 40264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    41. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Faria, Thomas & Schall, Robert, 2022. "How well-behaved are revisions to quarterly fiscal data in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 2676, European Central Bank.
    42. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2011. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule During the Financial Crisis? Comparing Ex-post and Real Time Data with Real Time Forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 147-171, September.
    43. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    44. Gabe de Bondt, 2012. "Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?," EcoMod2012 3896, EcoMod.
    45. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
    46. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    47. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    48. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
    49. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org.
    50. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España.
    51. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    52. Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Zörner, Thomas O., 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-3, University of Salzburg.
    53. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    54. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2011. "Zur Stabilität von Saisonbereinigungsverfahren: Eine Echtzeitdaten-Analyse am Beispiel BV4.1 und X-12-ARIMA," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, August.
    55. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS1), pages 159-182.
    56. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
    57. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
    58. Vermeulen, Philip, 2012. "Quantifying the qualitative responses of the output purchasing managers index in the US and the Euro area," Working Paper Series 1417, European Central Bank.
    59. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.
    61. Marek RUSNAK, 2013. "Revisions to the Czech National Accounts: Properties and Predictability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(3), pages 244-261, July.
    62. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    63. Ana Lamo, 2013. "Firms’ adjustment during times of crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 18, pages 9-11.
    64. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    65. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    66. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
    67. Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Forecasting in the euro area: The role of the US long rate," Economic Letters 5/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    68. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    69. Natacha Valla & Thomas Brand & Sébastien Doisy, 2014. "A New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-04, CEPII research center.
    70. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    71. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Rafael, 2014. "Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 981-995.

  31. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Market freedom and the global recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 7884, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2012. "International Financial Integration and Crisis Intensity," Finance Working Papers 23195, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1854, European Central Bank.
    3. Thibaut Duprey, 2013. "Heterogeneous Banking Efficiency : Allocative Distortions and Lending Fluctuations," Working Papers halshs-00908941, HAL.
    4. Philip Lane, 2010. "International Differences in Fiscal Policy During the Global Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp336, IIIS.
    5. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
    6. Martina Jašová & Caterina Mendicino & Ettore Panetti & José-Luis Peydró & Dominik Supera, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registers," Working Papers 1338, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 9642637, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Altug, Sumru & Neyapti, Bilin & Emin, Mustafa, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Masciandaro, Donato & Pansini, Rosaria Vega & Quintyn, Marc, 2013. "The economic crisis: Did supervision architecture and governance matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 578-596.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Kai Truempler, 2011. "The Financial Crisis and The Geography of Wealth Transfers," NBER Working Papers 17353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Florian Pradines-Jobet, 2019. "The Cost of Banking Crises: Does the Policy Framework Matter?," Working papers 712, Banque de France.
    12. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00612515, HAL.
    13. Chinazzi, Matteo & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Reyes, Javier A. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2013. "Post-mortem examination of the international financial network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1692-1713.
    14. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Lane, Philip, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    17. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    18. Sentance, Andrew & Taylor, Mark P. & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "How the UK economy weathered the financial storm," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-123.
    19. Chen Ray-Bing & Lee Kuo-Jung & Chen Yi-Chi & Chu Chi-Hsiang, 2017. "On the determinants of the 2008 financial crisis: a Bayesian approach to the selection of groups and variables," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    21. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "The impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial shock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-44.
    22. Hallwood, Paul & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Picking the Right Budget Constraint for Scotland," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-27, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    23. Michael Koetter & Kasper Roszbach & Giancarlo Spagnolo, 2014. "Financial Stability and Central Bank Governance," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 31-68, December.
    24. Crafts, Nicholas; Fearon, Peter, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s' Great Depression," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 23, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    25. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    27. Sok-Gee Chan & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Financial market regulation, country governance, and bank efficiency: Evidence from East Asian countries," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(1), March.
    28. Bose, Udichibarna & MacDonald, Ronald & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2015. "Education and the local equity bias around the world," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-76, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    29. Yongming Shi & Khalid Ahmed & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2021. "Determinants of stock market development and price volatility in ASEAN plus three countries: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 560-572, January.
    30. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial exposure and the international transmission of financial shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-39, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & D'Apice, Vincenzo & Ferri, Giovanni & Puopolo, Giovanni Walter, 2010. "Macro Financial Determinants of the Great Financial Crisis: Implications for Financial Regulation," MPRA Paper 26088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Fabrizio Coricelli & Zorobabel Bicaba, 2015. "Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era," Working Papers halshs-01267264, HAL.
    33. Levieuge, G. & Lucotte, Y. & Pradines-Jobet, F., 2019. "Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 110-131.
    34. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2010. "The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis," IHEID Working Papers 18-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    35. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
    37. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.
    38. Angelos Kotios & George Galanos, 2012. "The International Economic Crisis and the Crisis of Economics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 869-885, July.
    39. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    40. Sreejata Banerjee and Malathi Velamuri & Malathi Velamuri & Malathi Velamuri, 2015. "The Conundrum of Profitability Versus Soundness For Banks by Ownership Type: Evidence from the Indian Banking Sector," Working Papers 2015-111, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    41. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Ocal, 2014. "Financial Integration and Growth: A Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis," ERC Working Papers 1415, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    42. Kristian Behrens & Brahim Boualam & Julien Martin, 2016. "The resilience of the Canadian textile industries and clusters to shocks, 2001-2013," CIRANO Project Reports 2016rp-05, CIRANO.
    43. Al-Saffar, Yaser & Ridinger, Wolfgang & Whitaker, Simon, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper No 24: The role of external balance sheets in the financial crisis," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 24, Bank of England.
    44. Udichibarna Bose & Ronald MacDonald & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2014. "The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis," Working Papers 2014_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    45. Trefalt, Špela & Drnovšek, Mateja & Svetina-Nabergoj, Anja & Adlešič, Renata Valentina, 2013. "Work-life experiences in rapidly changing national contexts: Structural misalignment, comparisons and choice overload as explanatory mechanisms," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 448-463.
    46. Obstfeld, Maurice & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2011. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," CEPR Discussion Papers 8518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Natalya Martynova & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Mr. Razvan Vlahu, 2015. "Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking," IMF Working Papers 2015/249, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2014. "Capital Flows and Financial Intermediation: is EMU different?," Research Report 14021-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    49. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    50. Ali Mirzaei & Ali M Kutan, 2016. "Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 467-481, September.
    51. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Mirzaei, Ali & Grosse, Robert, 2019. "The interaction of quantity and quality of finance: Did it make industries more resilient to the recent global financial crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 493-512.
    53. ATI Abdessatar & BEN JAZIA Rachida, 2013. "Institutional Quality And Financial Stress: Experience From Emerging Country," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(3), pages 5-20, December.
    54. Chowdhury, M. Ashraful Ferdous & Haque, M. Mahmudul & Alhabshi, Syed Othman & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2016. "Socioeconomic Development and Its Effect on Performance of Islamic Banks: Dynamic Panel Approaches," MPRA Paper 71888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    55. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2023. "Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(2), pages 317-337, June.
    56. Ferreira, Daniel & Kirchmaier, Tom & Metzger, Daniel, 2011. "Boards of banks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119078, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    57. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "Credit composition and the severity of post-crisis recessions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 52-66.
    58. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal, 2022. "Analysis of distinct asymmetries in financial integration‐growth nexus for industrial, emerging and developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2326-2344, April.
    59. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George & Ventouri, Alexia, 2016. "Credit market freedom and cost efficiency in US state banking," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 173-185.
    60. M. Ayhan Kose & Prakash Loungani & Marco E. Terrones, 2013. "From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 370-402, August.
    61. Katarzyna Sum, 2013. "The Impact of Banking Regulation on the Economic Performance of EU Countries in 2007-2009," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-19.
    62. Brunnermeier, Markus & De Gregorio, José & Eichengreen, Barry & El-Erian, Mohamed & Fraga, Arminio & Ito, Takatoshi & Lane, Philip R. & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram & Ramos, Ma, 2012. "Banks and cross-border capital flows: challenges and regulatory responses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102439, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    63. Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
    64. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    65. Pomfret, Richard, 2014. "European crises and the Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 71-81.
    66. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 16605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    67. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
    68. Mirzaei, Ali & Al-Khouri, Ritab Salem Farhan, 2016. "The resilience of oil-rich economies to the global financial crisis: Evidence from Kuwaiti financial and real sectors," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 93-108.
    69. Dwyer, Shane & Tan, Chih Ming, 2014. "Hits and runs: Determinants of the cross-country variation in the severity of impact from the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 69-90.
    70. Kelvin Onwuka & Anayochukwu Basil Chukwu & Tobechi Faith Agbanike, 2021. "Current account and financial reforms: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4303-4314, July.
    71. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    72. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Girardone, Claudia & Ventouri, Alexia, 2013. "Financial freedom and bank efficiency: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1223-1231.
    73. Mr. Marc G Quintyn & Ms. Rosaria Vega Pansini & Donato Masciandaro, 2011. "The Economic Crisis: Did Financial Supervision Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/261, International Monetary Fund.
    74. Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 1473, European Central Bank.
    75. Lin, Kun-Li & Doan, Anh Tuan & Doong, Shuh-Chyi, 2016. "Changes in ownership structure and bank efficiency in Asian developing countries: The role of financial freedom," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-34.
    76. Hagen, Tobias, 2013. "Impact of national financial regulation on macroeconomic and fiscal performance after the 2007 financial stock: Econometric analyses based on cross-country data," Working Paper Series 02, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
    77. Sreejata Banerjee & Malathi Velamuri, 2015. "The conundrum of profitability versus soundness for banks by ownership type: Evidence from the Indian banking sector," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 12-24, September.
    78. Stephen Cecchetti & Michael R King & James Yetman, 2011. "Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?," BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
    79. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & De Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Was the 2007 crisis really a global banking crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 113-124.
    80. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    81. Ivan Diaz-Rainey & John Ashton & Maz Yap & Murat Genc & Rosalind Whiting, 2015. "The determinants of regulatory responses to risks from financial innovation: Survey evidence from G20," Working Papers 15001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    82. Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2015. "A global house of debt effect? Mortgages and post-crisis recessions in fifty economies," Research Report 15009-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

  32. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 7883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    2. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.

  33. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010. "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Todd E. Clark & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "Food and energy price shocks: what other prices are affected?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    3. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    4. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    5. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    6. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    7. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    8. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    11. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    12. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    13. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    14. Luca Onorante & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window," Papers 1410.7799, arXiv.org.
    15. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    16. L. Vanessa Smith & Nori Tarui & Takashi Yamagata, 2020. "Global fossil fuel consumption and carbon pricing: Forecasting and counterfactual analysis under alternative GDP scenarios," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 2004, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    17. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    18. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    19. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    20. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    22. Giovanni Lombardo & Luca Dedola, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Financial Integration and the International Propagation of Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2019. "Les prévisions conditionnelles sont-elles plus précises que les prévisions inconditionnelles dans les projections de croissance et d’inflation en zone CEMAC ? [Should conditional forecasts of infla," MPRA Paper 116432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    25. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    26. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper series 18-37, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    28. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    29. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
    30. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    31. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    32. Kalin Nikolov & Alexander Popov, 2014. "The sovereign-bank nexus," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 2-4.
    33. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    35. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    37. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling Inflation After the Crisis," Working Papers 2010-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    39. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    40. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca' Zorzi, 2014. "External and macroeconomic adjustment in Spain and Germany," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 9-12.
    41. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    42. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Kapoor, Mrigankshi, 2020. "Forecasting Consumer Price Index Inflation in India: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Vs. Dynamic Factor Model Approach for Non-Stationary Time Series," Working Papers 20/323, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    43. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    44. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    45. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436, December.
    46. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    47. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    48. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    49. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    50. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    51. Giovanni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "The euro area sovereign crisis: monitoring spillovers and contagion," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 2-4.
    52. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
    53. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy, 2019. "An empirical investigation of direct and iterated multistep conditional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 181-204, March.
    54. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    55. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    56. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    57. Andras Chabin & Sébastien Lamproye & Milan Výškrabka, 2020. "Are We More Accurate? Revisiting the European Commission’s Macroeconomic Forecasts," European Economy - Discussion Papers 128, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    58. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    59. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    61. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    63. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    65. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    66. Guido Bulligan & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    67. Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Has the FED Fallen behind the Curve? Evidence from VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 164-168.
    68. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    69. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.
    70. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    71. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    72. Michele Lenza, 2011. "Revisiting the information content of core inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 14, pages 11-13.
    73. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2019. "Bank loan supply shocks and alternative financing of non-financial corporations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 23/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    74. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    75. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    76. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    77. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2014. "Choosing variables in macroeconomic modelling," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 5-8.
    78. Koop, Gary, 2014. "Forecasting with dimension switching VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 280-290.
    79. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    80. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    81. Frank Smets, 2010. "Commetary: modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 221-234.
    82. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    83. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    84. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    85. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    86. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    87. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    88. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    89. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    90. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 100705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    91. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    92. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    93. Souhaïb Chamseddine Zardi, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in a Macroeconomic Framework: An Application to Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 07-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

  34. Michele Lenza & Giorgio Primiceri & Domenico Giannone, 2010. "Prior Selection for Bayesian VARs," 2010 Meeting Papers 508, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.

  35. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Pill, Huw & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2017. "Spreading the word or reducing the term spread? Assessing spillovers from euro area monetary policy," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168111, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    3. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rieth, Malte, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 745-775.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2008. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Working Paper Series 926, European Central Bank.
    5. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Garganas, Eugenie N. & Hall, Stephen G., 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?," MPRA Paper 41819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2019. "Fiscal-financial vulnerabilities," SAFE White Paper Series 62, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Italian Economy during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 269-315, June.
    9. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 1, pages 1-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," CESifo Working Paper Series 3879, CESifo.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    13. A. Durre & F. Drudi & F.P. Mongelli, 2012. "The interplay of economic reforms and monetary policy: the case of the euro area," Post-Print hal-00787189, HAL.
    14. A Durré & H Pill, 2012. "Central Bank balance sheets as policy tools," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 193-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 88.
    16. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," Working Papers hal-04159825, HAL.
    17. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2013. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the Italian economy during the sovereign debt crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures: Principles-Conditions-Raison d’etre," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 229-250, January.
    19. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial Crisis And Quantitative Easing: Can Broad Money Tell Us Anything?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 54-76, September.
    20. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 14/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Giulia RIVOLTA, 2014. "An Event Study Analysis of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    22. Brini, Alessio & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Tantari, Daniele, 2023. "Reinforcement learning policy recommendation for interbank network stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    23. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Reserve Requirements," EcoMod2012 3850, EcoMod.
    24. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "The ECB and the banks: the tale of two crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    26. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2017. "Structural Factor Analysis of Interest Rate Pass Through In Four Large Euro Area Economies," Working Papers in Economics 17/07, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    27. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2013. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    29. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    30. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2018. "Bank stability and refinancing operations during the crisis: Which way causality?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 79-89.
    31. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2018. "Quantitative easing effects on commercial bank liability and government yields in UK: A threshold cointegration approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 353-371, April.
    33. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2016. "Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 309-329.
    34. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    35. Pablo Burriel & Alessandro Galesi, 2016. "Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of ecb unconventional monetary policies across euro area countries," Working Papers 1631, Banco de España.
    36. Milošević Andriana & Jemović Mirjana, 2017. "Non-Standard Measures of the Monetary Policy – Mechanism for Overcoming Problems in the Implementation of the Neoliberal Concept of Monetary Policy During a Financial Crisis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 55(4), pages 465-480, December.
    37. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
    38. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2013. "Monetary policy and banks in the euro area: the tale of two crises," Special Conference Papers 26, Bank of Greece.
    39. Alexandros Skouralis, 2023. "The Role of Systemic Risk Spillovers in the Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1079-1106, November.
    40. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    41. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    42. Paul Mizen, 2016. "Comments on "Financial globalisation and monetary independence"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 227-230, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    44. Hlebik Sviatlana & Verga Giovanni, 2015. "The European Central Bank Quantitative Policy and Its Consistency with the Demand for Liquidity," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(3), pages 425-451, November.
    45. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Yılmaz, Derya, 2015. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Eurozone: Considering Theoretical Backgrounds and Policy Outcomes," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(3), pages 51-68, July.
    47. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.
    48. David ARISTEI & Manuela Gallo, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis: a Multivariate Regime-Switching Approach," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 107/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    49. Kristóf Lehmann & Róbert Mátrai & György Pulai, 2013. "Measures taken by the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank during the crisis," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 98-107, October.
    50. Leila Simona TALANI, 2014. "The Political Economy of Italy in the EMU: What Went Wrong?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 133-149, December.
    51. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013. "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series 70, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    52. Lubomira Gertler, 2015. "Interactions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures with the Euro Area Yield Curve," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, March.
    53. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Is deflation trap a serious threat? Case study of FED, ECB and NBP," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14(2), pages 243-259, June.
    54. Đorđe Đukić & Mališa Đukić, 2011. "The Influence of Interbank Money Market Stress Levels on Credit Markets During the Postcrisis Period in US And Euro Area," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(189), pages 7-26, April – J.
    55. Maria Cristina Recchioni & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2016. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: The effect of negative interest rates," Working Papers 2016/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    56. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  36. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting GDP using factor model: An empirical study from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 10-26, May.
    2. D'Agostino, Antonello & Mendicino, Caterina, 2015. "Expectation-driven cycles: time-varying effects," Working Paper Series 1776, European Central Bank.
    3. D.M.Nguyen, Anh & Dai Hung, Ly, 2019. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Risk Premium," MPRA Paper 94600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    7. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
    8. Zhifang He & Fangzhao Zhou, 2018. "Time-varying and asymmetric effects of the oil-specific demand shock on investor sentiment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    10. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    11. Jan Pruser & Florian Huber, 2023. "Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions," Papers 2301.13604, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    12. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
    13. Huang, Yingying & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and green financial assets: A comparison between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Rozina Shaheen, 2019. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Labor Supply under a Time-Varying Structural VAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, June.
    16. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," BCAM Working Papers 1603, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    17. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2017. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for time-varying parameter regression models with stochastic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 10-14.
    18. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    19. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    20. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    21. Petrella, Ivan & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails," Bank of England working papers 577, Bank of England.
    22. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Ehrmann, Michael & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2013. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads: the times, they are a-changin," Working Paper Series 1520, European Central Bank.
    24. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    26. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    27. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2011. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," Working Papers 1138, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    28. Krustev, Georgi & Casalis, André, 2020. "Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: what can we learn from durable goods?," Working Paper Series 2386, European Central Bank.
    29. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2015. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    30. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    32. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    33. Baumeister, Christiane & Korobilis, Dimitris & Lee, Thomas K., 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2022. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
    35. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2021. "Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 16346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    37. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    38. Antonello D’Agostino & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Papers 7, European Stability Mechanism.
    39. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2021. "Multimodality In Macrofinancial Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 861-886, May.
    40. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    41. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    42. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    43. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    44. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    45. Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series," Working Paper series 38_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    46. Joshua C.C. Chan & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2010. "Time Varying Dimension Models," Working Paper series 44_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    47. Eric Eisenstat & Rodney Strachan, 2014. "Modelling Inflation Volatility," Working Paper series 43_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    48. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    49. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Forecast evaluation of DSGE models: Linear and nonlinear likelihood," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1099-1130, September.
    50. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    51. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    52. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    53. Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients," Working Papers 2014_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    54. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    55. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Philips Curve," Working Papers 2018:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    56. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    57. Michael H. Breitner & Christian Dunis & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Christopher Neely & Georgios Sermpinis & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoul, 2014. "Inflation and Unemployment Forecasting with Genetic Support Vector Regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 471-487, September.
    58. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2019. "Bayesian Analysis of Coefficient Instability in Dynamic Regressions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-32, June.
    59. Junli Cheng & Feng Lin, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Urban–Rural Income Inequality on Sustainable Economic Growth under Urbanization and Monetary Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, June.
    60. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    61. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    62. Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan & Li, Mengheng, 2019. "Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1735-1747.
    63. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Kirchner, Markus, 2010. "Transmission of government spending shocks in the euro area: Time variation and driving forces," Working Paper Series 1219, European Central Bank.
    64. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    65. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    66. Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alexandru Manole & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "Using the System of National Accounts in the Forecasting Activity," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 91-96, April.
    67. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    68. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    69. Kwon, Hyuck-Shin & Bang, Doo Won & Kim, Myeong Hyeon, 2017. "Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 39(3), pages 43-62.
    70. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    71. Huber, Florian & Kastner, Gregor & Feldkircher, Martin, 2016. "Should I stay or should I go? Bayesian inference in the threshold time varying parameter (TTVP) model," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 235, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    72. Wollmershäuser, Timo & Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Siemsen, Thomas, 2014. "Smells Like Fiscal Policy? Assessing the Potential Effectiveness of the ECB s OMT Program," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100280, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    73. Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.
    74. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    75. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1371-1390, June.
    76. Rick Bohte & Luca Rossini, 2019. "Comparing the Forecasting of Cryptocurrencies by Bayesian Time-Varying Volatility Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, September.
    77. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    78. Tian, Shuairu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Time-varying price shock transmission and volatility spillover in foreign exchange, bond, equity, and commodity markets: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-171.
    79. Alex Tagliabracci, 2020. "Asymmetry in the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1270, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    80. Musso, Alberto & Gambetti, Luca, 2012. "Loan supply shocks and the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1469, European Central Bank.
    81. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
    82. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    83. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    84. Doo Won Bang & HyuckShin Kwon, 2022. "Policy Impact Analysis of Housing Policies Using Housing Cycles," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    85. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    86. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & James Mitchell, 2023. "Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    87. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," CAMA Working Papers 2015-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    88. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    89. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries," Working Papers 2012/04, Czech National Bank.
    90. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    91. Neil Shephard, 2013. "Martingale unobserved component models," Economics Papers 2013-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    92. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    93. Pervin, Shahida, 2018. "Dynamics and Interactions of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Investigation in the UK Economy with Bayesian VAR," MPRA Paper 91816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    95. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    96. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Working Papers 23-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2023.
    97. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    98. Mario Forni & Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Stefano Soccorsi, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    99. Jouchi Nakajima & Munehisa Kasuya & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    100. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436, December.
    101. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.
    102. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    103. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 1307, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    104. Ikram Jebabli & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVPVAR models with stochastic volatility," Working Papers 2014-209, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    105. Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop, 2013. "Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models," Working Papers 1302, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    106. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2017. "Measurement errors and monetary policy: Then and now," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 66-78.
    107. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    108. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    109. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    110. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
    111. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    112. Andrea Stella & James H. Stock, 2012. "A state-dependent model for inflation forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 1062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    113. Kashif Yousuf & Serena Ng, 2019. "Boosting High Dimensional Predictive Regressions with Time Varying Parameters," Papers 1910.03109, arXiv.org.
    114. Reusens Peter & Croux Christophe, 2017. "Detecting time variation in the price puzzle: a less informative prior choice for time varying parameter VAR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    115. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures," Working Papers (Old Series) 1519, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    116. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    117. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    118. Guido Ascari & Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenza Rossi, 2010. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a Trend Inflation World: An Empirical Investigation," Quaderni di Dipartimento 108, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    119. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers 2013-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    120. Nicoletti, Giulio & Passaro, Raffaele, 2012. "Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics," Working Paper Series 1447, European Central Bank.
    121. Fabian Kr�ger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts," Working Papers No 8/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    122. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    123. Joshua C.C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2018. "How sensitive are VAR forecasts to prior hyperparameters? An automated sensitivity analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2018-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    124. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    125. Lorenzo Fratoni & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Sustainability and Social Adequacy of the Italian NDC Pension System under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, December.
    126. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
    127. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    128. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    129. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2021. "Tests for random coefficient variation in vector autoregressive models," Working Paper series 21-21, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    130. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    131. Joshua C. C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2018. "Bayesian model comparison for time‐varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, June.
    132. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    133. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2013. "Time-Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: a Corrigendum," Staff Reports 619, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    134. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    135. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARs: A flexible Kronecker error covariance structure," CAMA Working Papers 2015-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    136. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
    137. Hristov, Nikolay & Huelsewig, Oliver & Siemsen, Thomas & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2019. "Restoring euro area monetary transmission: Which role for government bond rates?," Munich Reprints in Economics 78269, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    138. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    139. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    140. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Estimating Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR Models," Papers 1912.02231, arXiv.org.
    141. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," Working Papers 17-15R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    142. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano, 2015. "On the conditional distribution of euro area inflation forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1027, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    143. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: The New Forecast Standard of the ifo Institute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
    144. Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
    145. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    146. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    147. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    148. Antonio Pacifico, 2021. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-35, May.
    149. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    150. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "The transmission mechanism of Malaysian monetary policy: a time-varying vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 417-444, September.
    151. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    152. He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
    153. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    154. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    155. Todd E. Clark & Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2015. "Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2015(03), pages 1-6, March.
    156. Dieppe, Alistair & Ortega, Eva & D'Agostino, Antonello & Karlsson, Tohmas & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Caivano, Michele & Hurtado, Samuel & Várnai, Tímea, 2011. "Assessing the sensitivity of inflation to economic activity," Working Paper Series 1357, European Central Bank.
    157. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    158. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    159. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    160. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers 21-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    161. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    162. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    163. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    164. Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility," Working Paper 2012/09, Norges Bank.
    165. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    166. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    167. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    168. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Forecasting US GNP growth: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 541-559, August.
    169. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of cyclical fluctuations in China's energy industry on the macro economy and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1102-1112.
    170. Gianluca Cubadda & Stefano Grassi & Barbara Guardabascio, 2024. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," CEIS Research Paper 571, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 10 Jan 2024.
    171. Onour , Ibrahim A., 2021. "Modeling and assessing systematic risk in stock markets in major oil exporting countries," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 35(3), pages 18-29.
    172. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    173. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    174. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org.
    175. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting Using Mixed-Frequency VARS with Time-Varying Parameters," CESifo Working Paper Series 8054, CESifo.
    176. Marco Valerio Geraci & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2015. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying VARS," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-51, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    177. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2016. "A Bayesian Infinite Hidden Markov Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-107/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    178. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2019. "Steady‐state modeling and macroeconomic forecasting quality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 285-314, March.
    179. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    180. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
    181. Pacifico, Antonio, 2020. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-varying Volatility to jointly deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," MPRA Paper 104292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    182. Joris de Wind & Luca Gambetti, 2014. "Reduced-rank time-varying vector autoregressions," CPB Discussion Paper 270, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    183. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    184. Gara Afonso & Domenico Giannone & Gabriele La Spada & John C. Williams, 2022. "Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve," Staff Reports 1019, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    185. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    186. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    187. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    188. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    189. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    190. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2016. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural changes in steady states," Working Papers 204, Bank of Greece.
    191. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.
    192. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    193. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    194. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    195. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    196. Anna Pajor & Justyna Wróblewska, 2022. "Forecasting performance of Bayesian VEC-MSF models for financial data in the presence of long-run relationships," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 427-448, September.
    197. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2011. "Time varying VARs with inequality restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1126-1138, July.
    198. Mitchell, James & Robertson, Donald & Wright, Stephen, 2016. "What univariate models tell us about multivariate macroeconomic models," EMF Research Papers 08, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    199. Kenneth Button & Brien Benson, 2013. "Handling biases in forecasting when making transportation policy," Chapters, in: Thomas Vanoutrive & Ann Verhetsel (ed.), Smart Transport Networks, chapter 4, pages 49-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    200. Thomas B Götz & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2021. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 442-461.
    201. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    202. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    203. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    204. Legrand, Romain, 2018. "Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions: Efficient Estimation, Random Inertia and Random Mean," MPRA Paper 88925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    205. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2012. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1097-1106, November.
    206. Jansson, Walter, 2018. "Stock markets, banks and economic growth in the UK, 1850–1913," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 263-296, December.
    207. Florian Huber & Gregor Kastner & Martin Feldkircher, 2019. "Should I stay or should I go? A latent threshold approach to large‐scale mixture innovation models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 621-640, August.
    208. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "The economic drivers of volatility and uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1285, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    209. Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied, 2021. "The time-varying responses of financial intermediation and inflation to oil supply and demand shocks in the US: Evidence from Bayesian TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    210. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    211. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    212. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    213. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    214. Domenico Giannone, 2010. "Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 180-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    215. Liu, Xueyong & An, Haizhong & Li, Huajiao & Chen, Zhihua & Feng, Sida & Wen, Shaobo, 2017. "Features of spillover networks in international financial markets: Evidence from the G20 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 265-278.
    216. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    217. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    218. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    219. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
    220. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org.
    221. Denis Belomestny & Ekaterina Krymova & Andrey Polbin, 2020. "Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Papers 2008.00718, arXiv.org.
    222. Bala Dahiru Abdullahi, 2016. "Time-Varying VAR with Stochastic Volatility and Monetary Policy Dynamics in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2237-2249.
    223. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.

  37. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2018. "Behavioural economics is useful also in macroeconomics : the role of animal spirits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87286, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2022. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 217-241, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Ángel Estrada & Jordi Galí & David López-Salido, 2013. "Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 19561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    5. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    8. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    9. G. Peersman, 2011. "Bank Lending Shocks and the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/766, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    12. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    13. Jaromír Hurník & Zdenìk Tùma & David Vávra, 2010. "The Euro Adoption Debate Revisited: The Czech Case," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(3), pages 194-212, August.
    14. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    15. Martina Cecioni & Stefano Neri, 2011. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: has it changed and why?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 808, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    17. Paolo Guarda & Philippe Jeanfils, 2012. "Macro-financial linkages: Evidence from country-specific VARs," BCL working papers 71, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    18. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Lacking "Europeanisation" of National Business Cycles as a Risk for the Euro Area," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(2), pages 91-104, June.
    19. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    21. Bonci, Riccardo, 2011. "Monetary policy and the flow of funds in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1402, European Central Bank.
    22. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    23. Gert Peersman, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3589, CESifo.
    24. Luis J. Álvarez & M.ª Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "La evolución cíclica de la economía española en el contexto europeo," Occasional Papers 2103, Banco de España.
    25. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava, January.
    26. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    27. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics," Working Papers hal-03469938, HAL.
    28. G. Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/875, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    29. Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2015. "Spillovers to Emerging Markets during Global Financial Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 9, pages 281-314, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Alejandro Jara & Néstor Romero, 2016. "Sincronía internacional de los precios de la vivienda," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 76-91, April.
    31. Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," Trinity Economics Papers tep0615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    32. Uctum Merih & Uctum Remzi & Vijverberg Chu-Ping C., 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, February.
    33. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Discussion Paper 2017-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    34. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2020. "High Order Openness," CEPR Discussion Papers 14653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Criste, Adina, 2011. "Relevance Of The Optimum Currency Areas Model For The Process Of European Monetary Integration Within The New Context Of Crisis," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 15(4), pages 94-107.
    36. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 95275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Mathias Dolls, 2019. "An Unemployment Re-Insurance Scheme for the Eurozone? Stabilizing and Redistributive Effects," EconPol Policy Reports 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    38. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    39. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
    40. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    41. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Mangelnde "Europäisierung" der nationalen Konjunkturzyklen als Risiko für den Euro-Raum," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(2), pages 125-138, February.
    42. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Melisso Boschi & Massimiliano Marzo & Simone Salotti, 2015. "Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 403-421, September.
    44. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jackson, Timothy & Jia, Pengfei, 2021. "Macroprudential policy coordination in a currency union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    45. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2019. "GDP Synchronicity and Risk Sharing Channels in a Monetary Union: Blue State and Red States," MPRA Paper 98981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    47. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2014. "Hazardous times for monetary policy: what do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505.
    48. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    49. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2009. "What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?," Working Paper Series 996, European Central Bank.
    50. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    51. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "The Effects of the US Economic and Financial Crises on Euro Area Convergence," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    52. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    53. Repullo, Rafael & Saurina, Jesús, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2010. "Credit supply: identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Papers 1030, Banco de España.
    55. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "The international synchronisation of business cycles: the role of animal spirits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68898, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    56. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    57. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    58. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roberta De Santis & Alessandro Girardi, 2013. "Trade Intensity And Output Synchronisation: On The Endogeneity Properties Of Emu," Working Papers LuissLab 13105, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    59. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    60. Khalid Rashid, Alkhater & Syed Abul, Basher, 2015. "The oil cycle, the Federal Reserve, and the monetary and exchange rate policies of Qatar," MPRA Paper 65900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    62. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
    63. Campos, Nauro F. & Jarko, Fidrmuc & Iikka, Korhonen, 2017. "Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union: Taking stock of the evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2017, Bank of Finland.
    64. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    65. Ramon Marimon, 2017. "On the Design of a European Unemployment Insurance Mechanism," 2017 Meeting Papers 1042, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    66. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non standard Monetary Policy measures and monetary developments," Working Papers ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    67. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
    68. Anna Iara, 2015. "Revenue for EMU: A contribution to the debate on Fiscal Union," Taxation Papers 54, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    69. Clancy, Daragh & Ricci, Lorenzo, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 208-229.
    70. Nikola Najman & Petr Rozmahel, 2013. "Business cycle coherence and OCA endogeneity testing during the integration period in the European Union," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 1033-1040.
    71. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    72. Cristian Stefan Ovidiu, 2011. "The Risks Of A Too Quick Euro Adoption By The Eu Member States. The Case Of Portugal," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 25-32, December.
    73. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, January.
    74. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    75. Shafik Hebous & Alfons Weichenrieder, 2016. "Toward a Mutualization of European Unemployment Insurance? On Limiting the Downsides of a Fiscal Transfer System for the Eurozone," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(2), pages 376-395.
    76. Misha van Beek, 2020. "Consistent Calibration of Economic Scenario Generators: The Case for Conditional Simulation," Papers 2004.09042, arXiv.org.
    77. Ciccarelli, Matteo & García, Juan Angel, 2015. "International spillovers in inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 1857, European Central Bank.
    78. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2011. "Synchronization of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the Euro Area: a time-frequency analysis," CEF.UP Working Papers 1105, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    79. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaires en Europe ?," Post-Print hal-00646305, HAL.
    80. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    81. Zouri, Stéphane, 2020. "Business cycles, bilateral trade and financial integration: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 25-43.
    82. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2021. "Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 649-669, September.
    83. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2021. "International output synchronization at different frequencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    84. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    85. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization? Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," ifo Working Paper Series 122, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    86. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    87. Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "From the Stability Pact to ESM - What Next?," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    88. Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2011. "World Technology Shocks and the Real Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," TSE Working Papers 11-261, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    89. Spahn, Peter, 2012. "Integration durch Währungsunion? Der Fall der Euro-Zone," FZID Discussion Papers 57-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    90. Gerhard Kempkes, 2014. "Cyclical Adjustment in Fiscal Rules: Some Evidence on Real-Time Bias for EU-15 Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(2), pages 278-315, June.
    91. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Xue, Chang & Zhou, Shaojie, 2020. "Bureaucratic integration and synchronization of regional economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    92. Iulia Siedschlag & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Regional output growth synchronisation with the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 203-221, May.
    93. Zouri, Stéphane, 2019. "Business cycles,bilateral trade and international financial intergration : Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," MPRA Paper 98748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Pyun, Ju Hyun & An, Jiyoun, 2016. "Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 172-193.
    95. Cristina Fernández & Pilar García Perea, 2015. "The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita," Working Papers 1530, Banco de España.
    96. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    97. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    98. Correia, L. & Gouveia, S., 2013. "Business cycle synchronisation at the regional level: evidence for the Portuguese regions," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 91-104.
    99. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    100. Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "The United Kingdom and the stability of the Euro area: From Maastricht to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1792-1808, July.
    101. Nauro Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "Brexit and the Euro," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 154, European Institute, LSE.
    102. Julius Agbor Agbor, 2013. "The Future of the CEMAC CFA FRANC," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17.
    103. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "10 Jahre WWU – Erfolge, Schwächen und Herausforderungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(1), pages 61-84, January.
    104. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2013. "Labour costs dynamics in the Euro area: some empirical evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 323-347, September.
    105. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju, January.
    106. Marco Lombardi & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/241, International Monetary Fund.
    107. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    108. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    109. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    110. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "What kind of region reaps the benefits of a currency union?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-582, June.
    111. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    112. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    113. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Alain N. Kabundi & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2009. "Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.
    114. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Fotios Gkatzoglou, 2022. "The Convergence Evolution in Europe from a Complex Networks Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.
    115. Ryan, Mary, 2009. "Investment in the Euro Area," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 64-80, July.
    116. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    117. Schäfer, Benjamin, 2016. "Monetary union with sticky prices and direct spillover channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 99-118.
    118. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    119. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU – Achievements, Weaknesses, Challenges," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(1), pages 49-72, April.
    120. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    121. Fendel, Ralf & Neumann, Christian, 2021. "Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    122. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Testing the dependency theory on small island economies: The case of Cyprus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-11.
    123. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 389-409.
    124. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    125. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2014. "A time series analysis of labor productivity. Italy versus the European countries and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 622-628.
    126. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.
    127. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    128. Henryk Bąk & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2017. "The symmetry of demand and supply shocks in the European Monetary Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 1-44.
    129. Gadea-Rivas, María Dolores & Gómez-Loscos, Ana & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2019. "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 222-243.
    130. Lane, Philip R., 2016. "Macro-Financial Stability Under EMU," ESRB Working Paper Series 1, European Systemic Risk Board.
    131. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Endogenous Asymmetric Shocks in the Eurozone. The Role of Animal Spirits," CEPR Discussion Papers 11887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    132. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "The evolution of regional economic interlinkages in Europe," Working Papers 1705, Banco de España.
    133. Eichler, Stefan & Hielscher, Kai, 2012. "Does the ECB act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis?: Evidence from monetary policy reaction models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-568.
    134. Maximilien Coussin & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2019. "Les cycles financiers convergent-ils en zone euro? En phase oui, en amplitude non," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 403.
    135. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Other publications TiSEM 505ae6bb-8e7a-4d71-9f44-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  38. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    2. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    3. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    4. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    5. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    7. Ali B. Barlas & Seda Guler Mert & Berk Orkun Isa & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2024. "Big data financial transactions and GDP nowcasting: The case of Turkey," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 227-248, March.
    8. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    12. Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Duca, Ioana & Friz, Roberta & Gayer, Christian & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Pavlova, Iskra, 2017. "EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 186, European Central Bank.
    13. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    14. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    15. Pablo Aguilar & Corinna Ghirelli & Matías Pacce & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times," Working Papers 2027, Banco de España.
    16. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    17. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    18. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    19. Aaron G. Grech & Reuben Ellul, 2021. "Are the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Survey Results Coincident Indicators for Maltese Economic Activity?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 91-108, April.
    20. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    23. Keeney, Mary & Kennedy, Bernard & Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "The value of hard and soft data for short-term forecasting of GDP," Economic Letters 11/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    24. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "The European Commission’s business and consumer surveys and Maltese macroeconomic trends," CBM Policy Papers PP/05/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    25. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    26. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    27. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    28. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    29. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    30. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2014. "“Out of Sync”: The Breakdown of Economic Sentiment Cycles in the EU," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 131-150, February.
    31. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    32. Stelios Bekiros & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Jose Arreola-Hernandez & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2018. "Directional predictability and time-varying spillovers between stock markets and economic cycles," Post-Print hal-01996787, HAL.
    33. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022. "News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 63-81, January.
    34. Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    35. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.

  39. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo.
    2. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    3. Alain Hecq & Luca Margaritella & Stephan Smeekes, 2019. "Granger Causality Testing in High-Dimensional VARs: a Post-Double-Selection Procedure," Papers 1902.10991, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, 2017. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates : Comment," EMF Research Papers 15, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    8. Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid, 2013. "Macroeconomic surprises and stock returns in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 266-282, July.
    10. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    11. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    12. Campolieti, Michele & Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary, 2014. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry, provincial, national and external factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-275.
    13. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State Dependence In Labor Market Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072, August.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR using over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201589, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    17. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    18. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Methodologies in Nowcasting," Papers 2205.03318, arXiv.org.
    19. Miniaci Raffaele & Panteghini Paolo M. & Rivolta Giulia, 2022. "The estimation of reaction functions under tax competition," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 301-339, May.
    20. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.
    21. Christian Grimme, 2023. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 143-169, February.
    22. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    23. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    24. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    25. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
    26. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    27. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    28. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    29. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Vasilios Plakandaras & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "The role of housing sentiment in forecasting U.S. home sales growth: evidence from a Bayesian compressed vector autoregressive model," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2554-2567, January.
    30. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    31. Haroon Mumtaz & Ahmed Pirzada & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Non-linear effects of oil shocks on stock prices," Working Papers 865, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    32. Scheufele, Rolf & Bäurle, Gregor, 2015. "Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112931, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    33. Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014. "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
    34. Mehmet Balcilar & NICO KATZKE & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 15-05, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    35. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    36. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 435-471, December.
    37. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    38. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    39. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    41. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    42. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    43. Romero, José Vicente & Vargas, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Murcia, Andrés, 2021. "How foreign participation in the Colombian local public debt market has influenced domestic financial conditions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    44. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "Government purchases reloaded: Informational insufficiency and heterogeneity in fiscal VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 13-27.
    45. Gregor Kastner, 2016. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Papers 1608.08468, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    46. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2020. "Monetary policy and wealth inequality over the great recession in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    47. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    48. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    49. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2024. "Sectoral slowdowns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 22-40, January.
    50. Wang, Gang-Jin & Chen, Yang-Yang & Si, Hui-Bin & Xie, Chi & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Multilayer information spillover networks analysis of China’s financial institutions based on variance decompositions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 325-347.
    51. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
    52. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2014. "Fat-tails in VAR Models," Working Papers 714, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    53. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    54. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    55. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    56. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    57. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
    58. Huber, Florian & Fischer, Manfred M., 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 201, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    59. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    60. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    61. Sergey Vlasov & Elena Deryugina, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps28, Bank of Russia.
    62. Pietro Cova & Filippo Natoli, 2017. "International financial flows and the risk-taking channel," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_005, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    63. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    64. Vargas-Herrera, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Romero, Jose Vicente & Murcia, Andrés, 2020. "Effects of foreign participation in the colombian local public debt market on domestic financial conditions," Working papers 44, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    65. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2020. "Macroeconomic Data Transformations Matter," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-42, CIRANO.
    66. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    68. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    69. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    70. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    71. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    72. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    73. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    74. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    75. Christian Grimme, 2019. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 7456, CESifo.
    76. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    77. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    78. Battulga Gankhuu, 2023. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return," Papers 2305.19708, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    79. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    80. Hadjiantoni, Stella & Kontoghiorghes, Erricos John, 2022. "An alternative numerical method for estimating large-scale time-varying parameter seemingly unrelated regressions models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-18.
    81. Ostapenko, Nataliia, 2020. "Central Bank Communication: Information and Policy shocks," MPRA Paper 104501, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2020.
    82. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    83. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    84. Koop, G & Korobilis, D, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 21329, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    85. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2021. "Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2107.07804, arXiv.org.
    86. Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2022. "Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 60-98, April.
    87. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    88. Lai, Wei-Ting & Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten, 2022. "Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    89. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann & Sylvia Kaufmann & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Working Papers 16.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    90. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    91. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    92. Alex Bara & Pierre Le Roux, 2017. "South Africa's Financial Spillover Effects on Growth and Financial Development in the Southern African Development Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 400-412.
    93. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    94. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    95. Bonciani, Dario & van Roye, Björn, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Working Paper Series 1825, European Central Bank.
    96. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    97. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
    98. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2022. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
    99. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
    100. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    101. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    102. Liu, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2010. "DSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification," Bank of England working papers 402, Bank of England.
    103. Huber, Florian, 2016. "Density forecasting using Bayesian global vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 818-837.
    104. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    106. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    107. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    108. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    109. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    110. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
    111. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    112. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    113. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    114. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    115. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    116. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    117. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    118. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2017. "Granger Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 319-329, May.
    119. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    120. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    121. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    122. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    123. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper series 47_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    124. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    125. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    126. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    127. Pinshi, Christian P., 2020. "Monetary policy, uncertainty and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2020.
    128. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    129. Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017. "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
    130. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    131. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    132. Gunes Kamber & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2014. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2014-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    133. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    134. Tang, Edward Chi Ho & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Does an Oligopolistic Primary Market Matter? The Case of an Asian Housing Market," MPRA Paper 93680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    135. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    136. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    137. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10930, CESifo.
    138. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    139. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
    140. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    141. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
    142. Khaled Guesmi & Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI & Ahmed Atil & Imen Haouet, 2016. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Financial Variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2261-2274.
    143. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    144. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    145. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2017. "Monetary policy and balance sheets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 169-184.
    146. Graziano Moramarco, 2021. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," Papers 2111.00822, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    147. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    148. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    149. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    150. Pintor, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    151. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    152. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
    153. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "News and Labor Market Dynamics in the Data and in Matching Models," Economics Series Working Papers 699, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    154. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Papers 1608.02740, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    155. Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    156. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    157. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    158. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    159. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    160. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "Large time-varying parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1122, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    161. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
    162. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Working Papers 02/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    163. Beckmann, J & Koop, G & Korobilis, D & Schüssler, R, 2017. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20781, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    164. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    165. Louzis Dimitrios P., 2016. "Steady-state priors and Bayesian variable selection in VAR forecasting," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 495-527, December.
    166. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    167. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    168. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "The Federal Reserve s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    169. Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    170. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    171. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    172. Garcia, Márcio G.P. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2017. "Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 679-693.
    173. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    174. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    175. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    176. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    177. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    178. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    179. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    180. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    181. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    182. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
    183. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    184. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    185. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    186. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    187. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    188. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    189. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    190. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Options Pricing under Bayesian MS-VAR Process," Papers 2109.05998, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    191. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    192. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
    193. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    194. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    195. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    196. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    197. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    198. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    199. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    200. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    201. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    202. Cova, Pietro & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "The risk-taking channel of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    203. Kwon, Hyuck-Shin & Bang, Doo Won & Kim, Myeong Hyeon, 2017. "Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 39(3), pages 43-62.
    204. Demeshev, Boris & Malakhovskaya, Oxana, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
    205. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    206. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2017. "The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network," Globalization Institute Working Papers 313, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    207. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    208. Flavia Corneli & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: the Chinese footprint," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 772, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    209. Valeriu Nalban, 2016. "Sentiment-Driven Asymmetries in Romanian Monetary Policy Transmission," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 251-270, May.
    210. Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty: A FAVAR approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 689, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    211. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    212. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2018. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1240, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    213. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    214. Aleksandra Nocoń, 2020. "Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    215. Zachary F. Fisher & Younghoon Kim & Barbara L. Fredrickson & Vladas Pipiras, 2022. "Penalized Estimation and Forecasting of Multiple Subject Intensive Longitudinal Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 1-29, June.
    216. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper series 18-37, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    217. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    218. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    219. Christian Grimme & Marc Stöckli, 2017. "Macoeconomic Uncertainty in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 41-50, March.
    220. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    221. Jan Prüser, 2021. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 481-499, April.
    222. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality in the Euro Area?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 35-80, February.
    223. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    224. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2023. "The effects of shocks to interest rate expectations in the euro area: Estimates at the country level," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 643-656, April.
    225. Maurin, Laurent & Andersson, Malin & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," EIB Working Papers 2021/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    226. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    227. Jamie Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2019. "New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets," CAMA Working Papers 2019-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    228. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    229. Nguyen, Bao & Sum, Dek, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Balance Adjustments in Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 93033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    230. Paolo Andreini & Donato Ceci, 2019. "A Horse Race in High Dimensional Space," CEIS Research Paper 452, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Feb 2019.
    231. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1007, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    232. George J. Bratsiotis & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2020. "Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2014, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    233. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    234. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-46, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    235. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    236. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    237. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    238. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    239. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    240. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," MPRA Paper 100184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    241. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    242. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    243. Elton Beqiraj & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2014. "Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal Policies inHigh Unemployment EZ Countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 165, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    244. Doo Won Bang & HyuckShin Kwon, 2022. "Policy Impact Analysis of Housing Policies Using Housing Cycles," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    245. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    246. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    247. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession," Papers 2007.15419, arXiv.org.
    248. Pellényi, Gábor, 2012. "A monetáris politika hatása a magyar gazdaságra. Elemzés strukturális, dinamikus faktormodellel [The sectoral effects of monetary policy in Hungary: a structural factor]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-284.
    249. Marco Scutari, 2020. "Bayesian network models for incomplete and dynamic data," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 74(3), pages 397-419, August.
    250. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    251. Michele Piffer, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Defaults in the US," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1559, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    252. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    253. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    254. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    255. García, Javier Sánchez & Rambaud, Salvador Cruz, 2023. "Macrofinancial determinants of volatility transmission in a network of European sovereign debt markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    256. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    257. Giorgio Primiceri & Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Francisco Buera, 2008. "Learning the Wealth of Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    258. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    259. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Mampho Modise, 2010. "Has the SARB become more effective post inflation targeting?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 187-204, August.
    260. Florian Huber, 2014. "Density Forecasting using Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Common Stochastic Volatility," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp179, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    261. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    262. Hovick Shahnazarian & Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2017. "Forecasting and Analysing Corporate Tax Revenues in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 50-74, Autumn.
    263. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    264. Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    265. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    266. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    267. Roy, Ripon & Bashar, Omar H.N.M. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2023. "The cross-industry effects of monetary policy: New evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    268. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    269. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2015. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Discussion Papers 45/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    270. Florian Huber & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p25, European Regional Science Association.
    271. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    272. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Financial Stress and Their Non-Linear Impact on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2014/07, Czech National Bank.
    273. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    274. de Menezes Barboza, Ricardo & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2019. "Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 223-236.
    275. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures," Working Papers 22-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 30 May 2023.
    276. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    277. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    278. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    279. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    280. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Reserve Requirements," EcoMod2012 3850, EcoMod.
    281. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    282. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2021. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2111.07225, arXiv.org.
    283. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
    284. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    285. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Leichte Belebung der internationalen Konjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(1), pages 5-32.
    286. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "Прогнозування розвитку економіки України на основі баєсівських авторегресійних (BVAR) моделей з різними priors [Forecasting Economic Development of Ukraine based on BVAR models with different prior," MPRA Paper 44725, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2012.
    287. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-09, CIRANO.
    288. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    289. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    290. Paul Ho, 2020. "Global Robust Bayesian Analysis in Large Models," Working Paper 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    291. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    292. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    293. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    294. Mumtaz, Haroon & Musso, Alberto, 2018. "The evolving impact of global, region-specific and country-specific uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2147, European Central Bank.
    295. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    296. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    297. Jan Frait & Simona Malovana & Vladimir Tomsik, 2015. "The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in the Pursuit of the Central Bank's Primary Objectives," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2014/2015, chapter 0, pages 110-120, Czech National Bank.
    298. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    299. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    300. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann & Rossen Valkanov, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," Working Papers 57, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    301. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    302. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
    303. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    304. Marek Rusnák & Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth, 2011. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2011/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2011.
    305. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    306. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    307. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    308. Tino Berger & Julia Richter & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Financial factors and the business cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2020-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    309. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
    310. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
    311. Dimitris Korobilis, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Econometrics, pages 403-431, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    312. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," GRIPS Discussion Papers 18-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    313. Mihaela Simionescu, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment and Sustainable Development. A Regional Approach for Romania," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 162702, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    314. Christophe Croux & Peter Exterkate, 2011. "Sparse and Robust Factor Modelling," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-122/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    315. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    316. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    317. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    318. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    319. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," Bank of England working papers 657, Bank of England.
    320. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    321. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    322. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    323. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    324. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    325. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    326. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    327. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    328. Meri Papavangjeli, 2019. "Forecasting the Albanian short-term inflation through a Bayesian VAR model," IHEID Working Papers 16-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 09 Oct 2019.
    329. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    330. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    331. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    332. Gian Paulo Soave, 2020. "International Drivers of Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 716-726.
    333. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2012/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2012.
    334. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral employment dynamics in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2020-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    335. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    336. Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "The Role of Oil Prices in the Forecasts of South African Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-01, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    337. Annika Schnücker, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1612, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    338. Luca Sala, 2013. "DSGE models in the frequency domain," Working Papers 504, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    339. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    340. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    341. Alain KABUNDI & Rangan GUPTA, 2009. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach," EcoMod2009 21500048, EcoMod.
    342. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    343. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber , Florian, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Working Papers 0590, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    344. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "US financial shocks and the distribution of income and consumption in the UK," Working Papers 845, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    345. Chris Redl, 2015. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    346. Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
    347. Turunen Harry & Zhutova Anastasia & Lemoine Matthieu, 2023. "Stochastic Simulation of the FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Uncertainty around Conditional Forecasts," Working papers 920, Banque de France.
    348. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    349. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    350. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    351. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 903, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    352. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    353. Sa, Filipa & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2010. "Monetary policy, capital inflows and the housing boom," Bank of England working papers 405, Bank of England.
    354. Li, Qiang & Nong, Huifu, 2022. "A closer look at Chinese housing market: Measuring intra-city submarket connectedness in Shanghai and Guangzhou," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    355. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    356. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2011/218, International Monetary Fund.
    357. Beqiraj, Elton & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2023. "Subsidizing new jobs in the Euro-zone periphery," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 380-401.
    358. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
    359. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    360. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Augmented Dynamic Gordon Growth Model," Papers 2201.06012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    361. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201543, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    362. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    363. Oskar Gustafsson & Mattias Villani & Pär Stockhammar, 2023. "Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters from noisy marginal likelihood estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 577-595, June.
    364. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    365. Jürgen Antony & D. Broer, 2015. "Euro area financial shocks and economic activity in The Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 571-595, August.
    366. Niels Gilbert & Sebastiaan Pool, 2020. "Sectoral allocation and macroeconomic imbalances in EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 945-984, November.
    367. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    368. Andersson, Malin & Maurin, Laurent & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," Working Paper Series 2606, European Central Bank.
    369. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    370. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    371. Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregessions," Working Papers 115, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    372. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non standard Monetary Policy measures and monetary developments," Working Papers ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    373. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Working Paper Series 1868, European Central Bank.
    374. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    375. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    376. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    377. Maya Jalloul & Mirela Miescu, 2021. "Equity Market Connectedness across Regimes of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 324219805, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    378. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    379. Pinter, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," Bank of England working papers 616, Bank of England.
    380. Martin Iseringhausen & Ivan Petrella & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Aggregate skewness and the business cycle," Working Papers 53, European Stability Mechanism.
    381. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C. C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1638-1665, December.
    382. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    383. Dison, Will & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
    384. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    385. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2014. "Theory-coherent forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 145-155.
    386. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Working Papers 617, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    387. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    388. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    389. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    390. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    391. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
    392. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    393. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    394. Petrova, Katerina, 2022. "Asymptotically valid Bayesian inference in the presence of distributional misspecification in VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 154-182.
    395. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro, 2023. "The motifs of risk transmission in multivariate time series: Application to commodity prices," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    396. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    397. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    398. Song Song & Peter J. Bickel, 2011. "Large Vector Auto Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    399. Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "DSGE priors for BVAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 627-656, March.
    400. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    401. Fady Barsoum, 2015. "Point and Density Forecasts Using an Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-19, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    402. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    403. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2021. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    404. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    405. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    406. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    407. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2014. "The credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system: Looking through the prism of MS-VAR models with time-varying transition probabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    408. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    409. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2019. "Direct and Network Effects of Idiosyncratic TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 65, Bank of Lithuania.
    410. Tomasz Wozniak, 2016. "Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2021, The University of Melbourne.
    411. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    412. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2009. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    413. Franz Ramsauer & Aleksey Min & Michael Lingauer, 2019. "Estimation of FAVAR Models for Incomplete Data with a Kalman Filter for Factors with Observable Components," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-43, July.
    414. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    415. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    416. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    417. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    418. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    419. Kemisola Christianah Osundina & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Bolaji A. Adesoye, 2018. "Interest Rate Channel and Real Economy in Nigeria: A Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 313-321.
    420. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    421. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    422. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    423. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARs: A flexible Kronecker error covariance structure," CAMA Working Papers 2015-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    424. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    425. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
    426. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    427. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    428. Krampe, J. & Paparoditis, E. & Trenkler, C., 2023. "Structural inference in sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 276-300.
    429. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    430. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Estimating Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR Models," Papers 1912.02231, arXiv.org.
    431. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    432. Christian Grimme, 2017. "Measurement of Corporate Uncertainty in Germany – the ifo Dispersion Measure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 19-25, August.
    433. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    434. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    435. Liao Zhu & Haoxuan Wu & Martin T. Wells, 2021. "A News-based Machine Learning Model for Adaptive Asset Pricing," Papers 2106.07103, arXiv.org.
    436. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    437. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    438. Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2017. "An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Multiple Structural Change in Multivariate Time Series," MPRA Paper 79211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    439. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Domenico Sartore, 2018. "A scoring rule for factor and autoregressive models under misspecification," Working Papers 2018:18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    440. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    441. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    442. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    443. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    444. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    445. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Macroeconomic modeling for optimal stabilization policy in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    446. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    447. Kenwin Maung, 2021. "Estimating high-dimensional Markov-switching VARs," Papers 2107.12552, arXiv.org.
    448. Gal, Peter & Pinter, Gabor, 2013. "Capital over the business cycle: renting versus ownership," Bank of England working papers 478, Bank of England.
    449. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    450. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies," Working Papers 2012-12, CEPII research center.
    451. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    452. Gustavo Fruet Dias & George Kapetanios, 2014. "Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    453. Bicu, A.C. & Lieb, L.M., 2015. "Cross-border effects of fiscal policy in the Eurozone," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    454. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    455. Carstensen, K. & Salzmann, L., 2017. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 134-161.
    456. Schnücker, Annika, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    457. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2022. "Inflation and climate change: the role of climate variables in inflation forecasting and macro modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    458. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    459. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2020. "Estimating the effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme at the country level," Discussion Papers 29/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    460. Laura Liu & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2018. "Monetary Policy across Space and Time," Working Paper 18-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    461. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    462. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Justiniano, Alejandro, 2019. "Forecasting economic activity with mixed frequency BVARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1692-1707.
    463. Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    464. Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2022. "Sovereign Uncertainty," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    465. De Nora, Giorgia, 2023. "Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression with narrative identification. An application to monetary policy in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    466. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    467. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
    468. Eva Janssens & Robin Lumsdaine, 2021. "Sectoral slowdowns in the UK: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    469. Anthony Orji & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Chiamaka F. Okolomike & Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji, 2022. "Do Capital Inflows and Financial Development, Influence Economic Growth in West Africa? Further Evidence from Transmission Mechanisms," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 7(1), pages 71-94.
    470. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    471. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 173173908, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    472. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    473. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Equity--Linked Life Insurances on Maximum of Several Assets," Papers 2111.04038, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    474. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    475. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    476. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    477. Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    478. Sebastian Ankargren & Måns Unosson & Yukai Yang, 2018. "A mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression with a steady-state prior," CREATES Research Papers 2018-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    479. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    480. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    481. Tesi Aliaj & Milos Ciganovic & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2023. "Nowcasting inflation with Lasso‐regularized vector autoregressions and mixed frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 464-480, April.
    482. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    483. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    484. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    485. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    486. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    487. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    488. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    489. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Nelson, Benjamin, 2012. "Simple banking: profitability and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 452, Bank of England.
    490. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    491. Jiahe Lin & George Michailidis, 2019. "Regularized Estimation of High-dimensional Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Models," Papers 1912.04146, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    492. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    493. Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Mancini, Tullio & Olmo, Jose, 2021. "Granger causality detection in high-dimensional systems using feedforward neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 920-940.
    494. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    495. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    496. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    497. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    498. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    499. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    500. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    501. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giuliodori, Massimo & Lengyel, Andras & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2023. "Changing patterns of risk-sharing channels in the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 2849, European Central Bank.
    502. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    503. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    504. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2021. "Policy and Business Cycle Shocks: A Structural Factor Model Representation of the US Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, August.
    505. Warne, Anders & Droumaguet, Matthieu & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Working Paper Series 1794, European Central Bank.
    506. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & Mumtaz, Hroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2022. "A tail of labour supply and a tale of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 989, Bank of England.
    507. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Operational aspect of the policy coordination for financial stability: role of Jeffreys–Lindley’s paradox in operations research," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 57-81, November.
    508. Alexie Alupoaiei & Ana-Maria Sandica, 2013. "Assessing Structural Convergence between Romanian Economy and Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 372-383, July.
    509. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    510. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Joint estimation of multiple network Granger causal models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 120-133.
    511. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    512. И Управления Мир Экономики, 2017. "Байесовский подход к анализу влияния монетарной политики на макроэкономические показатели России. Bayesian approach to the analysis of monetary policy impact on Russian macroeconomics indicators," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(4), pages 53-70.
    513. Ross Doppelt & Keith O'Hara, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregressions and an Application to Identified Technology Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    514. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2023. "A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    515. Dominik Bertsche & Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2023. "Directed graphs and variable selection in large vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 223-246, March.
    516. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    517. Kociecki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions," Working Paper Series 1492, European Central Bank.
    518. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2022. "Local Projection Inference in High Dimensions," Papers 2209.03218, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    519. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    520. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    521. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    522. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    523. Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Working Paper Series 2602, European Central Bank.
    524. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    525. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    526. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    527. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    528. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali & Kalli, Rajesh & Managi, Shunsuke & Majhi, Babita, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 324-339.
    529. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    530. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Regularized joint estimation of related vector autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 164-177.
    531. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    532. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    533. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    534. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    535. Gonzalo Echavarría M. & Wildo González P, 2011. "Un Modelo de Factores Dinámicos de Pequeña Escala para el Imacec," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 109-118, August.
    536. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    537. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    538. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
    539. Antonio Pacifico, 2023. "The Impact of Socioeconomic and Environmental Indicators on Economic Development: An Interdisciplinary Empirical Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, May.
    540. Gelper, Sarah & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Identifying Demand Effects in a Large Network of Product Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 25-39.
    541. Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
    542. Yuan Yan & Hsin-Cheng Huang & Marc G. Genton, 2021. "Vector Autoregressive Models with Spatially Structured Coefficients for Time Series on a Spatial Grid," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 387-408, September.
    543. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2021. "Demand or supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2608, European Central Bank.
    544. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    545. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    546. Abdul Salam & Marco Grzegorczyk, 2023. "Model averaging for sparse seemingly unrelated regression using Bayesian networks among the errors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 779-808, June.
    547. Salzmann, Leonard, 2019. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," EconStor Preprints 206691, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    548. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    549. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    550. Vijaykumar Dhannur & Ashwin R. John, 2021. "Foreign direct investment and export performance using the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression framework," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1679-1685, October.
    551. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    552. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2016. "The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    553. Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Zörner, Thomas O., 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-3, University of Salzburg.
    554. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    555. Federico D'Amario & Milos Ciganovic, 2022. "Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Log-Returns: a LASSO-VAR and Sentiment Approach," Papers 2210.00883, arXiv.org.
    556. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2016. "A Bayesian Infinite Hidden Markov Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-107/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    557. Qian, Hang, 2016. "A computationally efficient method for vector autoregression with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 433-437.
    558. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    559. Lozano, Francisco-Javier, 2013. "Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la venta de viviendas [Evaluation of forecasting models for house sales]," MPRA Paper 118652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    560. Guanhao Feng & Nicholas Polson, 2020. "Regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 591-608, December.
    561. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    562. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    563. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    564. Stefański, Maciej, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects and transmission channels of quantitative easing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    565. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," KAE Working Papers 2016-022, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    566. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    567. Anttonen, Jetro, 2018. "Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data," ETLA Working Papers 62, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    568. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    569. Pauwels, Koen & Demirci, Ceren & Yildirim, Gokhan & Srinivasan, Shuba, 2016. "The impact of brand familiarity on online and offline media synergy," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 739-753.
    570. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2013. "Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models," Working Paper Series 1536, European Central Bank.
    571. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.
    572. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    573. Koop, Gary, 2014. "Forecasting with dimension switching VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 280-290.
    574. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    575. Birmingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2011. "The Irish Macroeconomic Response to an External Shock with an Application to Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    576. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    577. Gregor Kastner & Florian Huber, 2020. "Sparse Bayesian vector autoregressions in huge dimensions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1142-1165, November.
    578. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    579. Haroon Mumtaz, 2020. "A Generalised Stochastic Volatility in Mean VAR. An Updated Algorithm," Working Papers 908, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    580. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    581. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    582. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    583. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    584. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    585. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    586. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    587. Haroon Mumtaz & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Vulnerability to Climate Change: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 961, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    588. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    589. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    590. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    591. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2016. "A Bayesian VAR benchmark for COMPASS," Bank of England working papers 583, Bank of England.
    592. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    593. Ankargren Sebastian & Unosson Måns & Yang Yukai, 2020. "A Flexible Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression with a Steady-State Prior," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-41, July.
    594. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    595. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    596. Lee, Namgil & Choi, Hyemi & Kim, Sung-Ho, 2016. "Bayes shrinkage estimation for high-dimensional VAR models with scale mixture of normal distributions for noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 250-276.
    597. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    598. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fulvia Marotta, 2021. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Papers 933, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    599. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    600. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Zerom, Dawit, 2019. "Semiparametric quantile averaging in the presence of high-dimensional predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 891-909.
    601. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    602. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    603. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    604. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    605. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2020. "Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 27763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    606. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    607. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    608. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    609. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    610. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    611. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    612. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    613. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    614. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
    615. Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Machine Learning Macroeconometrics: A Primer," Working Paper series 18-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    616. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    617. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    618. Jalloul, Maya & Miescu, Mirela, 2023. "Equity market connectedness across regimes of geopolitical risks: Historical evidence and theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    619. Mitchell, James & Robertson, Donald & Wright, Stephen, 2016. "What univariate models tell us about multivariate macroeconomic models," EMF Research Papers 08, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    620. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    621. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    622. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    623. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    624. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
    625. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    626. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    627. Spånberg, Erik & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2019. "The importance of the financial system for the current account in Sweden: A sectoral approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 91-103.
    628. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    629. Ping Wu & Gary Koop, 2022. "Fast, Order-Invariant Bayesian Inference in VARs using the Eigendecomposition of the Error Covariance Matrix," Working Papers 2310, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    630. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    631. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    632. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    633. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    634. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.
    635. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    636. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    637. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR," Working Papers 855, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    638. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting with Dynamic Models using Shrinkage-based Estimation," Working Papers 635, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    639. Adam Altăr & Matei Nicolae Kubinschi & Alina Zaharia, 2021. "Uncovering the Dynamic Relationship between Credit and Sustainable Economic Growth in Selected CEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    640. Elton Beqiraj & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in the Euro-zone Periphery," Working Papers in Public Economics 167, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    641. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    642. Caro Navarro, Ángela & Peña, Daniel, 2018. "Estimation of the common component in Dynamic Factor Models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 27047, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    643. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    644. Carriero, Andrea & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Credit Conditions and the Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," EMF Research Papers 17, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    645. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    646. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    647. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2018. "Efecto de las condiciones financieras sobre el desempeño del sector Construcción [Effect of financial conditions on the performance of the Construction sector]," MPRA Paper 118261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    648. Salmsnov, Oleg & Babina, Natalia & Koba, Ekaterina & Koba, Ekaterina & Lopatina, Olga, 2017. "Efficiency of Monetary Policy Mechanisms Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis in the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 112276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2017.
    649. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    650. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    651. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    652. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    653. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    654. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    655. Wang,Dieter & Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro Elizondo,Andres Fernando & Spencer,Phoebe Girouard, 2020. "Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9413, The World Bank.
    656. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    657. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "The economic drivers of volatility and uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1285, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    658. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: DSGE‐VAR approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 715-729, December.
    659. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    660. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.
    661. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral K., 2017. "The time-varying correlation between output and prices in the United States over the period 1800–2014," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 98-108.
    662. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    663. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    664. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    665. Eleftheria Kostika & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2022. "Assessing the effectiveness of the emergency liquidity assistance tool in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4142-4153, October.
    666. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    667. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    668. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    669. Shevelev A.A., 2017. "Bayesian approach to evaluate the impact of external shocks on Russian macroeconomics indicators," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 26-40.
    670. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    671. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," Working Papers hal-04141032, HAL.
    672. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, "undated". "The distributional effects of climate change. An empirical analysis," Working Papers 966, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    673. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    674. Farrukh Suvankulov, 2016. "Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models," Staff Analytical Notes 16-8, Bank of Canada.
    675. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    676. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    677. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    678. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    679. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    680. Felipe Leal & Carlos Molina & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Proyección de la Inflación en Chile con Métodos de Machine Learning," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 860, Central Bank of Chile.
    681. MAMATZAKIS, emmanuel & MAMATZAKIS, E, 2022. "Understanding the impact of travel on wellbeing: evidence for Great Britain during the pandemic," MPRA Paper 112974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    682. Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015. "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: pro," MPRA Paper 63517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    683. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "Technical appendix to: a new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145533, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    684. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    685. Haruna, Issahaku, 2019. "Harnessing international remittances for financial development: The role of monetary policy," MPRA Paper 97004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jul 2019.
    686. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "The Vector Error Correction Index Model: Representation, Estimation and Identification," CEIS Research Paper 556, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Apr 2023.
    687. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    688. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    689. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    690. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    691. Petrova, Katerina, 2019. "A quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach to time varying parameter VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 286-306.
    692. Salmanov, Oleg & Zaernjuk, Victor & Lopatina, Olga & Drachena, Irina & Vikulina, Evgeniya, 2016. "Investigating the Impact of Monetary Policy using the Vector Autoregression Method," MPRA Paper 112280, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2016.
    693. Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália, 2020. "Investment vs debt trade-offs in the post-COVID-19 European economy," EIB Working Papers 2020/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    694. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    695. Bin Jiang & Anastasios Panagiotelis & George Athanasopoulos & Rob Hyndman & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Bayesian Rank Selection in Multivariate Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

  40. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting GDP using factor model: An empirical study from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 10-26, May.
    2. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "Nowcasting The New Turkish Gdp," Working Papers 1702, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    3. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    5. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Mr. Christopher Otrok, 2015. "The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country," IMF Working Papers 2015/040, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/07, European University Institute.
    7. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gul, Selcuk & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Local currency bond risk premia of emerging markets: The role of local and global factors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    9. van Roye, Björn, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    12. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    13. Hilde C. Bj⊘rnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh Khayati Zahiri, 2020. "Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 285-310, April.
    14. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    16. Claus, Edda & Dungey, Mardi, 2016. "Can monetary policy surprises affect the term structure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 68-83.
    17. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Non-Stationary Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 1910.09841, arXiv.org.
    18. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    20. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    21. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Bessec, M., 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    23. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    24. Bhaghoe, Sailesh & Ooft, Gavin, 2021. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth in Suriname with Factor-MIDAS and Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," Studies in Applied Economics 176, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    25. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    26. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Davide Ferrari & Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach," Working Papers No 11/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    29. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu, 2010. "A Dynamic Factor Model of Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product Growth in the Caribbean: The Case of Cuba and the Bahamas," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 20.
    30. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
    31. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    32. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George & Zhao, Yongchen, 2013. "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 219-221.
    33. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    34. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    35. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    36. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    38. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    39. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
    40. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    41. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    42. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    43. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    44. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    45. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    46. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
    47. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Bornali Bhandari & Sudipto Mundle, 2023. "Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 213-234, March.
    48. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    49. Anesti, Nikoleta & Galvão, Ana & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England, revised 31 Jan 2020.
    50. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    52. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    53. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    54. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2014. "Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth," Working Papers 1411, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    55. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    57. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    58. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    59. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    60. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    61. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain, 2014. "Nowcasting causality in mixed frequency vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 74-78.
    62. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2021. "On the Use of Current or Forward-Looking Data in Monetary Policy: A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8853, CESifo.
    63. Henzel Steffen R. & Wohlrabe Klaus & Lehmann Robert, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.
    64. Suppawong Tuarob & Thanapon Noraset & Tanisa Tawichsri, 2022. "Using Large-Scale Social Media Data for Population-Level Mental Health Monitoring and Public Sentiment Assessment: A Case Study of Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 169, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    65. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    66. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," MPRA Paper 96276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Cahan, Ercument & Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2023. "Factor-based imputation of missing values and covariances in panel data of large dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 113-131.
    68. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2021. "Matrix Completion, Counterfactuals, and Factor Analysis of Missing Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1746-1763, October.
    69. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    70. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206, November.
    71. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    72. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    73. Scott Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime," Working Paper Series WP 2019-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    74. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    75. Olivier BIAU & Angela D´ELIA, 2010. "Euro Area GDP Forecast Using Large Survey Dataset - A Random Forest Approach," EcoMod2010 259600029, EcoMod.
    76. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    77. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    78. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    79. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    80. Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
    81. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    82. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    83. Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot J. Muller, 2021. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 905-921, December.
    84. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    85. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    86. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    87. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    88. Fornaro, Paolo, 2020. "Nowcasting Industrial Production Using Uncoventional Data Sources," ETLA Working Papers 80, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    89. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    90. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 151-178, June.
    91. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    92. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    93. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    94. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    95. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    96. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    97. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2018. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," CESifo Working Paper Series 7079, CESifo.
    98. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    99. Ramazan Yanik & Asfia Binte Osman & Ozcan Ozturk, 2020. "Impact of manufacturing PMI on stock market index: A study on Turkey," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 6(3), pages 104-108.
    100. Enrico di Bella & Lucia Leporatti & Filomena Maggino, 2018. "Big Data and Social Indicators: Actual Trends and New Perspectives," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 869-878, February.
    101. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    102. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    103. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanović, Dalibor, 2018. "Mixed frequency models with MA components," Discussion Papers 02/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    104. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    105. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    106. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
    107. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    108. Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    109. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    110. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "Efficient estimation of approximate factor models via penalized maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 1-18.
    111. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    112. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    113. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    114. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    115. Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2018. "Nowcasting Indian GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(2), pages 259-282, April.
    116. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    117. di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
    118. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    119. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    120. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    121. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    122. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    123. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS – A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
    124. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2019. "Efficient matrix approach for classical inference in state space models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 22-27.
    125. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    126. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    127. Chen, Rong & Xiao, Han & Yang, Dan, 2021. "Autoregressive models for matrix-valued time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 539-560.
    128. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    129. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    130. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "ETLAnow: A Model for Forecasting with Big Data – Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches in Europe," ETLA Reports 54, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    131. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    132. Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
    133. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    134. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    135. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    136. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    137. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    138. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    139. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    140. Łukasz Lenart & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2016. "Do market prices improve the accuracy of inflation forecasting in Poland? A disaggregated approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 365-394.
    141. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    142. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    143. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2020. "Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 5(3), pages 9-14, September.
    144. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    145. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Bastianin, Andrea & Missale, Alessandro & Rossi, Eduardo, 2020. "Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A model of US capital flows," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 427-443.
    146. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    147. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    148. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    149. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    150. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
    151. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    152. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    153. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    154. Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.
    155. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    156. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    157. Filippo Ferroni & Benjamin Klaus, 2015. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3791-3815, July.
    158. James Sampi, 2016. "High Dimensional Factor Models: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Working Papers 75, Peruvian Economic Association.
    159. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    160. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    161. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
    162. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    163. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    164. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    165. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    166. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    167. Barsoum, Fady & Stankiewicz, Sandra, 2015. "Forecasting GDP growth using mixed-frequency models with switching regimes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50.
    168. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    169. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    170. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Paper 2014/10, Norges Bank.
    171. Zhenzhong Wang & Zhengyuan Zhu & Cindy Yu, 2020. "Variable Selection in Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors," Papers 2007.10160, arXiv.org.
    172. Qiu, Yue, 2020. "Forecasting the Consumer Confidence Index with tree-based MIDAS regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 247-256.
    173. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    174. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    175. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    176. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    177. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    178. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    179. Dimpfl, Thomas & Langen, Tobias, 2015. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112921, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    180. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    181. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2019. "Nowcasting Using Mixed Frequency Methods: An Application to the Scottish Economy," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 12-45, September.
    182. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," CESifo Working Paper Series 3956, CESifo.
    183. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 507-518.
    184. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    185. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    186. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    187. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    188. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    189. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    190. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    191. Mr. Serhat Solmaz & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market," IMF Working Papers 2015/269, International Monetary Fund.
    192. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with LSTM and Mixed Frequency Time Series Data," PIER Discussion Papers 165, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    193. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    194. Hagher Ben Rhomdhane & Brahim Mehdi Benlallouna, 2022. "Nowcasting real GDP in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed-frequency models," IHEID Working Papers 02-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    195. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    196. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2020. "Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
    197. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    198. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    199. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    200. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri & Saarinen, Lauri, 2017. "Nowcasting Finnish Turnover Indexes Using Firm-Level Data," ETLA Working Papers 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    201. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    202. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    203. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    204. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    205. Guzman, Giselle C., 2010. "An inflation expectations horserace," MPRA Paper 36511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    206. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    207. Alifatussaadah, Ardiana & Primariesty, Anindya Diva & Soleh, Agus Mohamad & Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2019. "Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?," MPRA Paper 105252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    208. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    209. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    210. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    211. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    212. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    213. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    214. Daniel Hopp, 2021. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Papers 2106.08901, arXiv.org.
    215. Björn Roye, 2014. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 101-126, February.
    216. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    217. Paolo Andreini & Cosimo Izzo & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "Deep Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 2007.11887, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    218. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    219. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    220. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    221. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    222. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
    223. Sayag, Doron & Ben-hur, Dano & Pfeffermann, Danny, 2022. "Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 253-266.
    224. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio, 2014. "Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 757, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    225. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    226. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    227. Ruoxuan Xiong & Markus Pelger, 2019. "Large Dimensional Latent Factor Modeling with Missing Observations and Applications to Causal Inference," Papers 1910.08273, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    228. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    229. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    230. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    231. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    232. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    233. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    234. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    235. Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar, 2020. "Including news data in forecasting macro economic performance of China," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 585-611, December.
    236. Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2019. "Short‐term forecasts of economic activity: Are fortnightly factors useful?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 207-221, April.
    237. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    238. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    239. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5522, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    240. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    241. Millo, Giovanni, 2017. "A simple randomization test for spatial correlation in the presence of common factors and serial correlation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 28-38.
    242. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    243. Pedro Galeano & Daniel Peña, 2019. "Data science, big data and statistics," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(2), pages 289-329, June.
    244. Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 21-31.
    245. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    246. Fatehkia, Masoomali & Kashyap, Ridhi & Weber, Ingmar, 2018. "Using Facebook Ad Data to Track the Global Digital Gender Gap," SocArXiv rkvb3, Center for Open Science.
    247. Anesti, Nikoleta & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George, 2021. "Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels," Bank of England working papers 923, Bank of England.
    248. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    249. Francisco Corona & Graciela González-Farías & Pedro Orraca, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for the Mexican economy: are common trends useful when predicting economic activity?," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, December.
    250. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    251. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Missale & Eduardo Rossi, 2018. "Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A MIDAS-SVAR model of US capital flows," Papers 1802.00793, arXiv.org.
    252. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    253. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    254. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    255. Avellán, Guillermo & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Salcedo, Juan José, 2020. "A Streamlined Procedure to Construct a Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index with an Application to the Ecuadorian Economy," MPRA Paper 102593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    256. Bianconi, Marcelo & Hua, Xiaxin & Tan, Chih Ming, 2015. "Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 352-368.
    257. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    258. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    259. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    260. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Forecasting daily electricity prices with monthly macroeconomic variables," Working Paper Series 2250, European Central Bank.
    261. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    262. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, November.
    263. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    264. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    265. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    266. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    267. Franco, Ray John Gabriel & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    268. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    269. Lorenzo Donadio & Rossano Schifanella & Claudia R Binder & Emanuele Massaro, 2021. "Leveraging insurance customer data to characterize socioeconomic indicators of Swiss municipalities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, March.
    270. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    271. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Staff Working Papers 22-10, Bank of Canada.
    272. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2015. "Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Working Papers 2015-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    273. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    274. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    275. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    276. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    277. Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Philip Liu & Andrea M. Maechler & Chris Marsh & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2012. "Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 2012/246, International Monetary Fund.
    278. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    279. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    280. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    281. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
    282. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    283. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    284. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
    285. Mahmut Gunay, 2018. "Nowcasting Annual Turkish GDP Growth with MIDAS," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    286. Camacho, Maximo, 2013. "Mixed-frequency VAR models with Markov-switching dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 369-373.
    287. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2021. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2102.11780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    288. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    289. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    290. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    291. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    292. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    293. David J. Hand, 2018. "Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 555-605, June.
    294. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    295. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    296. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    297. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
    298. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    299. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    300. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    301. Ruey Yau & C. James Hueng, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth for Small Open Economies with a Mixed-Frequency Structural Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 177-198, June.
    302. Seabold,Skipper & Coppola,Andrea, 2015. "Nowcasting prices using Google trends : an application to Central America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7398, The World Bank.
    303. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    304. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    305. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    306. Venera Tomaselli & Giovanni Giuffrida & Simona Gozzo & Francesco Mazzeo Rinaldi, 2020. "Building Decision-making Indicators Through Network Analysis of Big Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 33-49, August.
    307. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    308. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    309. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    310. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr� K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    311. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    312. Su, Liangjun & Miao, Ke & Jin, Sainan, 2019. "On Factor Models with Random Missing: EM Estimation, Inference, and Cross Validation," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 4-2019, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    313. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    314. Benedikt Maas, 2020. "Short‐term forecasting of the US unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 394-411, April.
    315. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.
    316. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    317. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    318. M. Elshendy & A. Fronzetti Colladon & E. Battistoni & P. A. Gloor, 2021. "Using four different online media sources to forecast the crude oil price," Papers 2105.09154, arXiv.org.
    319. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2018. "A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP," Discussion Papers 10/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    320. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    321. Peter Fuleky & Carl, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 2013-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    322. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    323. Loermann, Julius & Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting US GDP with artificial neural networks," MPRA Paper 95459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    324. Resce, Giuliano & Maynard, Diana, 2018. "What matters most to people around the world? Retrieving Better Life Index priorities on Twitter," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 61-75.
    325. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    326. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    327. Qian Chen & Xiang Gao & Shan Xie & Li Sun & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2021. "On the Predictability of China Macro Indicator with Carbon Emissions Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    328. Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    329. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    330. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    331. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2011. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 201110, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    332. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    333. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    334. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    335. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
    336. Kyosuke Chikamatsu, Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, Kazuki Otaka, 2018. "Nowcasting Japanese GDPs," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    337. Ankargren Sebastian & Unosson Måns & Yang Yukai, 2020. "A Flexible Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression with a Steady-State Prior," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-41, July.
    338. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    339. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    340. Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2016. "A policymaker's guide to a Euro area stabilization fund," Post-Print hal-01526022, HAL.
    341. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    342. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    343. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    344. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Jäger, Philipp & Jessen, Robin & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2018. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung setzt sich fort, Gefährdungen nehmen zu," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(3), pages 21-56.
    345. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    346. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    347. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 970, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    348. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    349. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
    350. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    351. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I.Ethem, 2019. "Local currency bond risk premia: A panel evidence on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 182-196.
    352. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    353. Filippo di Mauro & Filippo di Mauro, Fabio Fornari, 2014. "Going granular: The importance of firm-level equity information in anticipating economic activity," EcoMod2014 6809, EcoMod.
    354. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    355. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    356. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    357. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Consumption in Real Time: The Role of Consumer Confidence Surveys," Discussion Papers 12-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    358. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    359. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers No 08/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    360. Guillermo Avellán & Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan José Salcedo Cruz, 2022. "Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1517-1542, April.
    361. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.
    362. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    363. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    364. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    365. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Textos para discussão 521, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    366. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    367. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    368. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Nikita E. German, 2018. "Forecasting Current GDP Dynamics With Google Search Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 83-94, December.
    369. Francisco Corona & Graciela Gonz'alez-Far'ias & Jes'us L'opez-P'erez, 2021. "A nowcasting approach to generate timely estimates of Mexican economic activity: An application to the period of COVID-19," Papers 2101.10383, arXiv.org.
    370. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    371. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
    372. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    373. Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "Nowcasting Peruvian GDP using Leading Indicators and Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 2018-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    374. Yan Leng & Nakash Ali Babwany & Alex Pentland, 2021. "Unraveling the association between socioeconomic diversity and consumer price index in a tourism country," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    375. Daniel Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock, 2020. "U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," NBER Working Papers 26954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    376. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    377. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi-Frequency and Data-Rich Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 360-384, June.
    378. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    379. Paolo Fornaro & Henri Luomaranta, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish real economic activity: a machine learning approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 55-71, January.
    380. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    381. Fatehkia, Masoomali & Kashyap, Ridhi & Weber, Ingmar, 2018. "Using Facebook ad data to track the global digital gender gap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 189-209.
    382. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    383. Guzman, Giselle C., 2011. "The case for higher frequency inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 36656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    384. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    385. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    386. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    387. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    388. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    389. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    390. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    391. Jeffrey Sheen & Stefan Trück & Ben Zhe Wang, 2015. "Daily Business and External Condition Indices for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 38-53, June.
    392. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    393. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Economic Cycles and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    394. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. ""Nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth with machine-learning sentiment indicators"," IREA Working Papers 202103, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2021.
    395. Leippold, Markus & Yang, Hanlin, 2019. "Particle filtering, learning, and smoothing for mixed-frequency state-space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 25-41.
    396. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    397. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    398. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Economic Upswing in Germany - Major Decisions Facing Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(20), pages 03-61, October.
    399. France, Stephen L. & Shi, Yuying & Kazandjian, Brett, 2021. "Web Trends: A valuable tool for business research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 666-679.
    400. Byron Botha & Geordie Reid & Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African GDP using a suite of statistical models," Working Papers 11001, South African Reserve Bank.
    401. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    402. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    403. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.

  41. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    2. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    4. Bessec, M., 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    5. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    6. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    10. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    11. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    12. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    13. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    15. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    17. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    18. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    20. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    21. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    22. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 1-22, September.
    23. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
    24. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    25. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    26. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    27. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
    28. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
    29. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    30. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    31. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    33. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    35. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    36. Roman Horvath, 2012. "Do Confidence Indicators Help Predict Economic Activity? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 398-412, November.
    37. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "On the design of data sets for forecasting with dynamic factor models," Working Paper Series 1893, European Central Bank.
    38. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    39. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    40. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    41. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo.
    42. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    43. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    44. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    45. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
    46. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
    47. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    48. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    49. Götz, Thomas B. & Knetsch, Thomas A., 2019. "Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    50. Mishra, Sagarika & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "A nonparametric model of financial system and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 175-191.
    51. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    52. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    53. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    54. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    55. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    56. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Helena Rodríguez, 2014. "Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real," Documentos de trabajo 2014009, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    58. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    59. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    60. Ge, Yiqing & Tang, Ke, 2020. "Commodity prices and GDP growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    61. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    62. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    63. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," ifo Working Paper Series 370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    64. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Marie Bessec, 2010. "Étalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 193(2), pages 77-99.
    66. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    67. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    68. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    69. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    70. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    71. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    72. Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 21-31.
    73. Fokin, Nikita & Polbin, Andrey, 2019. "A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth," MPRA Paper 95306, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
    74. Liebermann, Joëlle, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 74-84, February.
    75. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    76. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    77. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    78. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    79. Zhang, Dandan & Shi, Xunpeng & Sheng, Yu, 2015. "Comprehensive measurement of energy market integration in East Asia: An application of dynamic principal component analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 299-305.
    80. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
    81. Amélie Charles & Chew Lian Chua & Olivier Darné & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks, Real Economic Activity and Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03284089, HAL.
    82. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    83. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    84. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    85. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.
    86. Schumacher, Christian, 2014. "MIDAS and bridge equations," Discussion Papers 26/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    87. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    88. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    89. Mahmut Gunay, 2018. "Nowcasting Annual Turkish GDP Growth with MIDAS," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    90. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    91. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    92. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    93. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    94. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    95. D'Elia, Enrico, 2010. "Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates," MPRA Paper 36070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    97. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    98. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    99. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif, 2020. "Tracking and Predicting the German Economy: ifo vs. PMI," CESifo Working Paper Series 8145, CESifo.
    100. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    101. Takashi Nakazawa, 2022. "Constructing GDP Nowcasting Models Using Alternative Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    102. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    103. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    104. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.
    105. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    106. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    107. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    108. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    109. Maxime Leboeuf & Louis Morel, 2014. "Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions," Discussion Papers 14-3, Bank of Canada.
    110. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    111. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 970, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    112. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    113. Laurent Ferrara & Thomas Raffinot, 2008. "A non-parametric method to nowcast the Euro Area IPI," Post-Print halshs-00275769, HAL.
    114. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    115. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    116. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235, Bank for International Settlements.
    117. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    118. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    119. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    120. Raïsa Basselier & David de Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus,, 2017. "Nowcasting real economic activity in the euro area : Assessing the impact of qualitative surveys," Working Paper Research 331, National Bank of Belgium.
    121. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    122. Kitlinski, Tobias, 2015. "With or without you: Do financial data help to forecast industrial production?," Ruhr Economic Papers 558, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    123. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    124. Dandan ZHANG & Xunpeng SHI & Yu SHENG, 2014. "Enhanced Measurement of Energy Market Integration in East Asia: An Application of Dynamic Principal Component Analysis," Working Papers DP-2014-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    125. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    126. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    127. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    128. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    129. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    130. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    131. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    132. Gálvez-Soriano Oscar de Jesús, 2018. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP using Factor Models and Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018-06, Banco de México.
    133. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    134. Michael Berlemann & Vera Jahn & Robert Lehmann, 2020. "Is the German Mittelstand More Resistant to Crises? Empirical Evidence from the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 8777, CESifo.

  42. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 9884, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Christophe Andre & Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 202309, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    4. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Alessi, Lucia & Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2016. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought," Working Paper Series 1967, European Central Bank.
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Non-Stationary Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 1910.09841, arXiv.org.
    7. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    10. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    11. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A robust criterion for determining the number of static factors in approximate factor models," Working Paper Series 903, European Central Bank.
    12. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    13. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Structural FECM: Cointegration in large-scale structural FAVAR models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2017. "Size Effects of Fiscal Policy and Business Confidence in the Euro Area," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    16. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.
    17. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    18. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues In Adopting Dsge Models For Use In The Policy Process," CAMA Working Papers 2006-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2017. "The effects of US monetary policy shocks: Applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model," Discussion Papers 08/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2019. "Model selection for factor analysis: Some new criteria and performance comparisons," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 577-596, July.
    22. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the Euro area investment fund industry: A structural factor-augmented vector autoregression analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    23. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    24. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    25. Adalgiso Amendola & Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2019. "The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 2019/133, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2014. "Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities. Recovering the Market Volatility Shocks," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    27. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    28. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    29. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    30. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Matteo Luciani & Antoniomaria Conti & Matteo Barigozzi, 2013. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153330, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    33. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    34. Duo Qin, 2006. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries," Working Papers 575, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    35. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    36. Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011. "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 63-81, February.
    37. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    38. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    39. Lippi, Marco & Deistler, Manfred & Anderson, Brian, 2023. "High-Dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: A Selective Survey and Lines of Future Research," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 3-16.
    40. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    41. Luca Di Bonaventura & Mario Forni & Francesco Pattarin, 2018. "The Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Factor Models with Vintage Data," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0070, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    42. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Filippo Pellegrino, 2021. "Factor-augmented tree ensembles," Papers 2111.14000, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    44. Aramonte, Sirio & Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del & Wu, Jason, 2013. "Dynamic factor Value-at-Risk for large heteroskedastic portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4299-4309.
    45. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2015. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 258, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    46. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2011. "Testing for Sufficient Information in Structural VARs," Working Papers 536, Barcelona School of Economics.
    47. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    48. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    49. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    50. Kakeu, Johnson & Bouaddi, Mohammed, 2017. "Empirical evidence of news about future prospects in the risk-pricing of oil assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 458-468.
    51. Paul Beaudry & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2019. "When is Nonfundamentalness in SVARs a Real Problem?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 221-243, October.
    52. Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Tommaso Proietti, 2023. "Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2305.06618, arXiv.org.
    53. ONATSKI, Alexei & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2010. "Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model," Cahiers de recherche 2010-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    54. Gábor Pellényi, 2012. "The Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy in Hungary: A Structural Factor Analysis," MNB Working Papers 2012/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    55. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    56. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    57. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    58. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    59. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    60. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    62. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    63. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    64. Corona, Francisco & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24585, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    65. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    66. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    67. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2017. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Papers 1708.02786, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    68. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    69. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    70. Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Predictability, Real Time Estimation, and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," CEIS Research Paper 455, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Mar 2019.
    71. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    72. Barigozzi, Matteo & Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2018. "Simultaneous multiple change-point and factor analysis for high-dimensional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 187-225.
    73. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    74. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    75. Luca Gambetti, 2014. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," 2014 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    76. Bian, Zhicun & Ma, Jun & Ni, Jinlan & Stewart, Shamar, 2020. "Synchronization of regional growth dynamics in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    77. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    78. Beck, Günter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    79. Nicoletta Batini & Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2021. "Building Back Better: How Big Are Green Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 2021/087, International Monetary Fund.
    80. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Fiscal Foresight and the Effects of Government Spending," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 049, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    81. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2015. "Testing for Fundamental Vector Moving Average Representations," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-022, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    82. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    83. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1007, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    84. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2020. "Common Components Structural VARs," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 147, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    85. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 633, European Central Bank.
    86. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS – A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
    87. Pellényi, Gábor, 2012. "A monetáris politika hatása a magyar gazdaságra. Elemzés strukturális, dinamikus faktormodellel [The sectoral effects of monetary policy in Hungary: a structural factor]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-284.
    88. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    89. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany: a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    90. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    91. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    92. Lof, Matthijs, 2011. "Noncausality and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 30519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    93. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
    94. Daniel A. Dias & João B. Duarte, 2019. "Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 673-687, August.
    95. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    96. Belviso Francesco & Milani Fabio, 2006. "Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-46, December.
    97. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Stefano Soccorsi, 2019. "Time-Varying General Dynamic Factor Models and the Measurement of Financial Connectedness," Working Papers ECARES 2019-09, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    98. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    99. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    100. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    101. AMENDOLA, Adalgiso & DI SERIO, Mario & FRAGETTA, Matteo, 2018. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the Euro Area," CELPE Discussion Papers 153, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    102. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    103. Lippi, Marco & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: Asymptotic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 10618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    104. Mario Forni & Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Stefano Soccorsi, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    105. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    106. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    107. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    108. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2019. "Disinflation and reliability of underlying inflation measures," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps44, Bank of Russia.
    109. Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, Foresight and the Trade Balance in the U.S," Working Papers 505, Barcelona School of Economics.
    110. G. Kapetanios & A. Pagan & A. Scott, 2005. "Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," CAMA Working Papers 2005-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    111. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    112. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    113. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    114. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    115. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    116. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    117. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    118. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    119. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank.
    120. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    121. Gambetti, Luca & De Giorgi, Giacomo, 2014. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 10319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    122. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    123. Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "On the Fundamentalness of Nonfundamentalness in DSGE Models," CSEF Working Papers 340, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    124. Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2021. "The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2021/039, International Monetary Fund.
    125. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    126. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas F. Quising, 2006. "Measuring Regional Market Integration by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach - The Case of Developing Asia," Working Papers 565, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    127. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    128. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George, 2006. "Impulse Response Functions from Structural Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    129. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    130. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    131. Bernd Funovits & Alexander Braumann, 2021. "Identifiability of structural singular vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 431-441, July.
    132. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    133. Gambetti, Luca & Moretti, Laura, 2017. "News, Noise and Oil Price Swings," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    134. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 850.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    135. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Gigante, 2018. "Weakness in Italy�s core inflation and the Phillips curve: the role of labour and financial indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    136. Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across the EU: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Kiel Working Papers 2033, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    137. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2009. "Patterns of co-movement between a developed and emerging market economy: The case of South Africa and Germany," Working Papers 159, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    138. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    139. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    140. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    141. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    142. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    143. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2011. "The general dynamic factor model: One-sided representation results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 23-28, July.
    144. Krampe, J. & Paparoditis, E. & Trenkler, C., 2023. "Structural inference in sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 276-300.
    145. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    146. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities: Estimation and Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-22, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    147. Matteo Barigozzi, 2022. "On Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the Principal Component Analysis," Papers 2211.01921, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    148. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    149. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    150. Fiorelli, Cristiana & Meliciani, Valentina, 2019. "Economic growth in the era of unconventional monetary instruments: A FAVAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    151. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    152. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    153. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2013. "The common component of firm growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 73-82.
    154. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    155. Vítor Castro & Pedro A. Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Is There a Pervasive World Real Credit Cycle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 99-119, February.
    156. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    157. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    158. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2020. "Nowcasting Monthly GDP with Big Data: a Model Averaging Approach," CEIS Research Paper 482, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 May 2020.
    159. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    160. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    161. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq, 2022. "Dimension Reduction for High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models," CEIS Research Paper 534, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2022.
    162. Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco, 2013. "Factor models in high-dimensional time series—A time-domain approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2678-2695.
    163. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    164. Lasse BORK & Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA, 2009. "Identification of macroeconomic factors in large panels," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.18, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    165. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    166. Andrew S. Duncan & Alain Kabundi, 2014. "Global Financial Crises and Time-Varying Volatility Comovement in World Equity Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 531-550, December.
    167. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Yen, Tso-Jung & Yen, Yu-Min, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using approximate factor models with outliers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 267-291.
    168. Jiti Gao & Guangming Pan & Yanrong Yang & Bo Zhang, 2019. "Estimation of Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Papers 1904.06843, arXiv.org.
    169. Francesca Marino, 2013. "Regional fluctuations and national cohesion in the EU12: a pre-Maastricht assessment," SERIES 0048, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Aug 2013.
    170. Philipp Gersing & Christoph Rust & Manfred Deistler, 2023. "Weak Factors are Everywhere," Papers 2307.10067, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    171. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2011. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 062, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    172. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Generalized dynamic factor models and volatilities: Consistency, rates, and prediction intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 4-34.
    173. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    174. Cipollini, Andrea & Missaglia, Giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    175. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
    176. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    177. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2022. "Local Projection Inference in High Dimensions," Papers 2209.03218, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    178. Alessandro Giovannelli & Tommaso Proietti & Ambra Citton & Ottavio Ricchi & Cristian Tegami & Cristina Tinti, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP and its Components in a Data-rich Environment: the Merits of the Indirect Approach," CEIS Research Paper 489, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 May 2020.
    179. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    180. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    181. Han, Xu, 2018. "Estimation and inference of dynamic structural factor models with over-identifying restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 125-147.
    182. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2007. "Automatic Leading Indicators (ALIs) versus Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs): Comparison of Inflation and GDP growth Forecasting," EcoMod2007 23900072, EcoMod.
    183. Chen, Liang, 2012. "Identifying observed factors in approximate factor models: estimation and hypothesis testing," MPRA Paper 37514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    184. Acconcia, Antonio & Simonelli, Saverio, 2008. "Interpreting aggregate fluctuations looking at sectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 3009-3031, September.
    185. Yang, Lu, 2022. "Idiosyncratic information spillover and connectedness network between the electricity and carbon markets in Europe," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    186. Anderson, Brian D.O. & Deistler, Manfred & Felsenstein, Elisabeth & Koelbl, Lukas, 2016. "The structure of multivariate AR and ARMA systems: Regular and singular systems; the single and the mixed frequency case," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 366-373.
    187. Daniele Siena, 2017. "What's News in International Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1206, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    188. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2007. "Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 8, Asian Development Bank.
    189. Matteo Barigozzi & Filippo Pellegrino, 2023. "Multidimensional dynamic factor models," Papers 2301.12499, arXiv.org.
    190. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "Nonfundamental Representations of the Relation between Technology Shocks and Hours Worked," LEM Papers Series 2008/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    191. In Choi & Dukpa Kim & Yun Jung Kim & Noh‐Sun Kwark, 2018. "A multilevel factor model: Identification, asymptotic theory and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 355-377, April.
    192. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    193. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
    194. Thorsten Dickhaus, 2012. "Simultaneous Statistical Inference in Dynamic Factor Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-033, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    195. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 384-399.
    196. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    197. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    198. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    199. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    200. In Choi, 2011. "Efficient Estimation of Nonstationary Factor Models," Working Papers 1101, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Jun 2011.
    201. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    202. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    203. Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mitov, Ivan K., 2016. "A new approach to statistical arbitrage: Strategies based on dynamic factor models of prices and their performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-155.
    204. Rachida Ouysse, 2017. "Constrained principal components estimation of large approximate factor models," Discussion Papers 2017-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    205. F. Della Marra, 2017. "A forecasting performance comparison of dynamic factor models based on static and dynamic methods," Economics Department Working Papers 2017-ME01, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    206. Chadi S. Abdallah & William D. Lastrapes, 2013. "Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 559-590, June.
    207. Hanisch, Max & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 70-88.
    208. Bastian Gribisch, 2018. "A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 621-651, September.
    209. Tatjana Dahlhaus, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 14-21, Bank of Canada.
    210. Dolado, Juan J & Charnavoki, Valery, 2012. "The effects of global shocks on small commodity-exporting economies: New evidence from Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 8825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    211. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    212. Xu Zhang & Xian Yang & Jianping Li & Jun Hao, 2023. "Contemporaneous and noncontemporaneous idiosyncratic risk spillovers in commodity futures markets: A novel network topology approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 705-733, June.
    213. Demir, Ishak, 2019. "International Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," EconStor Preprints 193968, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    214. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Alain N. Kabundi & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2009. "Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.
    215. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    216. Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
    217. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    218. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    219. Matteo Barigozzi & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Graziano Moramarco, 2022. "Factor Network Autoregressions," Papers 2208.02925, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    220. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Darjus Hosszejni & Hedibert Freitas Lopes, 2023. "When it counts -- Econometric identification of the basic factor model based on GLT structures," Papers 2301.06354, arXiv.org.
    221. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    222. Hanisch, Max, 2017. "The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 110-134.
    223. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Textos para discussão 521, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    224. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    225. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Does information help recovering fundamental structural shocks from past observations?," Macroeconomics 0511017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    226. Marie-Louise Djigbenou, 2014. "Determinants of Global Liquidity Dynamics:a FAVAR approach," Working Papers hal-00956314, HAL.
    227. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    228. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Business Cycle on Firm-Level Data," LEM Papers Series 2006/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    229. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Post-Print halshs-00423871, HAL.
    230. Giacomo De Giorgi & Luca Gambetti, 2012. "Consumption Heterogenity Over the Business Cycle," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 904.12, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    231. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "A Dynamic Factor Model for World Trade Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 874, OECD Publishing.
    232. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News is Good News)," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    233. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.
    234. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    235. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    236. Antonio Acconcia & Saverio Simonelli, 2005. "Revisiting the one type permanent shocks hypothesis: Aggregate fluctuations in a multi-sector economy," CSEF Working Papers 137, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Sep 2006.
    237. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    238. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2014. "Latin American Performance to External Shocks: What Has Really Been Sweat?," MPRA Paper 57816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    239. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    240. Jiti Gao & Guangming Pan & Yanrong Yang & Bo Zhang, 2019. "An Integrated Panel Data Approach to Modelling Economic Growth," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    241. Alain Kabundi & Andrew S. Duncan, 2011. "Global Financial Crises and Time-varying Volatility Comovement in World Equity Markets," Working Papers 253, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    242. Bernd Funovits & Alexander Braumann, 2019. "Identifiability of Structural Singular Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 1910.04096, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    243. Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area and a Comparison with the US," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 338, Society for Computational Economics.
    244. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    245. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    246. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "The Vector Error Correction Index Model: Representation, Estimation and Identification," CEIS Research Paper 556, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Apr 2023.
    247. Nektarios Michail & Christos Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2018. "Effects of fiscal consolidation on business confidence in the Euro Area," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 76-83.
    248. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    249. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    250. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    251. Takumah, Wisdom, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices in a Dynamic Factor Model with Cointegrated Factors," MPRA Paper 117897, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jul 2023.

  43. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Did the Euro imply more correlation of cycles?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13394, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
    2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    3. Bergin, Paul R. & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2016. "International portfolio diversification and multilateral effects of correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 52-71.
    4. Bogdan Murarasu & Alina Bobasu, 2014. "Output Spillovers from Trade and Financial Linkages in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Panel Analysis," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(2), pages 081-096, December.
    5. Perri, Fabrizio & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias, 2012. "Global Banks and Crisis Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 9044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, 2014. "Spillovers to emerging markets during global financial crisis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 17(2), pages 26-47, August.
    8. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    9. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  44. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.

    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Voigt, Stefan, 2017. "Large-scale portfolio allocation under transaction costs and model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 582, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Serge Darolles & Christian Gouriéroux & Emmanuelle Jay, 2012. "Robust Portfolio Allocation with Systematic Risk Contribution Restrictions," Working Papers 2012-35, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    3. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Asset allocation strategies based on penalized quantile regression," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
    5. Gianbiagio Curato & Jim Gatheral & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "Optimal execution with nonlinear transient market impact," Papers 1412.4839, arXiv.org.
    6. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2017. "Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2017/108, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Paulo Ferreira Naibert & João F. Caldeira, 2016. "Seleção De Carteiras Com Restrição Das Normas Das Posições: Uma Comparação Empírica Entre Diferentes Níveis De Restrição De Exposição Para Dados Da Bm&Fbovespa," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 132, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
    9. Akiko Takeda & Mahesan Niranjan & Jun-ya Gotoh & Yoshinobu Kawahara, 2013. "Simultaneous pursuit of out-of-sample performance and sparsity in index tracking portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 21-49, February.
    10. B. Fastrich & S. Paterlini & P. Winker, 2015. "Constructing optimal sparse portfolios using regularization methods," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 417-434, July.
    11. Björn Fastrich & Peter Winker, 2014. "Combining Forecasts with Missing Data: Making Use of Portfolio Theory," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 127-152, August.
    12. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2013. "Portfolio selection with skewness: A comparison of methods and a generalized one fund result," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 412-421.
    13. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Xiaofeng Shi, 2013. "Risks of Large Portfolios," Papers 1302.0926, arXiv.org.
    14. Ignace Loris & Caroline Verhoeven, 2013. "An iterative algorithm for sparse and constrained recovery with applications to divergence-free current reconstructions in magneto-encephalography," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 399-416, March.
    15. Yu-Min Yen, 2010. "A Note on Sparse Minimum Variance Portfolios and Coordinate-Wise Descent Algorithms," Papers 1005.5082, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    16. Margherita Giuzio & Kay Eichhorn-Schott & Sandra Paterlini & Vincent Weber, 2018. "Tracking hedge funds returns using sparse clones," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 349-371, July.
    17. Maillet, Bertrand & Tokpavi, Sessi & Vaucher, Benoit, 2015. "Global minimum variance portfolio optimisation under some model risk: A robust regression-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 289-299.
    18. Richard K. Crump & Miro Everaert & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Staff Reports 850, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Bjoern Fastrich & Sandra Paterlini & Peter Winker, 2011. "Cardinality versus q-Norm Constraints for Index Tracking," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 056, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    20. Jun-ya Gotoh & Akiko Takeda, 2011. "On the role of norm constraints in portfolio selection," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 323-353, November.
    21. Gianbiagio Curato & Jim Gatheral & Fabrizio Lillo, 2017. "Optimal execution with non-linear transient market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 41-54, January.
    22. Oleksandr Romanko & Helmut Mausser, 2016. "Robust scenario-based value-at-risk optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 237(1), pages 203-218, February.
    23. Yu Zheng & Timothy M. Hospedales & Yongxin Yang, 2018. "Diversity and Sparsity: A New Perspective on Index Tracking," Papers 1809.01989, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    24. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Aaron J Molstad & Adam J Rothman, 2018. "Shrinking characteristics of precision matrix estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(3), pages 563-574.
    26. Mohammed Bouaddi & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2012. "Portfolio risk management in a data-rich environment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(4), pages 469-494, December.
    27. C. Gourieroux & A. Monfort, 2013. "Granularity Adjustment for Efficient Portfolios," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 449-468, December.
    28. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2011. "Portfolio Selection with Skewness: A Comparison and a Generalized Two Fund Separation Result," Working Papers 2011/09, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    29. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    30. Jun-ya Gotoh & Akiko Takeda & Rei Yamamoto, 2014. "Interaction between financial risk measures and machine learning methods," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 365-402, October.
    31. Zhenning Hong & Ruyan Tian & Qing Yang & Weiliang Yao & Tingting Ye & Liangliang Zhang, 2021. "Asset Allocation via Machine Learning," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, November.
    32. Mian Huang & Shangbing Yu & Weixin Yao, 2022. "Regularized Factor Portfolio for Cross-sectional Multifactor Models," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(2), pages 427-449, August.
    33. Jianqing Fan & Jingjin Zhang & Ke Yu, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Risk Assessment with Gross Exposure Constraints for Vast Portfolios," Papers 0812.2604, arXiv.org.
    34. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles, 2018. "Socially responsible investment portfolios: Does the optimization process matter?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 379-401.
    35. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 2371, CESifo.
    36. Yen, Yu-Min & Yen, Tso-Jung, 2014. "Solving norm constrained portfolio optimization via coordinate-wise descent algorithms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 737-759.
    37. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 384-399.
    38. Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor & Matteo Marsili & Susanne Still, 2014. "$L_p$ regularized portfolio optimization," Papers 1404.4040, arXiv.org.
    39. Philipp J. Kremer & Sangkyun Lee & Malgorzata Bogdan & Sandra Paterlini, 2017. "Sparse Portfolio Selection via the sorted $\ell_{1}$-Norm," Papers 1710.02435, arXiv.org.
    40. Philipp J. Kremer & Andreea Talmaciu & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Risk minimization in multi-factor portfolios: What is the best strategy?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 255-291, July.
    41. Daniel Kinn, 2018. "Reducing Estimation Risk in Mean-Variance Portfolios with Machine Learning," Papers 1804.01764, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    42. Carlos Castro, 2010. "Portfolio choice under local industry and country factors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(4), pages 353-393, December.
    43. Enzo Busseti & Fabrizio Lillo, 2012. "Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact," Papers 1206.0682, arXiv.org.
    44. Imre Kondor & G'abor Papp & Fabio Caccioli, 2017. "Analytic approach to variance optimization under an $\ell_1$ constraint," Papers 1709.08755, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    45. Caihua Chen & Xindan Li & Caleb Tolman & Suyang Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2013. "Sparse Portfolio Selection via Quasi-Norm Regularization," Papers 1312.6350, arXiv.org.
    46. Imre Kondor, 2014. "Estimation Error of Expected Shortfall," Papers 1402.5534, arXiv.org.

  45. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2016. "Dynamic Predictive Density Combinations for Large Data Sets in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-084/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jul 2017.
    2. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo.
    3. Alain Hecq & Luca Margaritella & Stephan Smeekes, 2019. "Granger Causality Testing in High-Dimensional VARs: a Post-Double-Selection Procedure," Papers 1902.10991, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, 2017. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates : Comment," EMF Research Papers 15, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    8. Olga Korotkikh, 2020. "A Multi-Country BVAR Model for the External Sector," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 98-112, December.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid, 2013. "Macroeconomic surprises and stock returns in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 266-282, July.
    10. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    11. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    12. Campolieti, Michele & Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary, 2014. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry, provincial, national and external factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-275.
    13. Boris Blagov & Michael Funke & Richhild Moessner, 2015. "Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads," BIS Working Papers 526, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "State Dependence In Labor Market Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1027-1072, August.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR using over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201589, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
    17. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.
    18. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Methodologies in Nowcasting," Papers 2205.03318, arXiv.org.
    19. Miniaci Raffaele & Panteghini Paolo M. & Rivolta Giulia, 2022. "The estimation of reaction functions under tax competition," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 301-339, May.
    20. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.
    21. Christian Grimme, 2023. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank versus Bond Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 143-169, February.
    22. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    23. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    24. Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "Var Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 204-230, March.
    25. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    26. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    27. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    28. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Vasilios Plakandaras & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "The role of housing sentiment in forecasting U.S. home sales growth: evidence from a Bayesian compressed vector autoregressive model," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2554-2567, January.
    29. Gian Paulo Soave, 2023. "A panel threshold VAR with stochastic volatility-in-mean model: an application to the effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 397-431, January.
    30. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    31. Scheufele, Rolf & Bäurle, Gregor, 2015. "Credit cycles and real activity - the Swiss case," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112931, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    32. Haroon Mumtaz & Ahmed Pirzada & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Non-linear effects of oil shocks on stock prices," Working Papers 865, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Masud Alam, 2021. "Heterogeneous Responses to the U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: Evidence from the U.S. States," Papers 2107.13678, arXiv.org.
    34. Mehmet Balcilar & NICO KATZKE & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 15-05, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    35. Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014. "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
    36. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 435-471, December.
    37. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    38. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    39. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
    41. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    42. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    43. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2020. "Monetary policy and wealth inequality over the great recession in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    44. Gregor Kastner, 2016. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Papers 1608.08468, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    45. Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "Government purchases reloaded: Informational insufficiency and heterogeneity in fiscal VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 13-27.
    46. Romero, José Vicente & Vargas, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Murcia, Andrés, 2021. "How foreign participation in the Colombian local public debt market has influenced domestic financial conditions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    47. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    48. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    49. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2024. "Sectoral slowdowns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 22-40, January.
    50. Wang, Gang-Jin & Chen, Yang-Yang & Si, Hui-Bin & Xie, Chi & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Multilayer information spillover networks analysis of China’s financial institutions based on variance decompositions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 325-347.
    51. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2014. "Fat-tails in VAR Models," Working Papers 714, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    52. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
    53. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    54. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    55. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    56. Huber, Florian & Fischer, Manfred M., 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 201, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    57. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
    58. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    59. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2020. "Bayesian state space models in macroeconometrics," CAMA Working Papers 2020-90, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    60. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    61. Sergey Vlasov & Elena Deryugina, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps28, Bank of Russia.
    62. Pietro Cova & Filippo Natoli, 2017. "International financial flows and the risk-taking channel," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_005, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    63. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    64. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2020. "Macroeconomic Data Transformations Matter," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-42, CIRANO.
    65. Vargas-Herrera, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Romero, Jose Vicente & Murcia, Andrés, 2020. "Effects of foreign participation in the colombian local public debt market on domestic financial conditions," Working papers 44, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    66. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    67. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    68. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    69. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    70. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    71. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    72. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    73. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    74. Christian Grimme, 2019. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 7456, CESifo.
    75. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    76. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    77. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    78. Battulga Gankhuu, 2023. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return," Papers 2305.19708, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    79. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    80. Hadjiantoni, Stella & Kontoghiorghes, Erricos John, 2022. "An alternative numerical method for estimating large-scale time-varying parameter seemingly unrelated regressions models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-18.
    81. Ostapenko, Nataliia, 2020. "Central Bank Communication: Information and Policy shocks," MPRA Paper 104501, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2020.
    82. Anastasios Evgenidis & Masashige Hamano & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2021. "Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers 2111, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    83. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotze & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2022. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2022-03, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    84. Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2021. "Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2107.07804, arXiv.org.
    85. Koop, G & Korobilis, D, 2018. "Forecasting with High-Dimensional Panel VARs," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 21329, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    86. Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2022. "Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 60-98, April.
    87. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    88. Lai, Wei-Ting & Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten, 2022. "Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    89. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    90. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    91. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann & Sylvia Kaufmann & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Working Papers 16.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    92. Haroon Mumtaz & Alexandra Solovyeva & Elena Vasilieva, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the Russian economy," Joint Research Papers 1, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    93. Alex Bara & Pierre Le Roux, 2017. "South Africa's Financial Spillover Effects on Growth and Financial Development in the Southern African Development Community," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 400-412.
    94. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    95. Bonciani, Dario & van Roye, Björn, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Working Paper Series 1825, European Central Bank.
    96. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    97. Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
    98. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2022. "An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
    99. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
    100. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
    101. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    102. Liu, Philip & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2010. "DSGE model restrictions for structural VAR identification," Bank of England working papers 402, Bank of England.
    103. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Monetary policy reaction function pre and post the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 84866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    104. Huber, Florian, 2016. "Density forecasting using Bayesian global vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 818-837.
    105. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    106. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    107. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    108. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Forecasting UK GDP growth and inflation under structural change. A comparison of models with time-varying parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 129-143.
    109. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    110. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
    111. Joshua C. C. Chan & Liana Jacobi & Dan Zhu, 2020. "Efficient selection of hyperparameters in large Bayesian VARs using automatic differentiation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 934-943, September.
    112. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    113. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl & Ute Volz, 2022. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a Large Multicountry BVAR Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 627-649, March.
    114. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Models," CReMFi Discussion Papers 3, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    115. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    116. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2017. "Granger Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 319-329, May.
    117. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    118. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    119. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    120. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    121. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    122. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    123. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper series 47_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    124. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Bayesian VARs: specification choices and forecast accuracy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1112, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    125. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    126. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    127. Pinshi, Christian P., 2020. "Monetary policy, uncertainty and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2020.
    128. Ching-Wai Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "VAR Models with Non-Gaussian Shocks," Discussion Papers 1609, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    129. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stelios D. Bekiros, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations," Working Papers 201701, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    130. Anders Warne & Günter Coenen & Kai Christoffel, 2017. "Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State‐Space Models with Applications to DSGE, DSGE‐VAR, and VAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 103-119, January.
    131. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    132. Gunes Kamber & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2014. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," CAMA Working Papers 2014-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    133. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    134. Tang, Edward Chi Ho & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Does an Oligopolistic Primary Market Matter? The Case of an Asian Housing Market," MPRA Paper 93680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    135. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    136. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2021. "Forecasting Russian Cpi With Data Vintages And Machine Learning Techniques," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps70, Bank of Russia.
    137. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 10930, CESifo.
    138. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    139. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    140. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
    141. Gábor Pintér, 2019. "House Prices and Job Losses," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 991-1013.
    142. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    143. Khaled Guesmi & Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI & Ahmed Atil & Imen Haouet, 2016. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Financial Variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2261-2274.
    144. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2017. "Monetary policy and balance sheets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 169-184.
    145. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    146. Graziano Moramarco, 2021. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," Papers 2111.00822, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    147. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    148. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    149. Joshua C.C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2020. "Fast and accurate variational inference for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2020-108, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    150. Pintor, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    151. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    152. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
    153. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Papers 1608.02740, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    154. Francesco Zanetti & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "News and Labor Market Dynamics in the Data and in Matching Models," Economics Series Working Papers 699, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    155. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zanetti, Francesco, 2012. "Neutral technology shocks and employment dynamics: results based on an RBC identification scheme," Bank of England working papers 453, Bank of England.
    156. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    157. Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    158. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    159. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "Large time-varying parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1122, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    160. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    161. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Working Papers 02/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    162. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2020. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector auto‐regressive model with entropic tilting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 91-119, January.
    163. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    164. Beckmann, J & Koop, G & Korobilis, D & Schüssler, R, 2017. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20781, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    165. Louzis Dimitrios P., 2016. "Steady-state priors and Bayesian variable selection in VAR forecasting," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 495-527, December.
    166. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-07, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    167. Maciej Stefański, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing Using Mid-sized Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," KAE Working Papers 2021-068, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    168. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "The Federal Reserve s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    169. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    170. Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    171. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    172. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    173. Garcia, Márcio G.P. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2017. "Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 679-693.
    174. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    175. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    176. Kabukçuoğlu, Ayşe & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2018. "Inflation as a global phenomenon—Some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 46-73.
    177. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    178. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    179. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    180. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    181. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    182. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    183. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
    184. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    185. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    186. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    187. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    188. Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Weakness of investment in Portugal: what role do credit supply and fiscal consolidation shocks play?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 19-45, February.
    189. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    190. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Options Pricing under Bayesian MS-VAR Process," Papers 2109.05998, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    191. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    192. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    193. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    194. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2014. "Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 229-264, June.
    195. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    196. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    197. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    198. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    199. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    200. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    201. Sebastian Ankargren & Mårten Bjellerup & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2017. "The importance of the financial system for the real economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1553-1586, December.
    202. Cova, Pietro & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "The risk-taking channel of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    203. Kwon, Hyuck-Shin & Bang, Doo Won & Kim, Myeong Hyeon, 2017. "Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 39(3), pages 43-62.
    204. Demeshev, Boris & Malakhovskaya, Oxana, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
    205. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2020. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters: With Applications to Time-Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 124-136, January.
    206. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2017. "The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network," Globalization Institute Working Papers 313, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    207. Gary Koop, 2011. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 1117, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    208. Flavia Corneli & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Macroeconomic news, the financial cycle and the commodity cycle: the Chinese footprint," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 772, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    209. Valeriu Nalban, 2016. "Sentiment-Driven Asymmetries in Romanian Monetary Policy Transmission," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 251-270, May.
    210. Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2017. "International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty: A FAVAR approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 689, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    211. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    212. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2018. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1240, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    213. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    214. Aleksandra Nocoń, 2020. "Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    215. Zachary F. Fisher & Younghoon Kim & Barbara L. Fredrickson & Vladas Pipiras, 2022. "Penalized Estimation and Forecasting of Multiple Subject Intensive Longitudinal Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 1-29, June.
    216. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Reducing Dimensions in a Large TVP-VAR," Working Paper series 18-37, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    217. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    218. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    219. Christian Grimme & Marc Stöckli, 2017. "Macoeconomic Uncertainty in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 41-50, March.
    220. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    221. Jan Prüser, 2021. "Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 481-499, April.
    222. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality in the Euro Area?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 35-80, February.
    223. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    224. Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2023. "The effects of shocks to interest rate expectations in the euro area: Estimates at the country level," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 643-656, April.
    225. Maurin, Laurent & Andersson, Malin & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," EIB Working Papers 2021/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    226. Jamie Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2019. "New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets," CAMA Working Papers 2019-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    227. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    228. Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Forecasting using variational Bayesian inference in large vector autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 346-363.
    229. Nguyen, Bao & Sum, Dek, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Balance Adjustments in Papua New Guinea," MPRA Paper 93033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    230. Paolo Andreini & Donato Ceci, 2019. "A Horse Race in High Dimensional Space," CEIS Research Paper 452, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Feb 2019.
    231. Stefano Neri & Tiziano Ropele, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1007, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    232. George J. Bratsiotis & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2020. "Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2014, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    233. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    234. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-46, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    235. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    236. Anna Sznajderska & Alfred A. Haug, 2023. "Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 211-236, June.
    237. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    238. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    239. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    240. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," MPRA Paper 100184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    241. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers 759, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    242. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2019-61, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    243. Elton Beqiraj & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2014. "Evaluating Labor Market Targeted Fiscal Policies inHigh Unemployment EZ Countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 165, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    244. Doo Won Bang & HyuckShin Kwon, 2022. "Policy Impact Analysis of Housing Policies Using Housing Cycles," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    245. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    246. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2754-2776.
    247. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession," Papers 2007.15419, arXiv.org.
    248. Pellényi, Gábor, 2012. "A monetáris politika hatása a magyar gazdaságra. Elemzés strukturális, dinamikus faktormodellel [The sectoral effects of monetary policy in Hungary: a structural factor]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-284.
    249. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    250. Marco Scutari, 2020. "Bayesian network models for incomplete and dynamic data," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 74(3), pages 397-419, August.
    251. Michele Piffer, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Defaults in the US," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1559, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    252. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    253. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    254. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    255. García, Javier Sánchez & Rambaud, Salvador Cruz, 2023. "Macrofinancial determinants of volatility transmission in a network of European sovereign debt markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    256. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    257. Giorgio Primiceri & Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Francisco Buera, 2008. "Learning the Wealth of Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    258. Florian Huber & Thomas Zörner, 2017. "Threshold cointegration and adaptive shrinkage," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp250, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    259. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Mampho Modise, 2010. "Has the SARB become more effective post inflation targeting?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 187-204, August.
    260. Hovick Shahnazarian & Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2017. "Forecasting and Analysing Corporate Tax Revenues in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 50-74, Autumn.
    261. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2018. "Composite Likelihood Methods for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series 44, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    262. Florian Huber, 2014. "Density Forecasting using Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Common Stochastic Volatility," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp179, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    263. Feldkircher, Martin & Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2019. "Global Factors Driving Inflation and Monetary Policy: A Global VAR Assessment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 289, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    264. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    265. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    266. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    267. Roy, Ripon & Bashar, Omar H.N.M. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2023. "The cross-industry effects of monetary policy: New evidence from Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    268. Zhang, Bo & Nguyen, Bao H., 2020. "Real-time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2020-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    269. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2015. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Discussion Papers 45/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    270. Florian Huber & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p25, European Regional Science Association.
    271. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    272. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Financial Stress and Their Non-Linear Impact on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2014/07, Czech National Bank.
    273. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    274. de Menezes Barboza, Ricardo & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2019. "Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 223-236.
    275. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures," Working Papers 22-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 30 May 2023.
    276. Zeyyad Mandalinci & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1713-1730, September.
    277. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    278. Carlo Pizzinelli & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Francesco Zanetti, 2018. "State Dependence in Labor Market Fluctuations: Evidence,Theory, and Policy Implications," BCAM Working Papers 1801, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    279. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    280. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects Of Reserve Requirements," EcoMod2012 3850, EcoMod.
    281. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    282. Joshua C. C. Chan & Gary Koop & Xuewen Yu, 2021. "Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2111.07225, arXiv.org.
    283. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
    284. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    285. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Leichte Belebung der internationalen Konjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(1), pages 5-32.
    286. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "Прогнозування розвитку економіки України на основі баєсівських авторегресійних (BVAR) моделей з різними priors [Forecasting Economic Development of Ukraine based on BVAR models with different prior," MPRA Paper 44725, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2012.
    287. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-09, CIRANO.
    288. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    289. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    290. Paul Ho, 2020. "Global Robust Bayesian Analysis in Large Models," Working Paper 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    291. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    292. Simon Beyeler & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2021. "Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 989-1012, November.
    293. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    294. Mumtaz, Haroon & Musso, Alberto, 2018. "The evolving impact of global, region-specific and country-specific uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2147, European Central Bank.
    295. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Aubrey Poon, 2019. "Variational Bayesian inference in large Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical shrinkage," CAMA Working Papers 2019-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    296. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    297. Jan Frait & Simona Malovana & Vladimir Tomsik, 2015. "The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in the Pursuit of the Central Bank's Primary Objectives," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2014/2015, chapter 0, pages 110-120, Czech National Bank.
    298. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    299. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    300. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    301. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann & Rossen Valkanov, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," Working Papers 57, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    302. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
    303. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    304. Marek Rusnák & Tomáš Havránek & Roman Horváth, 2011. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2011/24, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2011.
    305. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    306. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    307. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    308. Tino Berger & Julia Richter & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Financial factors and the business cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2020-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    309. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
    310. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
    311. Dimitris Korobilis, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Econometrics, pages 403-431, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    312. Joshua Chan & Arnaud Doucet & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2018. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility with Co-Heteroscedasticity," GRIPS Discussion Papers 18-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    313. Mihaela Simionescu, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment and Sustainable Development. A Regional Approach for Romania," Working Papers of Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar 162702, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    314. Christophe Croux & Peter Exterkate, 2011. "Sparse and Robust Factor Modelling," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-122/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    315. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    316. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    317. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Mike & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: the impact of the United Kingdom's QE2 and Funding for Lending Scheme," Bank of England working papers 542, Bank of England.
    318. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    319. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," Bank of England working papers 657, Bank of England.
    320. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2020. "Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia," Working Papers 2020/01, Latvijas Banka.
    321. Chenghan Hou & Bao Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2023. "Real‐time forecasting of the Australian macroeconomy using flexible Bayesian VARs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 418-451, March.
    322. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    323. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    324. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    325. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    326. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    327. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    328. Meri Papavangjeli, 2019. "Forecasting the Albanian short-term inflation through a Bayesian VAR model," IHEID Working Papers 16-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 09 Oct 2019.
    329. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Rozhkova & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "Macro-financial linkages: the role of liquidity dependence," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps24, Bank of Russia.
    330. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    331. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    332. Gian Paulo Soave, 2020. "International Drivers of Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 716-726.
    333. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2012. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2012/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2012.
    334. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral employment dynamics in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2020-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    335. Bäurle Gregor & Kaufmann Daniel & Kaufmann Sylvia & Strachan Rodney, 2020. "Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
    336. Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "The Role of Oil Prices in the Forecasts of South African Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-01, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    337. Nguyen, BH & Zhang, Bo, 2022. "Forecasting oil Prices: can large BVARs help?," Working Papers 2022-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    338. Luca Sala, 2013. "DSGE models in the frequency domain," Working Papers 504, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    339. Annika Schnücker, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1612, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    340. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    341. Alain KABUNDI & Rangan GUPTA, 2009. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) Approach," EcoMod2009 21500048, EcoMod.
    342. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    343. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber , Florian, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Working Papers 0590, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    344. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "US financial shocks and the distribution of income and consumption in the UK," Working Papers 845, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    345. Chris Redl, 2015. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    346. Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/08, European University Institute.
    347. Turunen Harry & Zhutova Anastasia & Lemoine Matthieu, 2023. "Stochastic Simulation of the FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Uncertainty around Conditional Forecasts," Working papers 920, Banque de France.
    348. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    349. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    350. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 903, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    351. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    352. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    353. Sa, Filipa & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2010. "Monetary policy, capital inflows and the housing boom," Bank of England working papers 405, Bank of England.
    354. Li, Qiang & Nong, Huifu, 2022. "A closer look at Chinese housing market: Measuring intra-city submarket connectedness in Shanghai and Guangzhou," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    355. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    356. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2011/218, International Monetary Fund.
    357. Beqiraj, Elton & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2023. "Subsidizing new jobs in the Euro-zone periphery," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 380-401.
    358. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
    359. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    360. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Augmented Dynamic Gordon Growth Model," Papers 2201.06012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    361. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201543, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    362. Oskar Gustafsson & Mattias Villani & Pär Stockhammar, 2023. "Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters from noisy marginal likelihood estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 577-595, June.
    363. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    364. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    365. Jürgen Antony & D. Broer, 2015. "Euro area financial shocks and economic activity in The Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 571-595, August.
    366. Niels Gilbert & Sebastiaan Pool, 2020. "Sectoral allocation and macroeconomic imbalances in EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 945-984, November.
    367. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    368. Andersson, Malin & Maurin, Laurent & Rusinova, Desislava, 2021. "Market finance as a spare tyre? Corporate investment and access to bank credit in Europe," Working Paper Series 2606, European Central Bank.
    369. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    370. Bokun, Kathryn O. & Jackson, Laura E. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2023. "FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 279-297.
    371. Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregessions," Working Papers 115, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    372. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non standard Monetary Policy measures and monetary developments," Working Papers ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    373. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Working Paper Series 1868, European Central Bank.
    374. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    375. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    376. Francis Neville & Owyang Michael T. & Sekhposyan Tatevik, 2012. "The Local Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    377. Huseynov, Salman & Ahmadov, Vugar & Adigozalov, Shaig, 2014. "Beating a Random Walk: “Hard Times” for Forecasting Inflation in Post-Oil Boom Years?," MPRA Paper 63515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    378. Maya Jalloul & Mirela Miescu, 2021. "Equity Market Connectedness across Regimes of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 324219805, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    379. Pinter, Gabor, 2016. "The macroeconomic shock with the highest price of risk," Bank of England working papers 616, Bank of England.
    380. Martin Iseringhausen & Ivan Petrella & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Aggregate skewness and the business cycle," Working Papers 53, European Stability Mechanism.
    381. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C. C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2016. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1638-1665, December.
    382. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    383. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    384. Dison, Will & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
    385. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2014. "Theory-coherent forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 145-155.
    386. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Working Papers 617, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    387. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2017. "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 66-78, March.
    388. Angela Capolongo & Claudia Pacella, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area: countries matter!," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1224, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    389. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
    390. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    391. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    392. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
    393. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    394. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro, 2023. "The motifs of risk transmission in multivariate time series: Application to commodity prices," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    395. Petrova, Katerina, 2022. "Asymptotically valid Bayesian inference in the presence of distributional misspecification in VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 154-182.
    396. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    397. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    398. Song Song & Peter J. Bickel, 2011. "Large Vector Auto Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    399. Thomai Filippeli & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "DSGE priors for BVAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 627-656, March.
    400. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    401. Fady Barsoum, 2015. "Point and Density Forecasts Using an Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-19, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    402. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    403. Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2021. "A Bayesian Dynamic Compositional Model for Large Density Combinations in Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    404. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    405. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    406. Wang, Dieter & Andrée, Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro, Andres Fernando & Spencer, Phoebe Girouard, 2022. "Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    407. Blagov, Boris & Funke, Michael, 2014. "The credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system: Looking through the prism of MS-VAR models with time-varying transition probabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    408. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    409. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2019. "Direct and Network Effects of Idiosyncratic TFP Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 65, Bank of Lithuania.
    410. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    411. Tomasz Wozniak, 2016. "Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2021, The University of Melbourne.
    412. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2009. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    413. Franz Ramsauer & Aleksey Min & Michael Lingauer, 2019. "Estimation of FAVAR Models for Incomplete Data with a Kalman Filter for Factors with Observable Components," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-43, July.
    414. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    415. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    416. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    417. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    418. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    419. Kemisola Christianah Osundina & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Bolaji A. Adesoye, 2018. "Interest Rate Channel and Real Economy in Nigeria: A Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 313-321.
    420. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    421. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    422. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    423. Joshua C.C. Chan, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARs: A flexible Kronecker error covariance structure," CAMA Working Papers 2015-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    424. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    425. Ahlem DAHEM, 2016. "Short-Term Bayesian Inflation Forecasting For Tunisia: Some Empirical Evidence," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, January.
    426. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    427. Krampe, J. & Paparoditis, E. & Trenkler, C., 2023. "Structural inference in sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 276-300.
    428. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    429. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    430. Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Estimating Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR Models," Papers 1912.02231, arXiv.org.
    431. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    432. Christian Grimme, 2017. "Measurement of Corporate Uncertainty in Germany – the ifo Dispersion Measure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 19-25, August.
    433. Ian Borg & Germano Ruisi, 2018. "Forecasting using Bayesian VARs: A Benchmark for STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    434. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    435. Liao Zhu & Haoxuan Wu & Martin T. Wells, 2021. "A News-based Machine Learning Model for Adaptive Asset Pricing," Papers 2106.07103, arXiv.org.
    436. Prüser, Jan, 2023. "Data-based priors for vector error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 209-227.
    437. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    438. Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2017. "An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Multiple Structural Change in Multivariate Time Series," MPRA Paper 79211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    439. Roberto Casarin & Fausto Corradin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Domenico Sartore, 2018. "A scoring rule for factor and autoregressive models under misspecification," Working Papers 2018:18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    440. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
    441. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2019-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    442. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    443. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    444. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    445. Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Macroeconomic modeling for optimal stabilization policy in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    446. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    447. Gal, Peter & Pinter, Gabor, 2013. "Capital over the business cycle: renting versus ownership," Bank of England working papers 478, Bank of England.
    448. Kenwin Maung, 2021. "Estimating high-dimensional Markov-switching VARs," Papers 2107.12552, arXiv.org.
    449. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    450. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies," Working Papers 2012-12, CEPII research center.
    451. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    452. Gustavo Fruet Dias & George Kapetanios, 2014. "Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    453. Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu-Chun Wang, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    454. Bicu, A.C. & Lieb, L.M., 2015. "Cross-border effects of fiscal policy in the Eurozone," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    455. Carstensen, K. & Salzmann, L., 2017. "The G7 business cycle in a globalized world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 134-161.
    456. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2022. "Inflation and climate change: the role of climate variables in inflation forecasting and macro modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    457. Schnücker, Annika, 2016. "Restrictions Search for Panel VARs," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    458. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    459. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2020. "Estimating the effects of the Eurosystem's asset purchase programme at the country level," Discussion Papers 29/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    460. Laura Liu & Christian Matthes & Katerina Petrova, 2018. "Monetary Policy across Space and Time," Working Paper 18-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    461. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    462. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Justiniano, Alejandro, 2019. "Forecasting economic activity with mixed frequency BVARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1692-1707.
    463. Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    464. Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2022. "Sovereign Uncertainty," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    465. De Nora, Giorgia, 2023. "Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression with narrative identification. An application to monetary policy in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    466. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    467. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
    468. Eva Janssens & Robin Lumsdaine, 2021. "Sectoral slowdowns in the UK: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    469. Anthony Orji & Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Chiamaka F. Okolomike & Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji, 2022. "Do Capital Inflows and Financial Development, Influence Economic Growth in West Africa? Further Evidence from Transmission Mechanisms," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 7(1), pages 71-94.
    470. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    471. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2017. "The Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target and Macroeconomic dynamics. A SVAR analysis," Working Papers 173173908, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    472. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    473. Battulga Gankhuu, 2021. "Equity--Linked Life Insurances on Maximum of Several Assets," Papers 2111.04038, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    474. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Targeting financial stress as opposed to the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 84865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    475. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    476. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    477. Tim Oliver Berg, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of a BVAR under Alternative Specifications of the Zero Lower Bound," ifo Working Paper Series 203, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    478. Sebastian Ankargren & Måns Unosson & Yukai Yang, 2018. "A mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression with a steady-state prior," CREATES Research Papers 2018-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    479. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    480. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    481. Tesi Aliaj & Milos Ciganovic & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2023. "Nowcasting inflation with Lasso‐regularized vector autoregressions and mixed frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 464-480, April.
    482. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
    483. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    484. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2013. "It’s not just for inflation: The usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting," Working Papers (Old Series) 1303, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    485. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2015. "Forecasting with VAR Models: Fat Tails and Stochastic Volatility," CReMFi Discussion Papers 2, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
    486. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    487. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    488. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    489. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    490. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Nelson, Benjamin, 2012. "Simple banking: profitability and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 452, Bank of England.
    491. Jiahe Lin & George Michailidis, 2019. "Regularized Estimation of High-dimensional Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Models," Papers 1912.04146, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    492. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    493. Calvo-Pardo, Hector & Mancini, Tullio & Olmo, Jose, 2021. "Granger causality detection in high-dimensional systems using feedforward neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 920-940.
    494. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    495. Huber, Florian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2019. "Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 458-473.
    496. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    497. KANAZAWA, Nobuyuki & 金澤, 伸幸, 2018. "Radial Basis Functions Neural Networks for Nonlinear Time Series Analysis and Time-Varying Effects of Supply Shocks," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-64, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    498. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    499. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    500. Lomivorotov, Rodion, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of monetary policy in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 41-63.
    501. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giuliodori, Massimo & Lengyel, Andras & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2023. "Changing patterns of risk-sharing channels in the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 2849, European Central Bank.
    502. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    503. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    504. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2021. "Policy and Business Cycle Shocks: A Structural Factor Model Representation of the US Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, August.
    505. Warne, Anders & Droumaguet, Matthieu & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Working Paper Series 1794, European Central Bank.
    506. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & Mumtaz, Hroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2022. "A tail of labour supply and a tale of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 989, Bank of England.
    507. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Operational aspect of the policy coordination for financial stability: role of Jeffreys–Lindley’s paradox in operations research," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 57-81, November.
    508. Alexie Alupoaiei & Ana-Maria Sandica, 2013. "Assessing Structural Convergence between Romanian Economy and Euro Area: A Bayesian Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 372-383, July.
    509. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    510. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Joint estimation of multiple network Granger causal models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 120-133.
    511. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    512. И Управления Мир Экономики, 2017. "Байесовский подход к анализу влияния монетарной политики на макроэкономические показатели России. Bayesian approach to the analysis of monetary policy impact on Russian macroeconomics indicators," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(4), pages 53-70.
    513. Ross Doppelt & Keith O'Hara, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregressions and an Application to Identified Technology Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    514. Casarin, Roberto & Grassi, Stefano & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2023. "A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    515. Dominik Bertsche & Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2023. "Directed graphs and variable selection in large vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 223-246, March.
    516. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    517. Kociecki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele, 2012. "Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions," Working Paper Series 1492, European Central Bank.
    518. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2022. "Local Projection Inference in High Dimensions," Papers 2209.03218, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    519. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    520. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    521. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    522. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Gary Koop, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs," Working Papers No 04/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    523. Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Working Paper Series 2602, European Central Bank.
    524. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    525. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    526. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Strachan, Rodney W., 2020. "Reducing the state space dimension in a large TVP-VAR," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 105-118.
    527. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    528. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali & Kalli, Rajesh & Managi, Shunsuke & Majhi, Babita, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 324-339.
    529. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    530. Skripnikov, A. & Michailidis, G., 2019. "Regularized joint estimation of related vector autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 164-177.
    531. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    532. Zeyyad Mandalinci, 2015. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on UK Regional Activity: A Constrained MFVAR Approach," Working Papers 758, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    533. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    534. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    535. Gonzalo Echavarría M. & Wildo González P, 2011. "Un Modelo de Factores Dinámicos de Pequeña Escala para el Imacec," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 109-118, August.
    536. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    537. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    538. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
    539. Antonio Pacifico, 2023. "The Impact of Socioeconomic and Environmental Indicators on Economic Development: An Interdisciplinary Empirical Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, May.
    540. Gelper, Sarah & Wilms, Ines & Croux, Christophe, 2016. "Identifying Demand Effects in a Large Network of Product Categories," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 25-39.
    541. Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
    542. Yuan Yan & Hsin-Cheng Huang & Marc G. Genton, 2021. "Vector Autoregressive Models with Spatially Structured Coefficients for Time Series on a Spatial Grid," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 387-408, September.
    543. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2021. "Demand or supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2608, European Central Bank.
    544. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    545. Kirstin Hubrich & Frauke Skudelny, 2016. "Forecast Combination for Euro Area Inflation - A Cure in Times of Crisis?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    546. Abdul Salam & Marco Grzegorczyk, 2023. "Model averaging for sparse seemingly unrelated regression using Bayesian networks among the errors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 779-808, June.
    547. Salzmann, Leonard, 2019. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," EconStor Preprints 206691, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    548. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    549. Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015. "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers 2015/01, Latvijas Banka.
    550. Vijaykumar Dhannur & Ashwin R. John, 2021. "Foreign direct investment and export performance using the hierarchical Bayesian vector autoregression framework," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1679-1685, October.
    551. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
    552. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2016. "The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    553. Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Zörner, Thomas O., 2018. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Working Papers in Economics 2018-3, University of Salzburg.
    554. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    555. Federico D'Amario & Milos Ciganovic, 2022. "Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Log-Returns: a LASSO-VAR and Sentiment Approach," Papers 2210.00883, arXiv.org.
    556. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2016. "A Bayesian Infinite Hidden Markov Vector Autoregressive Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-107/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
    557. Qian, Hang, 2016. "A computationally efficient method for vector autoregression with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 433-437.
    558. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    559. Lozano, Francisco-Javier, 2013. "Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la venta de viviendas [Evaluation of forecasting models for house sales]," MPRA Paper 118652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    560. Guanhao Feng & Nicholas Polson, 2020. "Regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 591-608, December.
    561. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
    562. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    563. Anca Mihaela COPACIU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2022. "Spillovers in the Presence of Financial Stress – An Application to Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-43, April.
    564. Stefański, Maciej, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects and transmission channels of quantitative easing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    565. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," KAE Working Papers 2016-022, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    566. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    567. Anttonen, Jetro, 2018. "Nowcasting the Unemployment Rate in the EU with Seasonal BVAR and Google Search Data," ETLA Working Papers 62, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    568. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    569. Pauwels, Koen & Demirci, Ceren & Yildirim, Gokhan & Srinivasan, Shuba, 2016. "The impact of brand familiarity on online and offline media synergy," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 739-753.
    570. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2013. "Predictive likelihood comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models," Working Paper Series 1536, European Central Bank.
    571. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.
    572. Pažický Martin, 2021. "Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 309-346, September.
    573. Koop, Gary, 2014. "Forecasting with dimension switching VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 280-290.
    574. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    575. Birmingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2011. "The Irish Macroeconomic Response to an External Shock with an Application to Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    576. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    577. Gregor Kastner & Florian Huber, 2020. "Sparse Bayesian vector autoregressions in huge dimensions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1142-1165, November.
    578. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    579. Haroon Mumtaz, 2020. "A Generalised Stochastic Volatility in Mean VAR. An Updated Algorithm," Working Papers 908, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    580. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España.
    581. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    582. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    583. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    584. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    585. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    586. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    587. Haroon Mumtaz & Fulvia Marotta, 2023. "Vulnerability to Climate Change: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers 961, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    588. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2019. "Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 137-154.
    589. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors," Working Papers (Old Series) 1617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    590. Götz, Thomas B. & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2018. "Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure," Discussion Papers 40/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    591. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2016. "A Bayesian VAR benchmark for COMPASS," Bank of England working papers 583, Bank of England.
    592. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2014. "Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 977, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    593. Ankargren Sebastian & Unosson Måns & Yang Yukai, 2020. "A Flexible Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression with a Steady-State Prior," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-41, July.
    594. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    595. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    596. Lee, Namgil & Choi, Hyemi & Kim, Sung-Ho, 2016. "Bayes shrinkage estimation for high-dimensional VAR models with scale mixture of normal distributions for noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 250-276.
    597. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    598. Matteo Ciccarelli & Fulvia Marotta, 2021. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Working Papers 933, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    599. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    600. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Zerom, Dawit, 2019. "Semiparametric quantile averaging in the presence of high-dimensional predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 891-909.
    601. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    602. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    603. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    604. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    605. Kaiji Chen & Haoyu Gao & Patrick C. Higgins & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2020. "Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 27763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    606. Lance Kent, 2014. "Bilateral Linkages and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    607. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    608. Hartwig, Benny, 2022. "Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19," Discussion Papers 52/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    609. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    610. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013. "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-604, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    611. Damian Stelmasiak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2016. "Forecasting the Polish Inflation Using Bayesian VAR Models with Seasonality," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 21-42, March.
    612. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    613. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    614. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2798, European Central Bank.
    615. Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Machine Learning Macroeconometrics: A Primer," Working Paper series 18-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    616. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    617. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    618. Jalloul, Maya & Miescu, Mirela, 2023. "Equity market connectedness across regimes of geopolitical risks: Historical evidence and theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    619. Mitchell, James & Robertson, Donald & Wright, Stephen, 2016. "What univariate models tell us about multivariate macroeconomic models," EMF Research Papers 08, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    620. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    621. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    622. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    623. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    624. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
    625. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    626. Garegnani, Lorena & Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8940, Inter-American Development Bank.
    627. Spånberg, Erik & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2019. "The importance of the financial system for the current account in Sweden: A sectoral approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 91-103.
    628. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
    629. Ping Wu & Gary Koop, 2022. "Fast, Order-Invariant Bayesian Inference in VARs using the Eigendecomposition of the Error Covariance Matrix," Working Papers 2310, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    630. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    631. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    632. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    633. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    634. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.
    635. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    636. Haroon Mumtaz, 2018. "A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR," Working Papers 855, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    637. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    638. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting with Dynamic Models using Shrinkage-based Estimation," Working Papers 635, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    639. Adam Altăr & Matei Nicolae Kubinschi & Alina Zaharia, 2021. "Uncovering the Dynamic Relationship between Credit and Sustainable Economic Growth in Selected CEE Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    640. Elton Beqiraj & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidation and Sovereign Risk in the Euro-zone Periphery," Working Papers in Public Economics 167, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    641. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    642. Caro Navarro, Ángela & Peña, Daniel, 2018. "Estimation of the common component in Dynamic Factor Models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 27047, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    643. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    644. Carriero, Andrea & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Credit Conditions and the Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," EMF Research Papers 17, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    645. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    646. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    647. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2018. "Efecto de las condiciones financieras sobre el desempeño del sector Construcción [Effect of financial conditions on the performance of the Construction sector]," MPRA Paper 118261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    648. Salmsnov, Oleg & Babina, Natalia & Koba, Ekaterina & Koba, Ekaterina & Lopatina, Olga, 2017. "Efficiency of Monetary Policy Mechanisms Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis in the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 112276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2017.
    649. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    650. Ute Volz & Martin Mandler & Michael Scharnagl, 2016. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission: Results from a large Multi-Country BVAR," EcoMod2016 9609, EcoMod.
    651. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
    652. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    653. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    654. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    655. Wang,Dieter & Andree,Bo Pieter Johannes & Chamorro Elizondo,Andres Fernando & Spencer,Phoebe Girouard, 2020. "Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9413, The World Bank.
    656. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    657. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "The economic drivers of volatility and uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1285, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    658. Kuo‐Hsuan Chin, 2022. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: DSGE‐VAR approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 715-729, December.
    659. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    660. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2012. "Neutral Technology Shocks And The Dynamics Of Labor Input: Results From An Agnostic Identification," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, February.
    661. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral K., 2017. "The time-varying correlation between output and prices in the United States over the period 1800–2014," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 98-108.
    662. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    663. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.
    664. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    665. Eleftheria Kostika & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2022. "Assessing the effectiveness of the emergency liquidity assistance tool in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4142-4153, October.
    666. Somnath Chatterjee & Ching‐Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Thibaut Duprey & Sinem Hacıoğlu‐Hoke, 2022. "Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 380-400, April.
    667. Warne, Anders, 2023. "DSGE model forecasting: rational expectations vs. adaptive learning," Working Paper Series 2768, European Central Bank.
    668. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    669. Shevelev A.A., 2017. "Bayesian approach to evaluate the impact of external shocks on Russian macroeconomics indicators," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 26-40.
    670. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    671. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," Working Papers hal-04141032, HAL.
    672. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, "undated". "The distributional effects of climate change. An empirical analysis," Working Papers 966, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    673. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    674. Farrukh Suvankulov, 2016. "Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models," Staff Analytical Notes 16-8, Bank of Canada.
    675. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    676. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    677. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    678. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "Density Forecasting," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS59, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    679. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    680. Felipe Leal & Carlos Molina & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Proyección de la Inflación en Chile con Métodos de Machine Learning," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 860, Central Bank of Chile.
    681. MAMATZAKIS, emmanuel & MAMATZAKIS, E, 2022. "Understanding the impact of travel on wellbeing: evidence for Great Britain during the pandemic," MPRA Paper 112974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    682. Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015. "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: pro," MPRA Paper 63517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    683. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "Technical appendix to: a new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145533, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    684. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    685. Haruna, Issahaku, 2019. "Harnessing international remittances for financial development: The role of monetary policy," MPRA Paper 97004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jul 2019.
    686. Gianluca Cubadda & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "The Vector Error Correction Index Model: Representation, Estimation and Identification," CEIS Research Paper 556, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Apr 2023.
    687. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    688. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2021. "Forecasting with VAR-teXt and DFM-teXt Models:exploring the predictive power of central bank communication," Working Papers Series 559, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    689. McAdam, Peter & Warne, Anders, 2020. "Density forecast combinations: the real-time dimension," Working Paper Series 2378, European Central Bank.
    690. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    691. Petrova, Katerina, 2019. "A quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach to time varying parameter VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 286-306.
    692. Salmanov, Oleg & Zaernjuk, Victor & Lopatina, Olga & Drachena, Irina & Vikulina, Evgeniya, 2016. "Investigating the Impact of Monetary Policy using the Vector Autoregression Method," MPRA Paper 112280, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2016.
    693. Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália, 2020. "Investment vs debt trade-offs in the post-COVID-19 European economy," EIB Working Papers 2020/09, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    694. Prüser, Jan & Blagov, Boris, 2022. "Improving inference and forecasting in VAR models using cross-sectional information," Ruhr Economic Papers 960, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    695. Bin Jiang & Anastasios Panagiotelis & George Athanasopoulos & Rob Hyndman & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Bayesian Rank Selection in Multivariate Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

  46. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2007. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
    2. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Pelin Ilbas, 2012. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 440-473, April.
    4. Paul Blackley, 2011. "Production Adjustments for Consumer Durables and the Great Moderation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(3), pages 291-302, September.
    5. Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2013. "Synchronization and Changes in International Inflation Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4194, CESifo.
    6. Eric Mayer & Johann Scharler, 2010. "Noisy Information, Interest Rate Shocks and the Great Moderation," Economics working papers 2010-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Mr. Xavier Debrun & André Sapir, 2008. "Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?," IMF Working Papers 2008/122, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Medina, Juan Pablo & Toni, Emiliano & Valdes, Rodrigo, 2023. "The Art and Science of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Chile," MPRA Paper 117198, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2023.
    10. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    11. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
    12. Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Does Greater Transparency Stabilize Output? Evidence from Panel Data," SBP Working Paper Series 59, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    13. Buch Claudia M., 2013. "Has Labor Income Become More Volatile? Evidence from International Industry-Level Data," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 399-431, December.
    14. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Post-Print hal-04459541, HAL.
    15. Buch Claudia M & Doepke Joerg & Stahn Kerstin, 2009. "Great Moderation at the Firm Level? Unconditional vs. Conditional Output Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2016. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867–2006: a dynamic factor approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    19. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
    21. Pancrazi, Roberto & Vukotic, Marija, 2013. "Technology Persistence and Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1013, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    22. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    23. Anna Charmaine Abara & Yoon Heo, 2013. "Resilience and recovery: The Philippine IT–BPO industry during the global crisis," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 160-183, June.
    24. Koch, Christoffer, 2015. "Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 316-326.
    25. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
    26. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    27. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
    28. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    29. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    30. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "Accuracy in forecasting macroeconomic variables in Iceland," Economics wp39, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    31. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    32. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    33. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    34. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    35. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Ms. Alina Carare, 2010. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the “Great Moderation”?," IMF Working Papers 2010/078, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    37. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
    39. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    42. Claudia M. Buch, 2008. "The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 2465, CESifo.
    43. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    44. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2009. "On the statistical identification of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 99-115, May.
    45. Kanzola, Anna-Maria & Papaioannou, Konstantina & Petrakis, Panagiotis E., 2023. "Environmental behavioral perceptions under uncertainty of alternative economic futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    46. McSweeney, Brendan, 2009. "The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 835-848, August.
    47. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2018. "Vulnerable Growth," Liberty Street Economics 20180409, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    48. Philippe Jolivaldt & Ibrahim Ahamada, 2010. "Filtres usuels et filtre fondé sur les ondelettes : étude comparative et application au cycle économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 149-161.
    49. Rita Duarte & Carlos Marques, 2013. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 613-638, April.
    50. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Pavon-Prado, David, 2019. "Have we been measuring monetary policy correctly? Analysing the Federal Reserve’s policies over the last century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 28342, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    52. Axel A Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Has the monetary transmission process in the euro area changed? Evidence vased on VAR estimates," BIS Working Papers 276, Bank for International Settlements.
    53. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    55. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    56. Ana gomez-Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea (Universidad de Zaragoza) & Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Bank of Spain), 2015. "Great Moderation and Great Recession. From plain sailing to stormy seas?," EcoMod2015 8267, EcoMod.
    57. Alina Carare & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the ‘Great Moderation’?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 69-97, April.
    58. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
    59. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    60. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the U.S. Results from threshold vector autoregressions," MPRA Paper 21887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2010. "Evaluating the effect of monetary policy on unemployment with alternative inflation forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 237-253, January.
    63. Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
    64. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    65. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gomez-Loscos, Ana, 2015. "The Great Moderation in historical perspective.Is it that great?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    66. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    67. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    68. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg & Stahn, Kerstin, 2008. "Great moderation at the firm level? Unconditional versus conditional output volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    69. Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
    70. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    71. Jambu, Marc-Antoine, 2010. "Has the Globalisation really generated more competition in OECD economies," MPRA Paper 19974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Kejak, Michal & Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilárd, 2009. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    73. Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Sarferaz & Martin Uebele, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic Factor Analysis vs. Reconstructed National Accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-066, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    74. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    75. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    76. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    77. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    78. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    79. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    80. Luckas Sabioni Lopes & Marcelle Chauvet & João Eustáquio Lima, 2018. "The end of Brazilian big inflation: lessons to monetary policy from a standard New Keynesian model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1475-1505, December.
    81. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Has Chinese economy become more stable?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 133-148.
    82. Jan Babecký & Aleš Bulíř & Kateřina šmídková, 2009. "Sustainable real exchange rates in the new EU Member States: Is FDI a mixed blessing?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 368, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    83. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    84. Botelho, Vasco & Foroni, Claudia & Renzetti, Andrea, 2023. "Labour at risk," Working Paper Series 2840, European Central Bank.
    85. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    86. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
    87. Carlo Ciccarelli & Anna Missiaia, 2018. "The fall and rise of business cycle co-movements in Imperial Austria’s regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 171-193, January.
    88. Amendola, Alessandra & Candila, Vincenzo & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2019. "On the asymmetric impact of macro–variables on volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 135-152.

  47. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Blasques & Meindert Heres Hoogerkamp & Siem Jan Koopman & Ilka van de Werve, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models with Clustered Loadings: Forecasting Education Flows using Unemployment Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-078/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Jan 2021.
    2. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2022. "Oil shocks and investor attention," Working Paper series 22-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    4. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Mr. Christopher Otrok, 2015. "The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country," IMF Working Papers 2015/040, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/07, European University Institute.
    6. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    7. van Roye, Björn, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2016. "Nowcasting the Czech Trade Balance," Working Papers 2016/11, Czech National Bank.
    9. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    11. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    13. Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Accurate Subsampling Intervals of Principal Components Factors," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23974, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth," IMF Working Papers 2013/076, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Martina Mincheva, 2013. "Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(4), pages 603-680, September.
    16. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    17. Bessec, M., 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    18. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    19. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    20. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Julius Stakenas, 2012. "Generating short-term forecasts of the Lithuanian GDP using factor models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    22. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
    23. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    24. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2010/12, Czech National Bank.
    25. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Estimation and inference of FAVAR models," MPRA Paper 60960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    28. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    29. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    30. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    31. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    32. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    33. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.
    34. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    35. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    36. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    37. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers 08-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    38. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
    39. Liu, Xialu & Chen, Rong, 2020. "Threshold factor models for high-dimensional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 53-70.
    40. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
    41. Heaton, Chris & Oslington, Paul, 2010. "Micro vs macro explanations of post-war US unemployment movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 87-91, February.
    42. Maurizio Daniele & Winfried Pohlmeier & Aygul Zagidullina, 2020. "Sparse Approximate Factor Estimation for High-Dimensional Covariance Matrices," Working Paper series 20-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    43. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    44. Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2012. "The directional identification problem in Bayesian factor analysis: An ex-post approach," Economics Working Papers 2012-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    45. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    46. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    47. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Matteo Luciani & Antoniomaria Conti & Matteo Barigozzi, 2013. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153330, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    49. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    50. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    51. Mengheng Li & Marcel Scharth, 2022. "Leverage, Asymmetry, and Heavy Tails in the High-Dimensional Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301, January.
    52. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    53. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    54. Conefrey, Thomas & Liebermann, Joelle, 2013. "A Monthly Business Cycle Indicator for Ireland," Economic Letters 03/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    55. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    56. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
    57. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    58. Barış Soybilgen, 2020. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 827-840, August.
    59. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    60. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Die Zinslast des Bundes in der Schuldenkrise: Wie lukrativ ist der „sichere Hafen“?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 81-91, May.
    61. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    62. Diaz, Elena Maria & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2021. "GEA tracker: A daily indicator of global economic activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    63. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    64. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    65. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    66. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    67. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    68. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    69. Michael Zhemkov, 2022. "Assessment of Monthly GDP Growth Using Temporal Disaggregation Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(2), pages 79-104, June.
    70. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    71. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
    72. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 151-178, June.
    73. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    74. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    75. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 313-345, May.
    76. Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan & Li, Mengheng, 2019. "Forecasting economic time series using score-driven dynamic models with mixed-data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1735-1747.
    77. Corona, Francisco & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24585, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    78. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    79. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach," IMF Working Papers 2018/209, International Monetary Fund.
    80. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461522, HAL.
    81. Jorge Caiado & Nuno Crato & Pilar Poncela, 2020. "A fragmented-periodogram approach for clustering big data time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(1), pages 117-146, March.
    82. Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    83. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    84. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "Efficient estimation of approximate factor models via penalized maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 1-18.
    85. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2012. "More is not always better : back to the Kalman filter in dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122317, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    86. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    87. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    88. Daniel Armeanu & Jean Vasile Andrei & Leonard Lache & Mirela Panait, 2017. "A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, July.
    89. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    90. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Ke & Yuan Liao, 2016. "Augmented Factor Models with Applications to Validating Market Risk Factors and Forecasting Bond Risk Premia," Papers 1603.07041, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    91. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    92. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    93. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    94. Otrok Christopher & Pourpourides Panayiotis M., 2019. "On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    95. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    96. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
    97. Giovanni Ballarin & Petros Dellaportas & Lyudmila Grigoryeva & Marcel Hirt & Sophie van Huellen & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2022. "Reservoir Computing for Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data," Papers 2211.00363, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    98. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    99. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    100. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    101. International Monetary Fund, 2019. "Malaysia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia," IMF Staff Country Reports 2019/071, International Monetary Fund.
    102. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    103. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    104. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    105. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    106. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    107. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
    108. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    109. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    110. Mario Forni & Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Stefano Soccorsi, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    111. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    112. James Sampi, 2016. "High Dimensional Factor Models: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Working Papers 75, Peruvian Economic Association.
    113. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    114. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
    115. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 1307, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    116. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2022. "One Scheme Fits All: A Central Fiscal Capacity for the EMU Targeting Eurozone, National and Regional Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    117. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    118. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    119. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
    120. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    121. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    122. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2012. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for approximate factor models of high dimension," MPRA Paper 42099, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2012.
    123. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    124. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    125. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    126. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    127. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    128. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," CESifo Working Paper Series 3956, CESifo.
    129. Jason Angelopoulos & Costas I. Chlomoudis, 2017. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for the U.S. Port Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(1), pages 22-37, January-M.
    130. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    131. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    132. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    133. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2018. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," CREATES Research Papers 2018-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    134. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    135. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    136. Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
    137. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    138. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    139. Krist'of N'emeth & D'aniel Hadh'azi, 2023. "GDP nowcasting with artificial neural networks: How much does long-term memory matter?," Papers 2304.05805, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    140. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    141. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    142. Mr. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Financial Stability in a LIC: The Case of Bangladesh," IMF Working Papers 2015/231, International Monetary Fund.
    143. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    144. Li, Mengheng & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lit, Rutger & Petrova, Desislava, 2020. "Long-term forecasting of El Niño events via dynamic factor simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 46-66.
    145. Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    146. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2017. "How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2017/218, International Monetary Fund.
    147. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Romain Lafarguette & Dulani Seneviratne, 2018. "Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?," IMF Working Papers 2018/015, International Monetary Fund.
    148. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    149. Daniel Hopp, 2021. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Papers 2106.08901, arXiv.org.
    150. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2019. "Monitoring and Nowcasting Sustainable Development Goals. A Case Study for Austria," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66635, April.
    151. Björn Roye, 2014. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 101-126, February.
    152. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    153. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    154. Pierzak, Agnieszka, 2013. "Forecasting inflation in Poland using dynamic factor model," MF Working Papers 17, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    155. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2020. "A replication of "A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models" (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-14.
    156. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    157. Ruoxuan Xiong & Markus Pelger, 2019. "Large Dimensional Latent Factor Modeling with Missing Observations and Applications to Causal Inference," Papers 1910.08273, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    158. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    159. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    160. Caterina Schiavoni & Franz Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jan van den Brakel, 2019. "A dynamic factor model approach to incorporate Big Data in state space models for official statistics," Papers 1901.11355, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    161. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    162. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    163. Diaz, Elena Maria & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2505, European Central Bank.
    164. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2019. "Questioning the news about economic growth: Sparse forecasting using thousands of news-based sentiment values," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1370-1386.
    165. Fresoli, Diego & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2023. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    166. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
    167. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    168. Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 21-31.
    169. Mäkinen, Mikko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Russian GDP growth," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    170. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    171. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    172. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    173. Liebermann, Joëlle, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 74-84, February.
    174. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    175. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2017. "Inferences in panel data with interactive effects using large covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 59-78.
    176. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    177. Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco, 2013. "Factor models in high-dimensional time series—A time-domain approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2678-2695.
    178. Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.
    179. Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk & Hillebrand, Eric & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Consistent estimation of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 535-562.
    180. Lasse BORK & Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA, 2009. "Identification of macroeconomic factors in large panels," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.18, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    181. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    182. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    183. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    184. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    185. Barigozzi, Matteo & Moneta, Alessio, 2016. "Identifying the independent sources of consumption variation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60979, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    186. Xiong, Ruoxuan & Pelger, Markus, 2023. "Large dimensional latent factor modeling with missing observations and applications to causal inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 271-301.
    187. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & M. Hasan Yilmaz, 2021. "Do local and global factors impact the emerging markets' sovereign yield curves? Evidence from a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1214-1229, November.
    188. Juraj Hucek & Alexander Karsay & Marian Vavra, 2015. "Short-term Forecasting of Real GDP Using Monthly Data," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    189. Philipp Gersing & Christoph Rust & Manfred Deistler, 2023. "Weak Factors are Everywhere," Papers 2307.10067, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    190. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2023. "Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 253-287, June.
    191. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Xiao-Lin & Xu, XuChuan & Fang, Yi, 2021. "The risk spillover effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy sector: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    192. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    193. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
    194. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    195. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
    196. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    197. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    198. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    199. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    200. Andrey Zubarev & Daniil Lomonosov & Konstantin Rybak, 2022. "Estimation of the Impact of Global Shocks on the Russian Economy and GDP Nowcasting Using a Factor Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(2), pages 49-78, June.
    201. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    202. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models in gretl. The DFM package," gretl working papers 7, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    203. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    204. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    205. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    206. Gideon Du Rand & Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 503, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    207. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
    208. Doemeland,Doerte & Estevão,Marcello & Jooste,Charl & Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Tsiropoulos,Vasileios, 2022. "Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9929, The World Bank.
    209. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    210. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    211. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    212. Cecilia Frale & Stefano Grassi & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2013. "EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries," CEIS Research Paper 287, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 01 Oct 2013.
    213. Stephane DEES & Audrone JAKAITIENE, 2008. "Short-term Forecasting Methods of International Trade Variables," EcoMod2008 23800029, EcoMod.
    214. Jason Angelopoulos, 2017. "Creating and assessing composite indicators: Dynamic applications for the port industry and seaborne trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 126-159, March.
    215. Su, Liangjun & Miao, Ke & Jin, Sainan, 2019. "On Factor Models with Random Missing: EM Estimation, Inference, and Cross Validation," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 4-2019, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    216. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
    217. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    218. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.
    219. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Frühzeitiges Monitoring der Ziele für eine nachhaltige und inklusive Entwicklung in Österreich. Bewertung der Entwicklung von SDG 8 auf Basis der WIFO-Konjunkturprognose und Nowcasts," WIFO Research Briefs 17, WIFO.
    220. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Xiu, Dacheng, 2017. "Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 384-399.
    221. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik, 2018. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," IMF Working Papers 2018/180, International Monetary Fund.
    222. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    223. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    224. Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
    225. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    226. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    227. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    228. Loermann, Julius & Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting US GDP with artificial neural networks," MPRA Paper 95459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    229. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2017. "A Unified Framework for Dimension Reduction in Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    230. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    231. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    232. Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Jooste,Charl, 2020. "Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9247, The World Bank.
    233. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    234. Hopp Daniel, 2022. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 847-873, September.
    235. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    236. Bastian Gribisch, 2018. "A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 621-651, September.
    237. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    238. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    239. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    240. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    241. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    242. Luke Mosley & Tak-Shing Chan & Alex Gibberd, 2023. "sparseDFM: An R Package to Estimate Dynamic Factor Models with Sparse Loadings," Papers 2303.14125, arXiv.org.
    243. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    244. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    245. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    246. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Post-Print hal-03461522, HAL.
    247. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    248. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    249. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    250. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
    251. Roberto S. Mariano & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2021. "Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 383-400, December.
    252. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2020. "A comment on the dynamic factor model with dynamic factors," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    253. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    254. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Staff Working Papers 12-13, Bank of Canada.
    255. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    256. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
    257. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    258. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    259. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Nikita E. German, 2018. "Forecasting Current GDP Dynamics With Google Search Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 83-94, December.
    260. Francisco Corona & Graciela Gonz'alez-Far'ias & Jes'us L'opez-P'erez, 2021. "A nowcasting approach to generate timely estimates of Mexican economic activity: An application to the period of COVID-19," Papers 2101.10383, arXiv.org.
    261. Francisco Blasques & Enzo D'Innocenzo & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Common and Idiosyncratic Conditional Volatility Factors: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-057/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    262. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi-Frequency and Data-Rich Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 360-384, June.
    263. Dai, Chaoxing & Lu, Kun & Xiu, Dacheng, 2019. "Knowing factors or factor loadings, or neither? Evaluating estimators of large covariance matrices with noisy and asynchronous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 43-79.
    264. Paolo Fornaro & Henri Luomaranta, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish real economic activity: a machine learning approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 55-71, January.
    265. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    266. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    267. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2022. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity : Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-03626503, HAL.
    268. Daan Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2023. "Slow Expectation-Maximization Convergence in Low-Noise Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-018/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    269. Branimir, Jovanovic & Magdalena, Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," MPRA Paper 43162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    270. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    271. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    272. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    273. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    274. Juan, Aranzazu de & Poncela, Maria Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2023. "Economic activity and C02 emissions in Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37975, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    275. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    276. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna, 2018. "The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 32-44.
    277. Karmous, Aida & Boubaker, Heni & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2019. "A dynamic factor model with stylized facts to forecast volatility for an optimal portfolio," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    278. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    279. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2023. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 533-555, June.
    280. Nivín, Rafael & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Estimación de un Índice de Condiciones Financieras para el Perú," Working Papers 2019-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    281. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2015. "Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    282. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    283. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    284. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    285. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    286. Economides, Philip & Nikolaishvili, Giorgi, 2023. "Measuring economic activity in the presence of superstar MNEs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    287. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    288. Baek, Changryong & Gates, Katheleen M. & Leinwand, Benjamin & Pipiras, Vladas, 2021. "Two sample tests for high-dimensional autocovariances," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

  48. Giannone, Domenico & Matheson, Troy, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," CEPR Discussion Papers 6469, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    2. Ant?nio Cl¨¦cio de Brito & Elano Ferreira Arruda & Ivan Castelar & Nicolino Trompieri Neto & Cristiano Santos, 2019. "Core Inflation, Expectations and Inflation Dynamics in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 1-1, June.
    3. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.
    4. Venditti, Fabrizio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Saporito, Giuseppe, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Working Paper Series 900, European Central Bank.
    5. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    6. Oğuz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2009. "Design and evaluation of core inflation measures for Turkey," IFC Working Papers 3, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    8. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    9. Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper 80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Min Chang & Changho Choi & Keunhyeong Park, 2016. "Inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period: Korea's experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 221-230, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2008. "A monthly indicator of Economic activity for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 31, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    14. Alain Kabundi & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 137, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    15. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Working Papers ECARES 2008_012, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Aaron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2008. "Some benefits of monetary policy transparency in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Satish Ranchhod, 2013. "Measures of New Zealand core inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 3-11, March.
    18. David Baqaee, 2009. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: the case in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    19. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    21. Rachel Holden, 2006. "Measuring core inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 1-7, December.
    22. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
    23. Günes Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Testing an Interpretation of Core Inflation Measures in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    24. Gideon Du Rand & Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 503, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    25. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    26. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2016. "The Usefulness of the Median CPI in Bayesian VARs Used for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    27. Sigal Ribon, 2009. "Core Inflation Indices for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2009.08, Bank of Israel.
    28. Jinill Kim & Byung Kwun Ahn, 2012. "A New Measure for Core Inflation Based on Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(2), pages 1-28, June.
    29. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2013. "The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-35, Bank of Canada.
    31. Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2014. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Icelandic Core Inflation," Economics wp67, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    32. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    33. Chris Bloor, 2009. "The use of statistical forecasting models at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 21-26, June.
    34. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    35. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers," Staff Reports 420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    36. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Common Faith or Parting Ways? A Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 539-565, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

  49. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
    2. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2022. "Oil shocks and investor attention," Working Paper series 22-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Shadow rates as a measure of the monetary policy stance: Some international evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(5), pages 399-422, November.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    5. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    6. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    7. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. Maria A. Arias & Charles S. Gascon & David E. Rapach, 2014. "Metro Business Cycles," Working Papers 2014-46, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Dynamic specification tests for dynamic factor models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 325-346, April.
    12. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    13. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Davide Ferrari & Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach," Working Papers No 11/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2017. "A financially stressed euro area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-37.
    18. Francisco Serranito & Nicolas Himounet & Julien Vauday, 2023. "Uncertainty is bad for Business. Really?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    19. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    20. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Estimation and inference of FAVAR models," MPRA Paper 60960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    22. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    23. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    24. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
    25. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    26. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    27. Miranda Gualdrón, Karen Alejandra & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2021. "Dynamic factor models: does the specification matter?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 32210, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    28. Michael Funke & Andrew Tsang, 2021. "The Direction and Intensity of China’s Monetary Policy: A Dynamic Factor Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(316), pages 100-122, March.
    29. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
    30. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
    31. Máximo Camacho & Matías Pacce & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Papers 2034, Banco de España.
    32. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague & Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "Forecasting the Brazilian Yield Curve Using Forward-Looking Variables," Working Papers 799, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    34. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    35. In Choi & Jorg Breitung, 2011. "Factor models," Working Papers 1121, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Dec 2011.
    36. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    37. Matteo Luciani & Antoniomaria Conti & Matteo Barigozzi, 2013. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153330, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    38. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    39. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    40. Herwartz, Helmut & Ochsner, Christian & Rohloff, Hannes, 2020. "The credit composition of global liquidity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 409, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    41. Sentana, Enrique & Galesi, Alessandro, 2015. "Fast ML estimation of dynamic bifactor models: an application to European inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2012. "Identification and estimation of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 38434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    44. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    45. Xingwu Zhou & Martin Solberger, 2017. "A Lagrange Multiplier-Type Test for Idiosyncratic Unit Roots in the Exact Factor Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 22-50, January.
    46. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    48. Li, Kunpeng & Lu, Lina, 2014. "Efficient estimation of heterogeneous coefficients in panel data models with common shock," MPRA Paper 59312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    50. Lippi, Marco & Deistler, Manfred & Anderson, Brian, 2023. "High-Dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: A Selective Survey and Lines of Future Research," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 3-16.
    51. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2021. "Multimodality In Macrofinancial Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 861-886, May.
    52. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    53. Filippo Pellegrino, 2021. "Factor-augmented tree ensembles," Papers 2111.14000, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    54. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    55. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    56. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2008. "Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0802, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    57. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Caroline Jardet & Baptiste Meunier, 2022. "Nowcasting world GDP growth with high‐frequency data," Post-Print hal-03647097, HAL.
    59. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    60. Bai, Jushan, 2013. "Likelihood approach to dynamic panel models with interactive effects," MPRA Paper 50267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    62. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    63. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    64. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    65. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    66. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    67. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    68. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    69. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    70. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
    71. Carlos Perez Montes, 2015. "Estimation of Regulatory Credit Risk Models," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 161-191, October.
    72. Gábor Pellényi, 2012. "The Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy in Hungary: A Structural Factor Analysis," MNB Working Papers 2012/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    73. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    74. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    75. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2016. "Bayesian Compressed Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2016_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    76. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 479-489, March.
    77. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    78. Corona, Francisco & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24585, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    79. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    80. Necmettin Alpay Koçak, 2020. "The Role of Ecb Speeches in Nowcasting German Gdp," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 05-20.
    81. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461522, HAL.
    82. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 2009. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis with an Application to the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2009-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    83. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    84. Jorge Caiado & Nuno Crato & Pilar Poncela, 2020. "A fragmented-periodogram approach for clustering big data time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(1), pages 117-146, March.
    85. Shinya Tanaka & Eiji Kurozumi, 2010. "Investigating Finite Sample Properties of Estimators for Approximate Factor Models When N Is Small," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-156, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    86. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    87. Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    88. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    89. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "Efficient estimation of approximate factor models via penalized maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 1-18.
    90. Reis, Ricardo & Watson, Mark W., 2007. "Measuring changes in the value of the numeraire," Kiel Working Papers 1364, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    91. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-00849071, HAL.
    92. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1619, Banco de España.
    93. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    94. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    95. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2012. "Sparse partial least squares in time series for macroeconomic forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    96. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    97. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "BIAS correction for dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24029, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    98. Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2018. "Nowcasting Indian GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(2), pages 259-282, April.
    99. Daniel Armeanu & Jean Vasile Andrei & Leonard Lache & Mirela Panait, 2017. "A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, July.
    100. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    101. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Ke & Yuan Liao, 2016. "Augmented Factor Models with Applications to Validating Market Risk Factors and Forecasting Bond Risk Premia," Papers 1603.07041, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    102. Ricardo Reis & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and the Phillips Correlation," NBER Working Papers 13615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    103. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    104. Koopman, Siem Jan & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 676-694.
    105. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    106. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    107. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 633, European Central Bank.
    108. Matteo Barigozzi & Daniele Massacci, 2022. "Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models," Papers 2210.09828, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    109. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    110. Kunpeng Li & Qi Li & Lina Lu, 2018. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Analysis of High Dimensional Constrained Factor Models," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 18-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    111. Pellényi, Gábor, 2012. "A monetáris politika hatása a magyar gazdaságra. Elemzés strukturális, dinamikus faktormodellel [The sectoral effects of monetary policy in Hungary: a structural factor]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-284.
    112. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    113. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    114. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    115. Erhan Uluceviz & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Measuring Real-Financial Connectedness in the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 2018-02, Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics.
    116. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    117. Françoise Charpin, 2009. "Estimation précoce de la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03476082, HAL.
    118. Solberger, M. & Zhou, X., 2013. "LM-type tests for idiosyncratic and common unit roots in the exact factor model with AR(1) dynamics," Research Memorandum 059, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    119. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    120. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    121. Ar'anzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela & Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," Papers 2206.03187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    122. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    123. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Stemmer, Michael A., 2016. "Polarization or convergence? An analysis of regional unemployment disparities in Europe over time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 373-381.
    124. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    125. André Nunes Maranhão & Nicole Rennó Castro, 2023. "Dissecting Brazilian agriculture business cycles in high-dimensional and time-irregular span contexts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1543-1578, October.
    126. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    127. Nina Boyarchenko & Richard K. Crump & Anna Kovner & Or Shachar, 2021. "Measuring Corporate Bond Market Dislocations," Staff Reports 957, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    128. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    129. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    130. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    131. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Tripodis, Yorghos, 2014. "Dynamic Factor Analysis for Short Panels: Estimating Performance Trajectories for Water Utilities," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170592, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    132. James Sampi, 2016. "High Dimensional Factor Models: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Working Papers 75, Peruvian Economic Association.
    133. Francis X. Diebold, 2020. "Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession," NBER Working Papers 27482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    134. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    135. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    136. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    137. António Rua & Francisco Dias, 2020. "A non-hierarchical dynamic factor model for three-way data," Working Papers w202007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    138. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    139. Nimantha Manamperi, 2015. "A Comparative Analysis on US Financial Stress Indicators," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 613-623.
    140. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    141. Arvid Raknerud & Terje Skjerpen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2007. "Forecasting key macroeconomic variables from a large number of predictors: A state space approach," Discussion Papers 504, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    142. Françoise Charpin, 2009. "Estimation précoce de la croissance," Post-Print hal-03476082, HAL.
    143. Scott Brave & Hesna Genay, 2011. "Federal Reserve policies and financial market conditions during the crisis," Working Paper Series WP-2011-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    144. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    145. Konstantin Kuck & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "Forecasting Baden‐Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed‐frequency factor models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 861-882, August.
    146. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2012. "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference for approximate factor models of high dimension," MPRA Paper 42099, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2012.
    147. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2018. "Vulnerable Growth," Liberty Street Economics 20180409, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    148. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    149. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    150. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    151. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    152. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    153. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    154. Peña, Daniel & Smucler, Ezequiel & Yohai, Victor J., 2021. "Sparse estimation of dynamic principal components for forecasting high-dimensional time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1498-1508.
    155. Christian Brownlees & Geert Mesters, 2017. "Detecting Granular Time Series in Large Panels," Working Papers 991, Barcelona School of Economics.
    156. Yohei Yamamoto & Naoko Hara, 2022. "Identifying factor‐augmented vector autoregression models via changes in shock variances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 722-745, June.
    157. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    158. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2010. "Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions," Working Paper Series WP-2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    159. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    160. Matteo Barigozzi & Angelo Cuzzola & Marco Grazzi & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Factoring in the micro: a transaction-level dynamic factor approach to the decomposition of export volatility," LEM Papers Series 2021/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    161. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    162. Matteo Luciani, 2020. "Common and Idiosyncratic Inflation," FEDS Notes 2020-03-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    163. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    164. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    165. Poghosyan, Karen & Poghosyan, Ruben, 2021. "On the applicability of dynamic factor models for forecasting real GDP growth in Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 28-46.
    166. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    167. Dias Francisco & Rua António & Pinheiro Maximiano, 2013. "Determining the number of global and country-specific factors in the euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 573-617, December.
    168. Noh-Sun Kwark & Changhyun Lee, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Financial Conditions on GDP Growth in Korea: A Quantile Regression Analysis," Working Papers 2005, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    169. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    170. Linton, O. B. & Tang, H. & Wu, J., 2022. "A Structural Dynamic Factor Model for Daily Global Stock Market Returns," Janeway Institute Working Papers camjip:2214, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    171. Onatski, Alexei, 2012. "Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 244-258.
    172. Franz Ramsauer & Aleksey Min & Michael Lingauer, 2019. "Estimation of FAVAR Models for Incomplete Data with a Kalman Filter for Factors with Observable Components," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-43, July.
    173. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    174. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    175. Gijsbert Suren & Guilherme Moura, 2012. "Heteroskedastic Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 2884-2898.
    176. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "The direction and intensity of China's monetary policy conduct: A dynamic factor modelling approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    177. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    178. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2020. "A replication of "A quasi-maximum likelihood approach for large, approximate dynamic factor models" (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-14.
    179. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    180. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    181. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    182. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    183. Damien Passemier & Zhaoyuan Li & Jianfeng Yao, 2017. "On estimation of the noise variance in high dimensional probabilistic principal component analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(1), pages 51-67, January.
    184. Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar, 2020. "Including news data in forecasting macro economic performance of China," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 585-611, December.
    185. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    186. Gregor B urle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    187. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    188. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2019. "Questioning the news about economic growth: Sparse forecasting using thousands of news-based sentiment values," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1370-1386.
    189. Fresoli, Diego & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2023. "Ignoring cross-correlated idiosyncratic components when extracting factors in dynamic factor models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    190. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.
    191. Catherine Doz & Anna Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 481-538, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    192. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    193. Simone Arrigoni & Alina Bobasu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Conditions using Equal Weights Combination," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 668-697, December.
    194. Hou, Lei & Li, Kunpeng & Li, Qi & Ouyang, Min, 2021. "Revisiting the location of FDI in China: A panel data approach with heterogeneous shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 483-509.
    195. Carlos Pérez Montes, 2013. "Estimation of Regulatory Credit Risk Models," Working Papers 1305, Banco de España.
    196. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    197. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    198. Mogliani, Matteo & Simoni, Anna, 2021. "Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: Estimation, selection, and prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 833-860.
    199. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    200. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," MPRA Paper 113172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    201. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    202. Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco, 2013. "Factor models in high-dimensional time series—A time-domain approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2678-2695.
    203. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    204. Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk & Hillebrand, Eric & Urga, Giovanni, 2019. "Consistent estimation of time-varying loadings in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 535-562.
    205. Lasse BORK & Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA, 2009. "Identification of macroeconomic factors in large panels," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.18, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    206. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    207. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    208. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    209. Barigozzi, Matteo & Moneta, Alessio, 2016. "Identifying the independent sources of consumption variation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60979, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    210. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    211. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    212. Li, Yuanbo & Ng, Chi Tim & Yau, Chun Yip, 2022. "GARCH-type factor model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    213. Zhou, X. & Solberger, M., 2013. "A Lagrange multiplier-type test for idiosyncratic unit roots in the exact factor model under misspecification," Research Memorandum 058, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    214. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    215. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodr�guez, 2012. "A factorial decomposition of inflation in Peru: an alternative measure of core inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1331-1334, September.
    216. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    217. Andrey Zubarev & Daniil Lomonosov & Konstantin Rybak, 2022. "Estimation of the Impact of Global Shocks on the Russian Economy and GDP Nowcasting Using a Factor Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(2), pages 49-78, June.
    218. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    219. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2019. "Predicting interest rates in real-time," Discussion Papers 19/18, Department of Economics, University of York.
    220. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    221. Shaoxin Wang & Hu Yang & Chaoli Yao, 2019. "On the penalized maximum likelihood estimation of high-dimensional approximate factor model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 819-846, June.
    222. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    223. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
    224. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    225. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    226. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    227. Doemeland,Doerte & Estevão,Marcello & Jooste,Charl & Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Tsiropoulos,Vasileios, 2022. "Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9929, The World Bank.
    228. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    229. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    230. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    231. Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers 2010-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, revised Aug 2010.
    232. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.
    233. Karen Miranda & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Dynamic factor models: Does the specification matter?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 397-428, May.
    234. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    235. Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015. "Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
    236. Mirko Wiederholt & Emanuel Moench & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2009. "Sectoral Price Data and Models of Price Setting," 2009 Meeting Papers 666, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    237. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    238. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    239. Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Jooste,Charl, 2020. "Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9247, The World Bank.
    240. Salamaliki, Paraskevi, 2019. "Assessing labor market conditions in Greece: a note," MPRA Paper 97559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    241. Rachida Ouysse, 2017. "Constrained principal components estimation of large approximate factor models," Discussion Papers 2017-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    242. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    243. Carlomagno Real, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2017. "Discovering pervasive and non-pervasive common cycles," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 25392, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    244. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2015. "Likelihood‐based dynamic factor analysis for measurement and forecasting," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    245. Nikolaos Zirogiannis & Yorghos Tripodis, 2013. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for Panel Data: Estimation with a Two-Cycle Conditional Expectation-Maximization Algorithm," Working Papers 2013-1, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    246. Linton, O. B. & Tang, H. & Wu, J., 2022. "A Structural Dynamic Factor Model for Daily Global Stock Market Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2237, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    247. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    248. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2009. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 77-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    249. Bastian Gribisch, 2018. "A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 621-651, September.
    250. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    251. Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Lars Spreng & Giovanni Urga, 2023. "Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence of instabilities from time‐varying factor loadings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 857-877, September.
    252. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    253. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
    254. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    255. Tobias Hartl & Roland Jucknewitz, 2022. "Approximate state space modelling of unobserved fractional components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-98, January.
    256. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    257. Francis X. Diebold, 2020. "Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020," Papers 2006.15183, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    258. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    259. Samuel N. Cohen & Silvia Lui & Will Malpass & Giulia Mantoan & Lars Nesheim & 'Aureo de Paula & Andrew Reeves & Craig Scott & Emma Small & Lingyi Yang, 2023. "Nowcasting with signature methods," Papers 2305.10256, arXiv.org.
    260. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    261. Luke Mosley & Tak-Shing Chan & Alex Gibberd, 2023. "sparseDFM: An R Package to Estimate Dynamic Factor Models with Sparse Loadings," Papers 2303.14125, arXiv.org.
    262. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    263. Guillermo Carlomagno & Antoni Espasa, 2021. "Discovering Specific Common Trends in a Large Set of Disaggregates: Statistical Procedures, their Properties and an Empirical Application," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 641-662, June.
    264. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    265. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I.Ethem, 2019. "Local currency bond risk premia: A panel evidence on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 182-196.
    266. Jie Wei & Yonghui Zhang, 2023. "Does Principal Component Analysis Preserve the Sparsity in Sparse Weak Factor Models?," Papers 2305.05934, arXiv.org.
    267. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
    268. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Post-Print hal-03461522, HAL.
    269. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    270. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2012. "Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 191-239, June.
    271. Bai, Jushan & Li, Kunpeng, 2010. "Theory and methods of panel data models with interactive effects," MPRA Paper 43441, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2012.
    272. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Han Liu, 2016. "An overview of the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 1-32, February.
    273. Laurent Ferrara & Olivier Darné & Karim Barhoumi, 2016. "A world trade leading index (WLTI)," Post-Print hal-01635948, HAL.
    274. Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Machine Learning Macroeconometrics: A Primer," Working Paper series 18-30, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    275. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
    276. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    277. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther, 2020. "A comment on the dynamic factor model with dynamic factors," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    278. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
    279. Francisco Corona & Graciela Gonz'alez-Far'ias & Jes'us L'opez-P'erez, 2021. "A nowcasting approach to generate timely estimates of Mexican economic activity: An application to the period of COVID-19," Papers 2101.10383, arXiv.org.
    280. Nikolaos Zirogiannis & Yorghos Tripodis, 2018. "Dynamic factor analysis for short panels: estimating performance trajectories for water utilities," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(1), pages 131-150, March.
    281. Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen & Eric Hillebrand & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Time-Varying Loadings in High-Dimensional Factor Models," CREATES Research Papers 2015-61, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    282. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel, 0000. "Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-041/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Sep 2010.
    283. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    284. M. Pilar Muñoz & Cristina Corchero & F.-Javier Heredia, 2013. "Improving Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Factor Models for the Optimal Generation Bid," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(2), pages 289-306, August.
    285. Françoise Charpin, 2009. "Estimation précoce de la croissance: De la régression LARS au modèle à facteurs," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
    286. Kutateladze, Varlam, 2022. "The kernel trick for nonlinear factor modeling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 165-177.
    287. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    288. Branimir, Jovanovic & Magdalena, Petrovska, 2010. "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," MPRA Paper 43162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    289. Varlam Kutateladze, 2021. "The Kernel Trick for Nonlinear Factor Modeling," Papers 2103.01266, arXiv.org.
    290. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    291. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    292. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Tripodis, Yorghos, 2013. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for Panel Data: Estimation with a Two-Cycle Conditional Expectation-Maximization Algorithm," Working Paper Series 142752, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    293. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    294. B. Jungbacker & S.J. Koopman & M. van der Wel, 2009. "Dynamic Factor Analysis in The Presence of Missing Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-010/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Mar 2011.
    295. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    296. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna, 2018. "The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 32-44.
    297. Petrella, Ivan & Venditti, Fabrizio & Delle Monache, Davide, 2016. "Adaptive state space models with applications to the business cycle and financial stress," CEPR Discussion Papers 11599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    298. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri, 2015. "Small Versus Large Firms Employment Patterns in Finland: a Comparison," MPRA Paper 66979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    299. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2015. "Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    300. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    301. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    302. Thomas Despois & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Identifying and interpreting the factors in factor models via sparsity: Different approaches," PSE Working Papers halshs-02235543, HAL.
    303. Li, Kunpeng & Cui, Guowei & Lu, Lina, 2020. "Efficient estimation of heterogeneous coefficients in panel data models with common shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 327-353.
    304. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    305. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    306. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.

  50. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Pericoli, Filippo & Pierucci, Eleonora & Ventura, Luigi, 2011. "International investment positions and risk sharing: an empirical analysis on the coordinated portfolio investment survey," MPRA Paper 33071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    3. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
    4. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
    6. Berger, Helge, 2005. "Optimal central bank design: benchmarks for the ECB," Discussion Papers 2005/27, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Economics Working Papers 1158, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2012.
    8. Nikos Christodoulakis, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU: convergence, divergence and new policy priorities," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 22, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    9. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    10. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    11. Balli, Faruk & Pericoli, Filippo M. & Pierucci, Eleonora, 2018. "Globalization and international risk-sharing: The role of social and political integration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 324-345.
    12. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova, January.
    13. Balli, Faruk & Sorensen, Bent E., 2007. "Risk Sharing among OECD and EU Countries: The Role of Capital Gains, Capital Income, Transfers, and Saving," MPRA Paper 10223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Martina Cecioni & Stefano Neri, 2011. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: has it changed and why?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 808, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Sergei Aliukov & Jan Buleca, 2022. "Comparative Multidimensional Analysis of the Current State of European Economies Based on the Complex of Macroeconomic Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-29, March.
    16. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    17. Mr. Marco Terrones & Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Eswar S Prasad, 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IMF Working Papers 2007/238, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased? Evidence from stability and convergence programmes and the European Commission’s Spring forecasts," Papers WP681, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Berk, Jan Marc & Swank, Job, 2011. "Price level convergence and regional Phillips curves in the US and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 749-763, September.
    20. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    22. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00612515, HAL.
    24. Pietro Cova & Lisa Rodano, 2019. "Relative price dynamics in the Euro area: where do we stand?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1226, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava, January.
    27. Van Robays, Ine & Stracca, Livio, 2020. "How much does aggregate demand travel across the Atlantic?," Working Paper Series 2430, European Central Bank.
    28. Peter Fuleky & L Ventura & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing," Working Papers 201315, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    29. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Financial integration, GDP correlation and the endogeneity of optimum currency areas," Working Papers 25/2005, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    30. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Christian Friedrich, 2015. "Does Financial Integration Increase Welfare? Evidence from International Household-Level Data," Staff Working Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    32. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2011. "The impact of external shocks on the eurozone: a structural VAR model," Working Papers hal-00610024, HAL.
    33. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Attilio Gardini, 2006. "International dynamic risk sharing," Quaderni di Dipartimento 1, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    34. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    35. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    36. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2019. "Synchronization Patterns in the European Union," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-30, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    37. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    38. Mirko Abbritti; Sebastian Weber, 2008. "Labor Market Rigidities and the Business Cycle: Price vs. Quantity Restricting Institutions," IHEID Working Papers 01-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2008.
    39. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp115, IIIS.
    40. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo & Poncela, Pilar, 2018. "New Risk Sharing Channels in OECD Countries: a Heterogeneous Panel VAR," Working Papers 2018-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    42. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    43. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    44. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2008. "Globalisation, growth and institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 472-479, April.
    45. Eleonora Pierucci & Luigi Ventura, 2011. "On international risk sharing and financial globalization: some gloomy evidence," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0124, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    46. Holtemöller, Oliver (Ed.) & Rahn, Jörg (Ed.) & Stierle, Michael H. (Ed.), 2009. "Characteristics of Business Cycles: Have they Changed?," IWH-Sonderhefte 5/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    47. Assoc. Prof. Anca Tãnasie Ph.D & Lect. Rãzvan Tudor Tãnasie PhD, 2011. "An Algorithm Based Approach For Romania’S Road Towards The Euro-Area Membership Status. In Search Of A Suitable Example," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 133-140, November.
    48. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    49. Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2007. "Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU: Reasons, the Role of Adjustment Channels, and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2007/167, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    51. L. Aucremanne & J. Boeckx & D. Dury & S. Ide, 2008. "Ten years of monetary union in retrospect," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 21-44, December.
    52. Pilar Poncela & Filippo Pericoli & Anna Manca & Filippo Michela Nardo, 2016. "Risk Sharing in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC104621, Joint Research Centre.
    53. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Vega, Juan Luis, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 599, European Central Bank.
    54. Fratzscher, Marcel & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
    55. Thomas A. Knetsch & Arne J. Nagengast, 2017. "Penny wise and pound foolish? On the income from Germany’s foreign investments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 753-778, November.
    56. Aidan Corcoran, 2008. "International Financial Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp241, IIIS.
    57. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "How Large Is the Stress from the Common Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100341, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    58. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    59. Ana Buisán & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Cross country macroeconomic heterogeneity in EMU," Occasional Papers 0504, Banco de España.
    60. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Hysteresis in the development of unemployment: the EU and US experience," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 267-276, December.
    61. Jacques Pelkmans & Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Alessandro Maravalle, 2008. "How product market reforms lubricate shock adjustment in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 341, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    62. Li, Zhongda & Liu, Lu, 2018. "Financial globalization, domestic financial freedom and risk sharing across countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 151-169.
    63. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 621-648, December.
    64. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, January.
    65. Stephane Dees & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2011. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 573-591, December.
    66. Hirschbühl, Dominik & Spitzer, Martin, 2021. "International medium-term business cycles," Working Paper Series 2536, European Central Bank.
    67. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "What Explains Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(01-02), pages 57-67, January.
    68. Bracke, Thierry & Schmitz, Martin, 2008. "Channels of international risk-sharing: capital gains versus income flows," Working Paper Series 938, European Central Bank.
    69. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 181-196, December.
    70. Gebhard Flaig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1937, CESifo.
    71. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaires en Europe ?," Post-Print hal-00646305, HAL.
    72. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    73. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
    74. Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 2009/127, International Monetary Fund.
    75. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    76. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    77. Martin Schmitz, 2007. "Financial Markets and International Risk Sharing," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp233, IIIS.
    78. Spahn, Peter, 2012. "Integration durch Währungsunion? Der Fall der Euro-Zone," FZID Discussion Papers 57-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    79. Cristina PUIU, 2012. "The Role of Heterogeneity in Creating Imbalances in the Euro Area," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(31), pages 77-85, February.
    80. Pierucci, Eleonora & Ventura, Luigi, 2012. "International risk sharing and globalization," MPRA Paper 35869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Quint, Dominic, 2014. "Is it really more dispersed? Measuring and comparing the stress from the common monetary policy in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2014/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    82. Alves, Nuno, 2008. "The mechanics of a monetary union with segmented financial markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 346-368, March.
    83. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    84. David Marqués Ibañez, 2009. "Banks, credit and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 2-4.
    85. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    86. Nikolaou, Kleopatra & Modugno, Michele, 2009. "The forecasting power of internal yield curve linkages," Working Paper Series 1044, European Central Bank.
    87. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
    88. Dominic Quint, 2016. "Is it really more dispersed?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 593-621, October.
    89. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    90. Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Specialisation and Convergence in European Regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(2), pages 149-178, September.
    91. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
    92. Michal Bencik, 2011. "Business cycle synchronisation between the V4 countries and the euro area," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    93. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2012. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2012," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as12 edited by Romana Zamazalova & Jakub Mateju, January.
    94. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    95. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    96. Thomas D. Willett & Orawan Permpoon & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Endogenous OCA Analysis and the Early Euro Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 851-872, July.
    97. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2009. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 77-125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    98. Dan IVÃNESCU & Laura IVÃNESCU, 2016. "Estimating The Business Cycle Synchronization Between Romania And The Euro Area," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 36-42, March.
    99. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    100. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    101. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, January.
    102. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Poncela, Pilar, 2023. "Risk sharing channels in OECD countries: A heterogeneous panel VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    103. Tsekouras, Kostas & Chatzistamoulou, Nikos & Kounetas, Kostas & Broadstock, David C., 2016. "Spillovers, path dependence and the productive performance of European transportation sectors in the presence of technology heterogeneity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 261-274.
    104. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
    105. Ryan, Mary, 2009. "Investment in the Euro Area," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 64-80, July.
    106. Marcel Fratzscher & Livio Stracca, 2009. "Does It Pay to Have the Euro? Italy's Troubled Politics and Financial Markets under the Lira and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, May.
    107. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Dées, Stéphane, 2007. "The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world," Working Paper Series 798, European Central Bank.
    108. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    109. Faruk Balli & Bent E. Sørensen, 2006. "The Impact of the EMU on Channels of Risk Sharing between Member Countries," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 399-429, Izmir University of Economics.
    110. Martín Fuentes, Natalia & Born, Alexandra & Bremus, Franziska & Kastelein, Wieger & Lambert, Claudia, 2023. "A deep dive into the capital channel of risk sharing in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2864, European Central Bank.
    111. Giulia Rivolta, 2018. "Potential ECB reaction functions with time-varying parameters: an assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1425-1473, December.
    112. Mirko Abbritti & Andrea Boitani & Mirella Damiani, 2012. "Labour Market Imperfections, "Divine Coincidence" and Volatility of Employment and Inflation," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(1).
    113. Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), 2006. "Proceedings of the International Conference on Human and Economic Resources," Proceedings of the IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, Izmir University of Economics, number 2006.
    114. Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in the Euro Area: The role of government revenue and expenditure," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 323, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    115. Faruk Balli & Eleonora Pierucci, 2015. "Globalization and international risk-sharing: do political and social factors matter more than economic integration?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  51. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Cited by:

    1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," Working Papers 335, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    5. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    6. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.
    8. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2010. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2013. "Imperfect information, lagged labour adjustment, and the Great Moderation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 219-239, April.
    10. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1603, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
    15. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 23, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    16. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    19. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2011. "Indeterminacy and forecastability," Globalization Institute Working Papers 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    21. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
    22. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
    23. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Vugar Ahmadov & Salman Huseynov & Shaig Adigozalov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for regime switches?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 369-385, April.
    25. Ayse Dur & Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve," Globalization Institute Working Papers 392, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    26. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
    28. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    30. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    31. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Short term inflation forecasting: the M.E.T.A. approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1016, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    33. Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    34. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    35. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2017. "Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-215, August.
    36. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    37. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    38. Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010. "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers 10-37, Bank of Canada.
    39. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
    40. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    42. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    43. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2010. "Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    44. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
    45. Alain Kabundi & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 137, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    46. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    47. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    48. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
    49. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    51. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    52. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    53. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    54. Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Marc Giannoni & Abhi Gupta & Pearl Li & Erica Moszkowski, 2018. "DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery," Staff Reports 844, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    55. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    56. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    57. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has modelsí forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    58. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
    59. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
    60. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    61. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
    62. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
    63. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    64. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
    65. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.
    66. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
    67. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    68. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    69. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Modelsí Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    70. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
    71. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
    72. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
    73. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    74. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    75. Fanelli, Luca & Sorge, Marco M., 2017. "Indeterminate forecast accuracy under indeterminacy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 57-70.
    76. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," Working Papers ECARES 2008-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    77. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    78. Gürkaynak, Refet & Edge, Rochelle, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    79. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    80. Peter Tulip, 2009. "Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1217-1231, September.

  52. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Alho, Kari O.E. & Nikula, Nuutti, 2006. "Productivity, Empoyment and Taxes - Evidence on the Potential Trade-offs and Impacts in the EU," Discussion Papers 1054, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Premachandra, I.M., 2016. "Information spillover dynamics of the energy futures market sector: A novel common factor approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 277-294.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Alessi, Lucia & Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2016. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: stronger than thought," Working Paper Series 1967, European Central Bank.
    6. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, "undated". "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," FEEM Working Papers 324040, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Fattouh, Bassam & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.
    9. Mike Tsionas & Marwan Izzeldin & Lorenzo Trapani, 2019. "Bayesian estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," Papers 1912.12527, arXiv.org.
    10. Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi, 2015. "Are the shocks obtained from SVAR fundamental?," MPRA Paper 65126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Anastasios Evgenidis & Stephanos Papadamou, 2021. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5684-5703, October.
    13. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "External Instrument SVAR Analysis forNoninvertible Shocks," Working Papers 2023-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    14. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    15. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2017. "Granger Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 319-329, May.
    16. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2017. "The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(3), pages 1015-1040.
    17. Alfred A. Haug & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Anna Sznajderska, 2013. "Combining Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an SVAR for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 1313, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.
    18. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2023. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2011. "Testing for Sufficient Information in Structural VARs," Working Papers 536, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Instrumental Variable Identification of Dynamic Variance Decompositions," Working Papers 2021-40, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    21. ONATSKI, Alexei & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2010. "Factor Analysis of a Large DSGE Model," Cahiers de recherche 2010-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    22. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Corona, Francisco & Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2017. "Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24585, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    24. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Working Papers 2006-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Luca Gambetti, 2014. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," 2014 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Valentina Colombo & Gabriela Nodari, 2015. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non‐linear World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 746-776, May.
    27. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
    28. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    29. Rilind Kabashi, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 39-69.
    30. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    31. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Francesca Monti, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Discussion Papers 1505, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    33. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2017. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences between spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-18.
    35. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    36. Nikolay Iskrev, 2021. "Spectral decomposition of the information about latent variables in dynamic macroeconomic models," Working Papers w202105, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    37. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank.
    38. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    40. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    41. Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "On the Fundamentalness of Nonfundamentalness in DSGE Models," CSEF Working Papers 340, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    42. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Working Paper Series 1868, European Central Bank.
    43. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.
    44. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2013. "Noncausal Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 447-481, June.
    45. Yuefeng Han & Rong Chen & Cun-Hui Zhang, 2020. "Rank Determination in Tensor Factor Model," Papers 2011.07131, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    46. Nikolaos Kokonas & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2020. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in General Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 2014, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    47. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    48. Alho, Kari & Nikula, Nuutti, 2007. "Productivity, Employment and Taxes - A SVAR Analysis of Trade-offs and Impacts," Discussion Papers 1074, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    49. Tsionas, Mike G. & Izzeldin, Marwan & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2022. "Estimation of large dimensional time varying VARs using copulas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    50. Luca GATTINI & Paul HIEBERT, 2010. "Forecasting and Assessing Euro Area House Prices Through the Lens of Key Fundamentals," EcoMod2010 259600061, EcoMod.
    51. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    53. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    54. Gregor B urle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    55. Nikolay Iskrev, 2018. "Are asset price data informative about news shocks? A DSGE perspective," Working Papers REM 2018/33, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    56. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    58. Müller, Gernot & Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Lopreite, Milena & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "The effects of ageing population on health expenditure and economic growth in China: A Bayesian-VAR approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    60. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    61. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    62. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    63. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, May.
    64. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," Staff Working Papers 12-1, Bank of Canada.
    65. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    66. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2011. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 062, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    67. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Identification with external instruments in structural VARs under partial invertibility," Working Papers hal-03475454, HAL.
    68. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    69. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    70. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    71. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    72. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    73. Iskrev, Nikolay, 2019. "On the sources of information about latent variables in DSGE models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 318-332.
    74. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Elmar Mertens, 2008. "Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?," Working Papers 08.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    76. Adam Elbourne, 2019. "SVARs, the central bank balance sheet and the effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 407, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    77. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    78. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News is Good News)," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    79. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    80. Ana Mitreska & Sultanija Bojcheva – Terzijan, 2017. "Panel Estimation of the Impact of Foreign Banks Presence on Selected Banking Indicators in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

  53. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2018. "Economic predictions with big data: the illusion of sparsity," Staff Reports 847, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Norman R. Swanson, 2020. "Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 18-36, January.
    5. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-sample inference and forecasting in misspecified factor models," Economics Working Papers 1530, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    7. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
    8. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 899-915.
    9. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    10. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    11. Antonio Pacifico, 2019. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR Model to Deal with Model Misspecification and Unobserved Heterogeneity Problems," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Daniele Bianchi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2018. "Large-Scale Dynamic Predictive Regressions," Papers 1803.06738, arXiv.org.
    13. Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "Machine Learning Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Monetary and Financial VARs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    16. Berg, Tim Oliver & Henzel, Steffen, 2013. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79783, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    18. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Sebastiano Manzan, 2015. "Forecasting the Distribution of Economic Variables in a Data-Rich Environment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 144-164, January.
    20. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    22. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    24. Xu, Ning & Hong, Jian & Fisher, Timothy, 2016. "Model selection consistency from the perspective of generalization ability and VC theory with an application to Lasso," MPRA Paper 71670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    26. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
    27. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    28. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Bayesian vector autoregressions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-18, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    29. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel vector autoregressive models: a survey," Working Paper Series 1507, European Central Bank.
    30. Marine Carrasco & Guy Tchuente, 2016. "Efficient Estimation with Many Weak Instruments Using Regularization Techniques," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1609-1637, December.
    31. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    32. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining the great moderation: it is not the shocks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6413, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    33. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    34. Marius Cristian Acatrinei, 2020. "Financial stability indicator for non-banking markets," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 9(5), pages 3-9, November.
    35. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    36. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2011. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 4-22, July.
    37. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    38. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
    39. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2017. "Lasso Regressions and Forecasting Models in Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2017/108, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    42. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    43. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
    44. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    45. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    46. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
    47. Giuzio, Margherita & Ferrari, Davide & Paterlini, Sandra, 2016. "Sparse and robust normal and t- portfolios by penalized Lq-likelihood minimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 251-261.
    48. Emrah Oral & Gazanfer Unal, 2017. "Co-movement of precious metals and forecasting using scale by scale wavelet transform," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-21, March.
    49. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    50. Marine Carrasco & Mohamed Doukali, 2022. "Testing overidentifying restrictions with many instruments and heteroscedasticity using regularised jackknife IV [Specification testing in models with many instruments]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 71-97.
    51. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    52. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, December.
    53. Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    54. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    55. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017. "Large time-varying parameter VARs: a non-parametric approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1122, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    56. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    57. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
    58. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015. "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers 15-07, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    59. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Lenza, Michele & Slacalek, Jirka, 2021. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Income and Wealth Inequality? Evidence from Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 16079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    62. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    63. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    64. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    65. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    66. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2017. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Papers 1708.02786, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    67. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Foreign Exchange Futures Market for Inflation Targeting Economies," MPRA Paper 104810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    70. Rachidi Kotchoni & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in data-rich environment," Post-Print hal-02435757, HAL.
    71. Onatski, Alexei, 2015. "Asymptotic analysis of the squared estimation error in misspecified factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 388-406.
    72. Exterkate, Peter & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Nonlinear forecasting with many predictors using kernel ridge regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 736-753.
    73. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization Institute Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    74. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian T. Brownlees, 2013. "Nets: Network estimation for time series," Economics Working Papers 1391, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    75. Demeshev, Boris & Malakhovskaya, Oxana, 2016. "BVAR mapping," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 43, pages 118-141.
    76. Rachida Ouysse, 2011. "Comparison of Bayesian moving Average and Principal Component Forecast for Large Dimensional Factor Models," Discussion Papers 2012-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    77. Sandra Stankiewicz, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables with Bayesian Adaptive Elastic Net," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-12, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    78. Hande Karabiyik & Joakim Westerlund, 2021. "Forecasting using cross-section average–augmented time series regressions," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 315-333.
    79. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Papers 1809.03031, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    80. Fuentes, Julieta & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio, 2012. "Sparse partial least squares in time series for macroeconomic forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws122216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    81. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    82. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2020. "Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models," Working Papers 20-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    83. Paolo Andreini & Donato Ceci, 2019. "A Horse Race in High Dimensional Space," CEIS Research Paper 452, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Feb 2019.
    84. Alessandro Giovannelli & Tommaso Proietti, 2015. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," CEIS Research Paper 332, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Mar 2015.
    85. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-46, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    86. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    87. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    88. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    89. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    90. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    91. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    92. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2015. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Discussion Papers 45/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    93. Giacomini, Raffaella, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 10201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    94. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    95. de Menezes Barboza, Ricardo & Vasconcelos, Gabriel F.R., 2019. "Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 223-236.
    96. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2021. "Approximate Factor Models with Weaker Loadings," Papers 2109.03773, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    97. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    98. Jarociński, Marek, 2010. "Imposing parsimony in cross-country growth regressions," Working Paper Series 1234, European Central Bank.
    99. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    100. Panxu Yuan & Xiao Guo, 2022. "High-dimensional inference for linear model with correlated errors," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(1), pages 21-52, January.
    101. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    102. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Staff Working Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    103. Shah, Syed Ale Raza & Naqvi, Syed Asif Ali & Riaz, Sabahat & Anwar, Sofia & Abbas, Nasir, 2020. "Nexus of biomass energy, key determinants of economic development and environment: A fresh evidence from Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    104. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    105. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    106. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
    107. Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2014. "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series 4711, CESifo.
    108. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    109. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    110. Ouysse, Rachida, 2016. "Bayesian model averaging and principal component regression forecasts in a data rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 763-787.
    111. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil price returns: Can nonlinearity help?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    112. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
    113. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    114. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    115. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "A Factor Analysis of Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 15188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    116. Aijun Yang & Ju Xiang & Lianjie Shu & Hongqiang Yang, 2018. "Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 323-338, February.
    117. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2017. "A Generalized Factor Model with Local Factors," 2017 Papers pfr361, Job Market Papers.
    118. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    119. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    120. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    121. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2021. "Factor Models with Local Factors—Determining the Number of Relevant Factors," Working Papers 21-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    122. Yang Aijun & Xiang Ju & Yang Hongqiang & Lin Jinguan, 2018. "Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection in Probit Model for Forecasting U.S. Recessions Using a Large Set of Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1123-1138, April.
    123. Natalia Martín Fuentes & Elena Bárcena Martín & Salvador Pérez Moreno, "undated". "Who takes the cake? The heterogeneous effect of ECB accommodative monetary policy across income classes," Working Papers 657, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    124. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    125. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Forecasting aggregate stock market volatility using financial and macroeconomic predictors: Which models forecast best, when and why?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 131-154.
    126. Volha Audzei & Sergey Slobodyan, 2018. "Sparse Restricted Perception Equilibrium," Working Papers 2018/8, Czech National Bank.
    127. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    128. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    129. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    130. Daniel Borup & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2019. "In search of a job: Forecasting employment growth using Google Trends," CREATES Research Papers 2019-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    131. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    132. Sergei Seleznev, 2019. "Truncated priors for tempered hierarchical Dirichlet process vector autoregression," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps47, Bank of Russia.
    133. Ángel Estrada & Luis Guirola & Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2020. "The use of BVARs in the analysis of emerging economies," Occasional Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    134. Rangan Gupta & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 1001, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    135. Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
    136. Yoshimasa Uematsu & Takashi Yamagata, 2019. "Estimation of Weak Factor Models," ISER Discussion Paper 1053r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Mar 2020.
    137. Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2017. "Adaptive Hierarchical Priors for High-Dimensional Vector Autoregessions," Working Papers 115, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    138. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
    139. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non standard Monetary Policy measures and monetary developments," Working Papers ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    140. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    141. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2014. "Theory-coherent forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 145-155.
    142. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Working Papers 617, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    143. Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    144. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
    145. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    146. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
    147. Jiaqi Chen & Michael Tindall, 2016. "The Chen-Tindall system and the lasso operator: improving automatic model performance," Occasional Papers 16-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    148. Fady Barsoum, 2015. "Point and Density Forecasts Using an Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2015-19, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    149. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    150. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    151. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    152. Onatski, Alexei, 2012. "Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 244-258.
    153. Tomasz Wozniak, 2016. "Rare Events and Risk Perception: Evidence from Fukushima Accident," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2021, The University of Melbourne.
    154. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2009. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    155. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    156. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    157. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    158. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
    159. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    160. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    161. Krampe, J. & Paparoditis, E. & Trenkler, C., 2023. "Structural inference in sparse high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 276-300.
    162. Gargano, Antonio & Timmermann, Allan, 2014. "Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 825-843.
    163. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2017. "Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 824-839.
    164. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    165. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    166. Risse, Marian, 2019. "Combining wavelet decomposition with machine learning to forecast gold returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 601-615.
    167. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    168. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: a large BVAR for New Zealand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 537-558, October.
    169. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    170. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2021. "Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 304-327, April.
    171. Gustavo Fruet Dias & George Kapetanios, 2014. "Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    172. Bicu, A.C. & Lieb, L.M., 2015. "Cross-border effects of fiscal policy in the Eurozone," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    173. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
    174. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    175. Anesti, Nikoleta & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George, 2021. "Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels," Bank of England working papers 923, Bank of England.
    176. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    177. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2015-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Apr 2020.
    178. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    179. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    180. Sebastian Ankargren & Måns Unosson & Yukai Yang, 2018. "A mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression with a steady-state prior," CREATES Research Papers 2018-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    181. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    182. Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco, 2013. "Factor models in high-dimensional time series—A time-domain approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2678-2695.
    183. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    184. Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2022. "Does model complexity add value to asset allocation? Evidence from machine learning forecasting models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 603-639, April.
    185. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
    186. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    187. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small- and large-scale models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 168-185.
    188. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    189. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    190. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    191. Eliana González, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 7996, Banco de la Republica.
    192. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    193. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    194. Robinson Durán & Evelyn Garrido & Carolina Godoy & Juan de Dios Tena, 2012. "Predicción de la inflación en México con modelos desagregados por componente," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 133-167.
    195. И Управления Мир Экономики, 2017. "Байесовский подход к анализу влияния монетарной политики на макроэкономические показатели России. Bayesian approach to the analysis of monetary policy impact on Russian macroeconomics indicators," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(4), pages 53-70.
    196. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    197. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    198. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    199. Altavilla, Carlo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2015. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1861, European Central Bank.
    200. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    201. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    202. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2017. "A network analysis of the volatility of high-dimensionalfinancial series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    203. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    204. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2019. "Fast and Flexible Bayesian Inference in Time-varying Parameter Regression Models," Papers 1910.10779, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    205. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    206. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2020. "Lasso Inference for High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2007.10952, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    207. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
    208. Jiahan Li, 2015. "Sparse and Stable Portfolio Selection With Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 381-392, July.
    209. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
    210. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Assessing the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Pension Funds Risk Incentives," Working Papers 2016-005, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    211. Lake, A., 2020. "Optimal Feasible Expectations in Economics and Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    212. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," KAE Working Papers 2016-022, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    213. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Papers 1510.05118, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    214. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    215. Wilms, Ines & Rombouts, Jeroen & Croux, Christophe, 2021. "Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 484-499.
    216. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    217. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2017. "A Unified Framework for Dimension Reduction in Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    218. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
    219. Daniel Borup & Bent Jesper Christensen & Nicolaj N{o}rgaard Muhlbach & Mikkel Slot Nielsen, 2020. "Targeting predictors in random forest regression," Papers 2004.01411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    220. Rachida Ouysse, 2017. "Constrained principal components estimation of large approximate factor models," Discussion Papers 2017-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    221. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
    222. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    223. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
    224. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    225. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Shin, Yongcheol, 2021. "Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 899-919.
    226. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
    227. David de Antonio Liedo & Elena Fernández Muñoz, 2010. "Nowcasting Spanish GDP growth in real time: "One and a half months earlier"," Working Papers 1037, Banco de España.
    228. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    229. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    230. Angelini, Elena & Lalik, Magdalena & Lenza, Michele & Paredes, Joan, 2019. "Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections," Working Paper Series 2227, European Central Bank.
    231. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Zerom, Dawit, 2019. "Semiparametric quantile averaging in the presence of high-dimensional predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 891-909.
    232. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    233. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    234. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2017. "Representation, Estimation and Forecasting of the Multivariate Index-Augmented Autoregressive Model," CEIS Research Paper 397, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 13 Jul 2018.
    235. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    236. Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2018. "In Search of a Job: Forecasting Employment Growth in the US using Google Trends," CREATES Research Papers 2018-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    237. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    238. Boubaker, Sabri & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2017. "Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 35-52.
    239. Semih Emre Cekin & Menelik S. Geremew & Hardik Marfatia, 2019. "Monetary policy co-movement and spillover of shocks among BRICS economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(15), pages 1253-1263, September.
    240. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2023. "Прогнозирование Инфляции В России С Помощью Tvp-Модели С Байесовским Сжатием Параметров [Forecasting inflation in Russia using a TVP model with Bayesian shrinkage]," MPRA Paper 118650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    241. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    242. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    243. Jamie L. Cross & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "On the contribution of international shocks in Australian business cycle fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2613-2637, December.
    244. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting with Dynamic Models using Shrinkage-based Estimation," Working Papers 635, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    245. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    246. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.
    247. Tomasz Woźniak, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(3), pages 365-380, September.
    248. Simone Tonini & Francesca Chiaromonte & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2022. "On the impact of serial dependence on penalized regression methods," LEM Papers Series 2022/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    249. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    250. Mehmet Caner & Xu Han, 2014. "Selecting the Correct Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models: The Large Panel Case With Group Bridge Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 359-374, July.
    251. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    252. Paolo Fornaro & Henri Luomaranta, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish real economic activity: a machine learning approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 55-71, January.
    253. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/232, International Monetary Fund.
    254. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    255. Mikhail Gareev, 2020. "Use of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Investment in Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 35-56, March.
    256. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.
    257. Eleftheria Kostika & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2022. "Assessing the effectiveness of the emergency liquidity assistance tool in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4142-4153, October.
    258. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2024. "Прогнозирование Основных Российских Макроэкономических Показателей С Помощью Tvp-Модели С Байесовским Сжатием Параметров [Forecasting key Russian macroeconomic variables using a TVP model with Baye," MPRA Paper 120170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    259. Shevelev A.A., 2017. "Bayesian approach to evaluate the impact of external shocks on Russian macroeconomics indicators," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 17(1), pages 26-40.
    260. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened during the Subprime Crisis?," Working Papers hal-04141032, HAL.
    261. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    262. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
    263. Červená, Marianna & Schneider, Martin, 2014. "Short-term forecasting of GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 498-516.
    264. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    265. Alessandro Barbarino & Efstathia Bura, 2015. "Forecasting with Sufficient Dimension Reductions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  54. D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Cited by:

    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    3. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    4. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Non-Stationary Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 1910.09841, arXiv.org.
    5. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    6. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    8. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    10. Derek Bunn & Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas prices," Post-Print hal-01619890, HAL.
    11. Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2013. "Uncertainty and heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 930, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Working Papers 2013-19, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    16. Luca Di Bonaventura & Mario Forni & Francesco Pattarin, 2018. "The Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Factor Models with Vintage Data," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0070, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    17. GUO-FITOUSSI, Liang, 2013. "A Comparison of the Finite Sample Properties of Selection Rules of Factor Numbers in Large Datasets," MPRA Paper 50005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    19. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    20. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    21. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    22. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    23. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Evzen Kocenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2020/5, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2020.
    25. Jiang, Yu & Guo, Yongji & Zhang, Yihao, 2017. "Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 132-138.
    26. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    27. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    28. Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007.
    29. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    30. Viktors Ajevskis & Gundars Davidsons, 2008. "Dynamic Factor Models in Forecasting Latvia's Gross Domestic Product," Working Papers 2008/02, Latvijas Banka.
    31. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    32. Beck, Günter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    33. Alessandro Giovannelli & Tommaso Proietti, 2015. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," CEIS Research Paper 332, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Mar 2015.
    34. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    35. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    36. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    38. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
    39. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    40. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    41. Lippi, Marco & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: Asymptotic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 10618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    43. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
    44. Guido Bulligan & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2012. "Forecasting economic activity with higher frequency targeted predictors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 847, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    45. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    46. Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010. "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers 10-37, Bank of Canada.
    47. Amstad, Marlene & Ye, Huan & Ma, Guonan, 2018. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    48. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    49. Alessandro Giovannelli, 2012. "Nonlinear Forecasting Using Large Datasets: Evidences on US and Euro Area Economies," CEIS Research Paper 255, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Nov 2012.
    50. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    51. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    52. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Working Papers ECARES 2008_012, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    53. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    54. Timmermann, Allan & Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luís, 2010. "Common Factors in Latin America?s Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    55. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    56. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    57. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    58. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    59. Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar, 2020. "Including news data in forecasting macro economic performance of China," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 585-611, December.
    60. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    61. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2015. "Investment funds? vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," BCL working papers 95, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    62. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    63. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    64. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    65. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    66. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    67. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    68. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    69. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2009. "Model selection criteria for factor-augmented regressions," Staff Reports 363, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    70. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    71. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
    72. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    73. Jason Angelopoulos, 2017. "Creating and assessing composite indicators: Dynamic applications for the port industry and seaborne trade," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 126-159, March.
    74. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    75. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    76. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    77. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    78. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    79. F. Della Marra, 2017. "A forecasting performance comparison of dynamic factor models based on static and dynamic methods," Economics Department Working Papers 2017-ME01, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    80. Hanisch, Max & Kempa, Bernd, 2017. "The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 70-88.
    81. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
    82. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    83. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    84. Aðalheiður Ó. Guðlaugsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro, 2018. "The common component of the CPI - A trendy measure of Icelandic underlying inflation," Economics wp78, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    85. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    86. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    87. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent, 2008. "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models," Working Paper Series 894, European Central Bank.
    88. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    89. Gürkaynak, Refet & Edge, Rochelle, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    90. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    91. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    92. Dimitar EFTIMOSKI, 2019. "Improving Short-Term Forecasting of Macedonian GDP: Comparing the Factor Model with the Macroeconomic Structural Equation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 32-53, June.

  55. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    2. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    4. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    7. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    8. Julius Stakenas, 2012. "Generating short-term forecasts of the Lithuanian GDP using factor models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    9. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2016. "Bootstrap Inference for Impulse Response Functions in Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-26, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2010/12, Czech National Bank.
    11. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    15. Ana Gomez Loscos & M. Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," ERSA conference papers ersa11p99, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Teresa Buchen & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 4148, CESifo.
    18. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Matteo Luciani & Antoniomaria Conti & Matteo Barigozzi, 2013. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153330, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2011. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 4-22, July.
    21. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    23. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    25. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    26. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    27. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    28. Barış Soybilgen, 2020. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 827-840, August.
    29. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    30. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    31. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    32. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    33. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "A Measure of Price Pressures," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(1), pages 25-52.
    34. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 479-489, March.
    35. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    36. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-11, CIRANO.
    37. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    38. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    39. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    40. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    41. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 472-485, July.
    42. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    43. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    45. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    46. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
    47. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2007. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions vs. Large Information Set," Working Papers 318, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    48. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
    49. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
    50. Lu, Biao & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 872-884, September.
    51. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 2007-10, CEPII research center.
    52. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2016. "Macroeconomic impacts on commodity prices: China vs. the United States," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 489-500, March.
    53. Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno & Krustev, Georgi, 2014. "Has US household deleveraging ended? a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," Working Paper Series 1643, European Central Bank.
    54. Belviso Francesco & Milani Fabio, 2006. "Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-46, December.
    55. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    56. Tetlow, Robert J. & Ironside, Brian, 2005. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003," CEPR Discussion Papers 5305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    58. Dimitris Korobilis, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Econometrics, pages 403-431, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    59. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
    60. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
    61. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank.
    62. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    63. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    64. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    65. Amstad, Marlene & Ye, Huan & Ma, Guonan, 2018. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    66. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    67. Yong Li & Tao Zeng & Jun Yu, 2012. "Robust Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Working Papers 30-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    68. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 190, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
    69. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
    70. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    71. Marlene Amstad & Simon Potter & Robert Rich, 2014. "The FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge: UIG," BIS Working Papers 453, Bank for International Settlements.
    72. Faust, Jon & Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 26721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2020. "Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms for Singular Stochastic Vectors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, February.
    74. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    75. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Working Papers ECARES 2008_012, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    76. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    77. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 850.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    78. Timmermann, Allan & Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luís, 2010. "Common Factors in Latin America?s Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    79. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    80. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Fischer, B. & Lenza, M. & Pill, H. & Reichlin, L., 2009. "Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1138-1164, November.
    82. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    83. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models," Working Papers 2016/03, Czech National Bank.
    84. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
    85. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    86. Li, Hongjun & Li, Qi & Shi, Yutang, 2017. "Determining the number of factors when the number of factors can increase with sample size," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 76-86.
    87. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    88. Fischer, Andreas & Amstad, Marlene, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Daily Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 5008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    89. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    90. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    91. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    92. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    93. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    94. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    95. Lasse BORK & Hans DEWACHTER & Romain HOUSSA, 2009. "Identification of macroeconomic factors in large panels," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces09.18, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    96. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    97. Rossi Júnior, José Luiz, 2009. "Identification of monetary policy shocks and its effects: FAVAR methodology for the Brazilian economy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(2), December.
    98. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Bernoth, Kerstin & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    99. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    100. Massimiliano Serati & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Building composite leading indexes in a dynamic factor model framework: a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 212, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    101. Li, Xiao & Qiao, Yuanbo & Shi, Lei, 2019. "Has China's war on pollution slowed the growth of its manufacturing and by how much? Evidence from the Clean Air Action," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 271-289.
    102. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    103. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    104. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    105. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    106. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Post-Print hal-01386000, HAL.
    107. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    108. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    109. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich, 2017. "The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 1-32.
    110. Robert J. Tetlow & Brian Ironside, 2007. "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1561, October.
    111. In Choi & Dukpa Kim & Yun Jung Kim & Noh‐Sun Kwark, 2018. "A multilevel factor model: Identification, asymptotic theory and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 355-377, April.
    112. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "Nonfundamental Representations of the Relation between Technology Shocks and Hours Worked," LEM Papers Series 2008/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    113. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    114. In Choi, 2011. "Efficient Estimation of Nonstationary Factor Models," Working Papers 1101, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Jun 2011.
    115. Hanisch, Max, 2019. "US monetary policy and the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 77-96.
    116. Marlene Amstad & Ye Huan & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China," BIS Working Papers 465, Bank for International Settlements.
    117. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    118. Halberstadt, Arne, 2015. "The term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy: Learning about economic dynamics from a FAVAR," Discussion Papers 02/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    119. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    120. Ke, Xiao & Chen, Haiqiang & Hong, Yongmiao & Hsiao, Cheng, 2017. "Do China's high-speed-rail projects promote local economy?—New evidence from a panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 203-226.
    121. Fladung, Michael, 2007. "Spill-over effects of monetary policy: a progress report on interest rate convergence in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,27, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    122. Demir, Ishak, 2019. "International Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," EconStor Preprints 193968, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    123. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2013. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions Versus Large Information set," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    124. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields & Zheng Wang, 2012. "Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 495-516, December.
    125. Song Song & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Ya'acov Ritov, 2014. "Generalized dynamic semi‐parametric factor models for high‐dimensional non‐stationary time series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 101-131, June.
    126. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    127. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    128. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    129. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Does information help recovering fundamental structural shocks from past observations?," Macroeconomics 0511017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions in Data: Evidence and Impact," IMF Working Papers 2014/238, International Monetary Fund.
    131. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    132. Anton Grui & Roman Lysenko, 2017. "Nowcasting Ukraine's GDP Using a Factor-Augmented VAR (FAVAR) Model," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 242, pages 5-13.
    133. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 441-457, September.
    134. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    135. Arpita Chatterjee & Richa Saraf, 2017. "Impact of China on World Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters," Discussion Papers 2017-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    136. Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2014/194, International Monetary Fund.
    137. Delphine Lahet & Stéphanie Prat, 2021. "Internationalisation of emerging market currencies and original sin: Empirical evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 1973-2003, July.
    138. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    139. Marlene Amstad & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Real time underlying inflation gauges for monetary policymakers," Staff Reports 420, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    140. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    141. Song Song & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Ya'acov Ritov, 2010. "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series Modelling with Generalized Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    142. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    143. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    144. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  56. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem, 2020. "Modelling and forecasting GDP using factor model: An empirical study from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 10-26, May.
    2. Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008. "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series 925, European Central Bank.
    3. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "Nowcasting The New Turkish Gdp," Working Papers 1702, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    4. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2021. "Evaluating restricted common factor models for non-stationary data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 64-75.
    5. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.
    6. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    8. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Mr. Christopher Otrok, 2015. "The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country," IMF Working Papers 2015/040, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012. "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/07, European University Institute.
    11. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gul, Selcuk & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Local currency bond risk premia of emerging markets: The role of local and global factors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    12. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
    13. van Roye, Björn, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    15. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
    16. Hilde C. Bj⊘rnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Sepideh Khayati Zahiri, 2020. "Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 285-310, April.
    17. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah, 2017. "GDP nowcasting: application and constraints in a small open developing economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3880-3890, August.
    18. Ching Hsu & Tina Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Narrative economics using textual analysis of newspaper data: new insights into the U.S. Silver Purchase Act and Chinese price level in 1928–1936," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 761-785, November.
    19. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    21. Claus, Edda & Dungey, Mardi, 2016. "Can monetary policy surprises affect the term structure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 68-83.
    22. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Non-Stationary Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 1910.09841, arXiv.org.
    23. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Methodologies in Nowcasting," Papers 2205.03318, arXiv.org.
    24. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    26. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    27. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Bessec, M., 2012. "Short-term forecasts of French GDP: a dynamic factor model with targeted predictors," Working papers 409, Banque de France.
    29. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
    30. Bhaghoe, Sailesh & Ooft, Gavin, 2021. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth in Suriname with Factor-MIDAS and Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," Studies in Applied Economics 176, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    31. Dr. Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
    32. Lee, Kevin & Olekalns, Nils & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available," CEPR Discussion Papers 7426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Davide Ferrari & Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2019. "Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach," Working Papers No 11/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    36. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu, 2010. "A Dynamic Factor Model of Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product Growth in the Caribbean: The Case of Cuba and the Bahamas," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 20.
    37. Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain, 2017. "Do bubbles have an explosive signature in markov switching models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 81-100.
    38. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George & Zhao, Yongchen, 2013. "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 219-221.
    39. Domenico Giannone & Francesca Monti & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2014. "Exploiting the monthly data-flow in structural forecasting," Discussion Papers 1416, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    40. Abdić Ademir & Resić Emina & Abdić Adem & Rovčanin Adnan, 2020. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, December.
    41. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    42. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    43. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2010/12, Czech National Bank.
    44. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    45. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    46. Lamprou, Dimitra, 2016. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: The impact of data revisions and forecast origin on model selection and performance," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 93-102.
    47. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    48. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
    49. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    50. Germán López, 2015. "Forecast Accuracy of Small and Large Scale Dynamic Factor Models in Developing Economies," Working Papers. Serie AD 2015-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    51. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
    52. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    53. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.
    54. C. Thubin & T. Ferrière & E. Monnet & M. Marx & V. Oung, 2016. "The PRISME model: can disaggregation on the production side help to forecast GDP?," Working papers 596, Banque de France.
    55. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    56. Barbaglia, Luca & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Onorante, Luca & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Ratto, Marco & Tiozzo Pezzoli, Luca, 2022. "Testing big data in a big crisis: Nowcasting under COVID-19," Working Papers 2022-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    57. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli, 2019. "Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 846-875, March.
    58. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
    59. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Bornali Bhandari & Sudipto Mundle, 2023. "Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 213-234, March.
    60. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2020. "Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach," Working Papers 20-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    61. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    62. Anesti, Nikoleta & Galvão, Ana & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2018. "Uncertain Kingdom: nowcasting GDP and its revisions," Bank of England working papers 764, Bank of England, revised 31 Jan 2020.
    63. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    64. Yin-Wong Cheung & Matthew S. Yiu & Kenneth K. Chow, 2009. "A Factor Analysis of Trade Integration: the Case of Asian and Oceanic Economies," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 5-23.
    65. Sergei Aliukov & Jan Buleca, 2022. "Comparative Multidimensional Analysis of the Current State of European Economies Based on the Complex of Macroeconomic Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-29, March.
    66. Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting New Zealand GDP using machine learning algorithms," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The use of big data analytics and artificial intelligence in central banking, volume 50, Bank for International Settlements.
    67. Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "A factor-augmented probit model for business cycle analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    68. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    69. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    70. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    71. Martyna Marczak & Víctor Gómez, 2017. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: a new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1379-1408, June.
    72. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    73. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2014. "Nowcasting Scottish GDP growth," Working Papers 1411, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    74. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    76. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    77. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
    78. Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
    79. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain, 2014. "Nowcasting causality in mixed frequency vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 74-78.
    80. Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Jasper de Winter, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area using Principal Components," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    81. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2021. "On the Use of Current or Forward-Looking Data in Monetary Policy: A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8853, CESifo.
    82. Henzel Steffen R. & Wohlrabe Klaus & Lehmann Robert, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.
    83. Suppawong Tuarob & Thanapon Noraset & Tanisa Tawichsri, 2022. "Using Large-Scale Social Media Data for Population-Level Mental Health Monitoring and Public Sentiment Assessment: A Case Study of Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 169, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    84. Conefrey, Thomas & Liebermann, Joelle, 2013. "A Monthly Business Cycle Indicator for Ireland," Economic Letters 03/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    85. Lenza Michele & Warmedinger Thomas, 2011. "A Factor Model for Euro-area Short-term Inflation Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 50-62, February.
    86. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," MPRA Paper 96276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    87. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2021. "Matrix Completion, Counterfactuals, and Factor Analysis of Missing Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1746-1763, October.
    88. Cahan, Ercument & Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2023. "Factor-based imputation of missing values and covariances in panel data of large dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 113-131.
    89. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: One-Sided Representations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-046, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    90. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206, November.
    91. D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    92. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    93. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    94. Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2018. "Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-787.
    95. Scott Brave & Charles S. Gascon & William Kluender & Thomas Walstrum, 2019. "Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime," Working Paper Series WP 2019-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    96. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank.
    97. Sauvenier, Mathieu & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2023. "Goodness-of-fit test in high-dimensional linear sparse models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2023008, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    98. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama & Hai Anh La & Riyana Miranti & Denisa M. Sologon, 2022. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution Using Incomplete Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-31, July.
    99. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    100. Olivier BIAU & Angela D´ELIA, 2010. "Euro Area GDP Forecast Using Large Survey Dataset - A Random Forest Approach," EcoMod2010 259600029, EcoMod.
    101. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    102. Pradeep Mishra & Khder Alakkari & Mostafa Abotaleb & Pankaj Kumar Singh & Shilpi Singh & Monika Ray & Soumitra Sankar Das & Umme Habibah Rahman & Ali J. Othman & Nazirya Alexandrovna Ibragimova & Gulf, 2021. "Nowcasting India Economic Growth Using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) Model (Empirical Study with Economic Policy Uncertainty–Consumer Prices Index)," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
    103. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022. "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers 1360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    104. Sara Boni & Massimiliano Caporin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2024. "Nowcasting Inflation at Quantiles: Causality from Commodities," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS102, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    105. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Predicting quarterly aggregates with monthly indicators," Working Papers 2012-023, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    106. Michele Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Marta Banbura, 2012. "Nowcasting with Daily Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 555, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    107. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    108. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Sivec, Vasja, 2016. "Monetary, fiscal and oil shocks: Evidence based on mixed frequency structural FAVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 335-348.
    109. Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
    110. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    111. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    112. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    113. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 1, Bank of Lithuania.
    114. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    115. Schnatz, Bernd & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2012. "Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years," Working Paper Series 1455, European Central Bank.
    116. Zeno Enders & Michael Kleemann & Gernot J. Muller, 2021. "Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 905-921, December.
    117. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    118. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Libero Monteforte, 2017. "Using the payment system data to forecast the Italian GDP," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1098, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    119. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    120. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2019. "Modeling, Forecasting, and Nowcasting U.S. CO2 Emissions Using Many Macroeconomic Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2019-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    121. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Oleg Kitov, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    122. Carabias, Jose M., 2018. "The real-time information content of macroeconomic news: implications for firm-level earnings expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86399, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    123. Alessandro Giovannelli & Marco Lippi & Tommaso Proietti, 2023. "Band-Pass Filtering with High-Dimensional Time Series," Papers 2305.06618, arXiv.org.
    124. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
    125. Fornaro, Paolo, 2020. "Nowcasting Industrial Production Using Uncoventional Data Sources," ETLA Working Papers 80, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    126. Yucheng Yang & Yue Pang & Guanhua Huang & Weinan E, 2020. "The Knowledge Graph for Macroeconomic Analysis with Alternative Big Data," Papers 2010.05172, arXiv.org.
    127. D’Elia Enrico, 2014. "Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 1-22, September.
    128. Alain Galli & Christian Hepenstrick & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Mixed-Frequency Models for Tracking Short-Term Economic Developments in Switzerland," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 151-178, June.
    129. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
    130. Mr. Maxym Kryshko, 2011. "Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models," IMF Working Papers 2011/216, International Monetary Fund.
    131. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "Monthly pass-through ratios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1202-1213, July.
    132. , 2020. "Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data," Research Working Paper RWP 20-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    133. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    134. Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & João H. G Mazzeu & Luis K. Hotta & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Marc Hallin, 2019. "On the robustness of the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Working Papers ECARES 2019-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    135. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00344839, HAL.
    136. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    137. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    138. Laura E. Jackson & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2015. "A Measure of Price Pressures," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(1), pages 25-52.
    139. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2018. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," CESifo Working Paper Series 7079, CESifo.
    140. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    141. Ramazan Yanik & Asfia Binte Osman & Ozcan Ozturk, 2020. "Impact of manufacturing PMI on stock market index: A study on Turkey," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 6(3), pages 104-108.
    142. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Working Papers 2006-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    143. Enrico di Bella & Lucia Leporatti & Filomena Maggino, 2018. "Big Data and Social Indicators: Actual Trends and New Perspectives," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 869-878, February.
    144. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    145. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration, and Error Correction Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    146. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    147. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanović, Dalibor, 2018. "Mixed frequency models with MA components," Discussion Papers 02/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    148. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    149. Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
    150. Tony Chernis & Calista Cheung & Gabriella Velasco, 2017. "A Three-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 17-8, Bank of Canada.
    151. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao & Rui-jun Su, 2022. "Application of the Real-Time Tourism Data in Nowcasting the Service Consumption in Taiwan," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 1-4.
    152. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    153. Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    154. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper series 35_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    155. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "Efficient estimation of approximate factor models via penalized maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 1-18.
    156. Daniel Baquero & Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador : Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    157. Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    158. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
    159. Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting inflation using high frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 664-675.
    160. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    161. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    162. Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
    163. Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2018. "Nowcasting Indian GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(2), pages 259-282, April.
    164. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2023. "Estimation of a dynamic multi-level factor model with possible long-range dependence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 405-430.
    165. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
    166. di Mauro, Filippo & Fornari, Fabio & Mannucci, Dario, 2011. "Stock market firm-level information and real economic activity," Working Paper Series 1366, European Central Bank.
    167. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices," Papers 2201.05556, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    168. Schumacher Christian, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
    169. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    170. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2018. "Implementing an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP Using Sensitivity Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 127-141, April.
    171. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data," Staff Reports 830, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    172. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    173. Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
    174. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS – A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
    175. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    176. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2019. "Efficient matrix approach for classical inference in state space models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 22-27.
    177. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    178. Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    179. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    180. Chen, Rong & Xiao, Han & Yang, Dan, 2021. "Autoregressive models for matrix-valued time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 539-560.
    181. Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    182. Giovanni Ballarin & Petros Dellaportas & Lyudmila Grigoryeva & Marcel Hirt & Sophie van Huellen & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2022. "Reservoir Computing for Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data," Papers 2211.00363, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    183. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Boriss Siliverstovs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014," KOF Working papers 14-353, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    184. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    185. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "ETLAnow: A Model for Forecasting with Big Data – Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches in Europe," ETLA Reports 54, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    186. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    187. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2022. "Nowcasting Real GDP for Saudi Arabia1," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 333-345, April.
    188. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
    189. Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
    190. James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2021. "Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19," Staff Working Papers 21-2, Bank of Canada.
    191. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    192. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-152/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    193. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    194. João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers w201502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    195. Jos Jansen, W. & Jin, Xiaowen & Winter, Jasper M. de, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," Munich Reprints in Economics 43488, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    196. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rots, Eyno, 2020. "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    197. Barış Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Nowcasting US GDP Using Tree-Based Ensemble Models and Dynamic Factors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 387-417, January.
    198. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, March.
    199. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    200. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    201. Łukasz Lenart & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2016. "Do market prices improve the accuracy of inflation forecasting in Poland? A disaggregated approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 365-394.
    202. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
    203. Jokubaitis, Saulius & Celov, Dmitrij & Leipus, Remigijus, 2021. "Sparse structures with LASSO through principal components: Forecasting GDP components in the short-run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 759-776.
    204. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
    205. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    206. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2020. "Tracking U.S. Real GDP Growth During the Pandemic," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 5(3), pages 9-14, September.
    207. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "Nowcasting Inflation," Working Papers 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    208. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    209. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "News, noise, and estimates of the \"true\" unobserved state of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    210. Bacchiocchi, Emanuele & Bastianin, Andrea & Missale, Alessandro & Rossi, Eduardo, 2020. "Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A model of US capital flows," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 427-443.
    211. Zhang, Yixiao & Yu, Cindy L. & Li, Haitao, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP Using Dynamic Factor Model with Unknown Number of Factors and Stochastic Volatility: A Bayesian Approach," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-93.
    212. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    213. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    214. Alain Kabundi & Elmarie Nel & Franz Ruch, 2016. "Nowcasting Real GDP growth in South Africa," Working Papers 581, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    215. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Forecasting Unemployment with Google Searches," ETLA Working Papers 35, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    216. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Combining forecasts from successive data vintages: An application to U.S. growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-74.
    217. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
    218. Tony Chernis & Taylor Webley, 2022. "Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations," Discussion Papers 2022-12, Bank of Canada.
    219. Skreta, Vasiliki & Giacomini, Raffaella & Gaglianone, Wagner & Issler, Joao, 2019. "Incentive-driven Inattention," CEPR Discussion Papers 13619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    220. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1403, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    221. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 237-252, April.
    222. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    223. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    224. Aleksandra Riedl & Julia Wörz, 2018. "A simple approach to nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 56-74.
    225. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    226. Filippo Ferroni & Benjamin Klaus, 2015. "Euro Area business cycles in turbulent times: convergence or decoupling?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3791-3815, July.
    227. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    228. James Sampi, 2016. "High Dimensional Factor Models: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Working Papers 75, Peruvian Economic Association.
    229. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    230. Hauber, Philipp, 2021. "How useful is external information from professional forecasters? Conditional forecasts in large factor models," EconStor Preprints 251469, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    231. Hess T. Chung & Bruce Fallick & Christopher J. Nekarda & David Ratner, 2015. "Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1438, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    232. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    233. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl & Gómez-Zamudio Luis M., 2017. "Are daily financial data useful for forecasting GDP? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017-17, Banco de México.
    234. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2018. "Nowcasting with payments system data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 366-376.
    235. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    236. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2022. "One Scheme Fits All: A Central Fiscal Capacity for the EMU Targeting Eurozone, National and Regional Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    237. Hecq, A.W. & Götz, T.B. & Urbain, J.R.Y.J., 2012. "Real-time forecast density combinations (forecasting US GDP growth using mixed-frequency data)," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    238. Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2022. "Monetary policy, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    239. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 217-234, August.
    240. Barsoum, Fady & Stankiewicz, Sandra, 2015. "Forecasting GDP growth using mixed-frequency models with switching regimes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50.
    241. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    242. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-019, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    243. Knut Are Aastveit & Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Density forecasts with MIDAS models," Working Paper 2014/10, Norges Bank.
    244. Bork, Lasse, 2009. "Estimating US Monetary Policy Shocks Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression: An EM Algorithm Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    245. Lee, Hangyu & Kim, Tae Bong, 2023. "The effectiveness of labor market indicators for conducting monetary policy: Evidence from the Korean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    246. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP \"Nowcasting\"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    247. Giannone, Domenico & D’Agostino, Antonello, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    248. Zhenzhong Wang & Zhengyuan Zhu & Cindy Yu, 2020. "Variable Selection in Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors," Papers 2007.10160, arXiv.org.
    249. Qiu, Yue, 2020. "Forecasting the Consumer Confidence Index with tree-based MIDAS regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 247-256.
    250. Rueben Ellul, 2016. "A real-time measure of business conditions in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    251. Ilkin Huseynov & Nazrin Ramazanova & Hikmat Valirzayev, 2022. "Using National Payment System Data to Nowcast Economic Activity in Azerbaijan," IHEID Working Papers 23-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    252. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    253. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    254. Laurent Ferrara & Anna Simoni, 2020. "When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage," Working Papers hal-04159714, HAL.
    255. Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Nowcasting and the Need for Timely Estimates of Movements in Irish Output," Research Notes RN2014/3/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    256. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    257. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2008. "A monthly indicator of Economic activity for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 31, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    258. João B. Assunção & Pedro Afonso Fernandes, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-15, August.
    259. Alvarez, Rocio & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2016. "Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 680-694.
    260. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    261. Dimpfl, Thomas & Langen, Tobias, 2015. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112921, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    262. Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    263. Grant Allan & Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & Paul Smith, 2019. "Nowcasting Using Mixed Frequency Methods: An Application to the Scottish Economy," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 12-45, September.
    264. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," CESifo Working Paper Series 3956, CESifo.
    265. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Veronese, Giovanni, 2011. "Tracking India Growth in Real Time," Working Papers 11/90, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    266. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    267. Marlene Amstad & Andreas M. Fischer, 2009. "Do macroeconomic announcements move inflation forecasts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 507-518.
    268. an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Das RWI-Kurzfristprognosemodell," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(2), pages 25-46.
    269. Gilbert, Thomas & Scotti, Chiara & Strasser, Georg & Vega, Clara, 2017. "Is the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic news announcement related to its asset price impact?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 78-95.
    270. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series 171, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    271. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    272. Heinisch, Katja, 2016. "A real-time analysis on the importance of hard and soft data for nowcasting German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145864, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    273. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    274. Philippe Wanner, 2021. "How well can we estimate immigration trends using Google data?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1181-1202, August.
    275. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    276. Mr. Serhat Solmaz & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2015. "How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy: Nowcasting an Emerging Market," IMF Working Papers 2015/269, International Monetary Fund.
    277. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    278. Marina Diakonova & Luis Molina & Hannes Mueller & Javier J. Pérez & Cristopher Rauh, 2022. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 2232, Banco de España.
    279. Sarun Kamolthip, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with LSTM and Mixed Frequency Time Series Data," PIER Discussion Papers 165, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    280. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    281. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    282. Hagher Ben Rhomdhane & Brahim Mehdi Benlallouna, 2022. "Nowcasting real GDP in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed-frequency models," IHEID Working Papers 02-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    283. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    284. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?," Papers 2007.13566, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    285. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2020. "Nowcasting Real Gdp For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202018, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2020.
    286. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    287. Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
    288. Bec, Frédérique & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Nowcasting French GDP in real-time with surveys and “blocked” regressions: Combining forecasts or pooling information?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1021-1042.
    289. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    290. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri & Saarinen, Lauri, 2017. "Nowcasting Finnish Turnover Indexes Using Firm-Level Data," ETLA Working Papers 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    291. Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    292. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    293. Adam Richardson & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder & Tugrul Vehbi, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    294. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
    295. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    296. Martin Solberger & Erik Spånberg, 2020. "Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 875-900, March.
    297. Guzman, Giselle C., 2010. "An inflation expectations horserace," MPRA Paper 36511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    298. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    299. Alifatussaadah, Ardiana & Primariesty, Anindya Diva & Soleh, Agus Mohamad & Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2019. "Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?," MPRA Paper 105252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    300. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
    301. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?," Working Paper 2014/13, Norges Bank.
    302. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    303. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    304. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
    305. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    306. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "New York FED Staff Nowcasts and Reality: What Can We Learn about the Future, the Present, and the Past?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, March.
    307. Linton, O. B. & Tang, H. & Wu, J., 2022. "A Structural Dynamic Factor Model for Daily Global Stock Market Returns," Janeway Institute Working Papers camjip:2214, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    308. Barnett, William A. & Tang, Biyan, 2015. "Chinese Divisia monetary index and GDP nowcasting," MPRA Paper 67691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    309. Daniel Hopp, 2021. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Papers 2106.08901, arXiv.org.
    310. Björn Roye, 2014. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 101-126, February.
    311. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
    312. Paolo Andreini & Cosimo Izzo & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "Deep Dynamic Factor Models," Papers 2007.11887, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    313. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    314. Valentina Aprigliano, 2020. "A large Bayesian VAR with a block‐specific shrinkage: A forecasting application for Italian industrial production," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1291-1304, December.
    315. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
    316. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    317. Mikosch, Heiner & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    318. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    319. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    320. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Why do forecasters disagree? Lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 803-820, October.
    321. Issler, João Victor & Notini, Hilton Hostalácio, 2014. "Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 757, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    322. Sayag, Doron & Ben-hur, Dano & Pfeffermann, Danny, 2022. "Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 253-266.
    323. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    324. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    325. Ruoxuan Xiong & Markus Pelger, 2019. "Large Dimensional Latent Factor Modeling with Missing Observations and Applications to Causal Inference," Papers 1910.08273, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    326. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Paper Series 1275, European Central Bank.
    327. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    328. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    329. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES 2009_021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    330. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    331. Neville Francis & Eric Ghysels & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The low-frequency impact of daily monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 2011-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    332. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.
    333. Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: The New Forecast Standard of the ifo Institute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
    334. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    335. Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar, 2020. "Including news data in forecasting macro economic performance of China," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 585-611, December.
    336. Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2019. "Short‐term forecasts of economic activity: Are fortnightly factors useful?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 207-221, April.
    337. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    338. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
    339. Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5522, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    340. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    341. Millo, Giovanni, 2017. "A simple randomization test for spatial correlation in the presence of common factors and serial correlation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 28-38.
    342. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Nowcasting GDP: Electronic Payments, Data Vintages and the Timing of Data Releases," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-25, CIRANO.
    343. Tony Chernis & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment," Discussion Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    344. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    345. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    346. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    347. Pedro Galeano & Daniel Peña, 2019. "Data science, big data and statistics," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(2), pages 289-329, June.
    348. Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012. "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 21-31.
    349. Mäkinen, Mikko, 2016. "Nowcasting of Russian GDP growth," BOFIT Policy Briefs 4/2016, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    350. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    351. Fatehkia, Masoomali & Kashyap, Ridhi & Weber, Ingmar, 2018. "Using Facebook Ad Data to Track the Global Digital Gender Gap," SocArXiv rkvb3, Center for Open Science.
    352. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    353. Anesti, Nikoleta & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George, 2021. "Forecasting UK GDP growth with large survey panels," Bank of England working papers 923, Bank of England.
    354. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    355. Domit, Sílvia & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1669-1678.
    356. André Binette & Tony Chernis & Daniel de Munnik, 2017. "Global Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACE," Discussion Papers 17-2, Bank of Canada.
    357. Robert Ambrisko, 2022. "Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables Using High-Frequency Fiscal Data," Working Papers 2022/5, Czech National Bank.
    358. Francisco Corona & Graciela González-Farías & Pedro Orraca, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for the Mexican economy: are common trends useful when predicting economic activity?," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, December.
    359. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    360. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Missale & Eduardo Rossi, 2018. "Structural analysis with mixed-frequency data: A MIDAS-SVAR model of US capital flows," Papers 1802.00793, arXiv.org.
    361. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
    362. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    363. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    364. Bianconi, Marcelo & Hua, Xiaxin & Tan, Chih Ming, 2015. "Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 352-368.
    365. Avellán, Guillermo & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Salcedo, Juan José, 2020. "A Streamlined Procedure to Construct a Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index with an Application to the Ecuadorian Economy," MPRA Paper 102593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    366. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization Institute Working Papers 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    367. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    368. Dorinth van Dijk & Jasper de Winter, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics: Evidence from the financial press," Working Papers 766, DNB.
    369. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Forecasting daily electricity prices with monthly macroeconomic variables," Working Paper Series 2250, European Central Bank.
    370. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
    371. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    372. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Should Forecasters Use Real‐Time Data to Evaluate Leading Indicator Models for GDP Prediction? German Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 170-200, November.
    373. Sean P. Grover & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael W. McCracken, 2016. "A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(4), pages 277-296.
    374. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    375. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    376. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    377. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    378. Alain Kabundi & Asithandile Mbelu, 2021. "Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1817-1844, April.
    379. Cecilia Frale & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2010. "Survey data as coincident or leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 109-131.
    380. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Papers 2209.00948, arXiv.org.
    381. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
    382. Steffen Henzel & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Machbarkeit von Kurzfristprognosen für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(04), pages 21-25, August.
    383. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2018. "Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    384. Franco, Ray John Gabriel & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "The Dynamics of Inflation and GDP Growth: A Mixed Frequency Model Approach," MPRA Paper 55858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    385. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    386. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etienne, 2021. "An automated approach towards sparse single-equation cointegration modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 247-276.
    387. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
    388. Lorenzo Donadio & Rossano Schifanella & Claudia R Binder & Emanuele Massaro, 2021. "Leveraging insurance customer data to characterize socioeconomic indicators of Swiss municipalities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, March.
    389. Xiong, Ruoxuan & Pelger, Markus, 2023. "Large dimensional latent factor modeling with missing observations and applications to causal inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 271-301.
    390. Jose M. Carabias, 2018. "The real-time information content of macroeconomic news: implications for firm-level earnings expectations," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 136-166, March.
    391. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    392. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2015. "Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors," Working Papers 2015-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    393. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
    394. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & Michael Fogarty & Ezra Karger & Spencer D. Krane, 2021. "Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade," Working Paper Series WP-2021-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    395. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    396. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    397. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
    398. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    399. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2021. "Determining Number of Factors in Dynamic Factor Models Contributing to GDP Nowcasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-23, November.
    400. Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Philip Liu & Andrea M. Maechler & Chris Marsh & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2012. "Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 2012/246, International Monetary Fund.
    401. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    402. Heilemann Ullrich & Schnorr-Bäcker Susanne, 2017. "Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 29-62, February.
    403. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
    404. Baris Soybilgen, 2017. "Identifying Us Business Cycle Regimes Using Factor Augmented Neural Network Models," Working Papers 1703, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    405. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
    406. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    407. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.
    408. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
    409. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
    410. Smith Paul, 2016. "Nowcasting UK GDP during the depression," Working Papers 1606, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    411. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    412. Mahmut Gunay, 2018. "Nowcasting Annual Turkish GDP Growth with MIDAS," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    413. Мекенбаева Камила // Mekenbayeva Kamila & Karel Musil, 2017. "Система прогнозирования в Национальном Банке Казахстана: наукаст на основа опросов // Forecasting system at the National Bank of Kazakhstan: survey-based nowcasting," Working Papers #2017-1, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    414. Kakuho Furukawa & Ryohei Hisano, 2022. "A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    415. Camacho, Maximo, 2013. "Mixed-frequency VAR models with Markov-switching dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 369-373.
    416. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2021. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2102.11780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    417. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    418. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    419. Jo~ao B. Assunc{c}~ao & Pedro Afonso Fernandes, 2022. "Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data," Papers 2206.06823, arXiv.org.
    420. Neville Francis, 2012. "The Low-Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shock," 2012 Meeting Papers 198, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    421. Holtemöller, Oliver & Kozyrev, Boris, 2023. "Forecasting Economic Activity with a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277688, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    422. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Measuring economic integration: the case of Asian economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 136-158, Bank for International Settlements.
    423. Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    424. Carlos León & Fabio Ortega, 2018. "Nowcasting economic activity with electronic payments data: A predictive modeling approach," Borradores de Economia 1037, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    425. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
    426. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Moritz Schularick & Jonas Zdrzalek, 2023. "German Real Estate Index (GREIX)," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 231, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    427. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    428. Weigand Roland & Wanger Susanne & Zapf Ines, 2018. "Factor Structural Time Series Models for Official Statistics with an Application to Hours Worked in Germany," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 265-301, March.
    429. Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    430. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    431. David J. Hand, 2018. "Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 555-605, June.
    432. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
    433. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    434. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2014. "2007-2013: This is what the indicator told us ? Evaluating the performance of real-time nowcasts from a dynamic factor model," BCL working papers 88, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    435. Rafael Ravnik, 2014. "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP under Structural Changes," Working Papers 40, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    436. Michele Modugno & Bariş Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    437. D'Elia, Enrico, 2010. "Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates," MPRA Paper 36070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    438. Zhemkov, Michael, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 10-24.
    439. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    440. George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2010. "Estimating time variation in measurement error from data revisions: an application to backcasting and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 869-893.
    441. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    442. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    443. Ruey Yau & C. James Hueng, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth for Small Open Economies with a Mixed-Frequency Structural Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 177-198, June.
    444. Seabold,Skipper & Coppola,Andrea, 2015. "Nowcasting prices using Google trends : an application to Central America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7398, The World Bank.
    445. Zhang, Yaotian & Feng, Mingming & Shang, Ke-ke & Ran, Yijun & Wang, Cheng-Jun, 2022. "Peeking strategy for online news diffusion prediction via machine learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).
    446. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    447. Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Juan-Pablo Ortega, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Post-Print hal-01385941, HAL.
    448. Matteo Barigozzi & Filippo Pellegrino, 2023. "Multidimensional dynamic factor models," Papers 2301.12499, arXiv.org.
    449. Pirschel, Inske, 2016. "Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time," Kiel Working Papers 2020, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    450. Venera Tomaselli & Giovanni Giuffrida & Simona Gozzo & Francesco Mazzeo Rinaldi, 2020. "Building Decision-making Indicators Through Network Analysis of Big Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 33-49, August.
    451. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    452. Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2017. "Dissecting models' forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 294-299.
    453. Schumacher, Christian, 2016. "A comparison of MIDAS and bridge equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 257-270.
    454. David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
    455. Knut Are Aastveit & Andr� K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Papers No 8/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    456. Su, Liangjun & Miao, Ke & Jin, Sainan, 2019. "On Factor Models with Random Missing: EM Estimation, Inference, and Cross Validation," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 4-2019, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    457. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    458. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    459. Benedikt Maas, 2020. "Short‐term forecasting of the US unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 394-411, April.
    460. Sarah Gelper & Christophe Croux, 2010. "On the Construction of the European Economic Sentiment Indicator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 47-62, February.
    461. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Working Papers 1204, Banco de España.
    462. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    463. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    464. M. Elshendy & A. Fronzetti Colladon & E. Battistoni & P. A. Gloor, 2021. "Using four different online media sources to forecast the crude oil price," Papers 2105.09154, arXiv.org.
    465. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2018. "A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP," Discussion Papers 10/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    466. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Papers 1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    467. Peter Fuleky & Carl, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 2013-5, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    468. Davor Kunovac, 2007. "Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 371-393.
    469. Tomas Adam & Filip Novotny, 2018. "Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018/18, Czech National Bank.
    470. Loermann, Julius & Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting US GDP with artificial neural networks," MPRA Paper 95459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    471. Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2011/043, International Monetary Fund.
    472. Resce, Giuliano & Maynard, Diana, 2018. "What matters most to people around the world? Retrieving Better Life Index priorities on Twitter," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 61-75.
    473. Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & David Kelley, 2019. "A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 1, pages 1-30.
    474. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2022. "Real Time Indicators During the COVID-19 Pandemic Individual Predictors & Selection," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-15, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    475. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    476. Qian Chen & Xiang Gao & Shan Xie & Li Sun & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2021. "On the Predictability of China Macro Indicator with Carbon Emissions Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    477. Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    478. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    479. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Daniel Sacks & Boyoung Seo, 2020. "Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims," Working Paper Series WP-2020-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 16 Apr 2020.
    480. António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    481. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2011. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 201110, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    482. Linton, O. B. & Tang, H. & Wu, J., 2022. "A Structural Dynamic Factor Model for Daily Global Stock Market Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2237, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    483. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    484. Ch. Piette & G. Langenus, 2014. "Using BREL to nowcast the Belgian business cycle: the role of survey data," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 75-98, June.
    485. Hopp Daniel, 2022. "Economic Nowcasting with Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks (LSTM)," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 847-873, September.
    486. Follett, Lendie & Yu, Cindy, 2019. "Achieving parsimony in Bayesian vector autoregressions with the horseshoe prior," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 130-144.
    487. Monica Defend & Aleksey Min & Lorenzo Portelli & Franz Ramsauer & Francesco Sandrini & Rudi Zagst, 2021. "Quantifying Drivers of Forecasted Returns Using Approximate Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Frequency Panel Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, February.
    488. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
    489. Abberger, Klaus & Graff, Michael & Siliverstovs, Boriss & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "Using rule-based updating procedures to improve the performance of composite indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-144.
    490. Kyosuke Chikamatsu, Naohisa Hirakata, Yosuke Kido, Kazuki Otaka, 2018. "Nowcasting Japanese GDPs," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    491. Ankargren Sebastian & Unosson Måns & Yang Yukai, 2020. "A Flexible Mixed-Frequency Vector Autoregression with a Steady-State Prior," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-41, July.
    492. Jeffrey C. Chen & Abe Dunn & Kyle Hood & Alexander Driessen & Andrea Batch, 2019. "Off to the Races: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Alternative Data for Predicting Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 373-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    493. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    494. Etienne Farvaque & Florence Huart, 2016. "A policymaker's guide to a Euro area stabilization fund," Post-Print hal-01526022, HAL.
    495. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    496. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2009. "Using Real-Time Output Gaps To Examine Past And Future Policy Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 98-110, October.
    497. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    498. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    499. Samuel N. Cohen & Silvia Lui & Will Malpass & Giulia Mantoan & Lars Nesheim & 'Aureo de Paula & Andrew Reeves & Craig Scott & Emma Small & Lingyi Yang, 2023. "Nowcasting with signature methods," Papers 2305.10256, arXiv.org.
    500. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Jäger, Philipp & Jessen, Robin & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2018. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung setzt sich fort, Gefährdungen nehmen zu," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(3), pages 21-56.
    501. Elena Andreou & Andros Kourtellos, 2015. "The State and the Future of Cyprus Macroeconomic Forecasting," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 73-90, June.
    502. Luke Mosley & Tak-Shing Chan & Alex Gibberd, 2023. "sparseDFM: An R Package to Estimate Dynamic Factor Models with Sparse Loadings," Papers 2303.14125, arXiv.org.
    503. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    504. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    505. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 970, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    506. Spencer D. Krane, 2011. "Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 184-211, January.
    507. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Nowcasting using news topics. Big Data versus big bank," Working Paper 2016/20, Norges Bank.
    508. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
    509. Christiana Anaxagorou & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2022. "Forecasting economic activity using preselected predictors: the case of Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 16(1), pages 11-36, June.
    510. Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao, 2022. "Nowcasting the GDP in Taiwan and the Real-Time Tourism Data," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 1-2.
    511. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    512. Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I.Ethem, 2019. "Local currency bond risk premia: A panel evidence on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 182-196.
    513. Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    514. Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
    515. Filippo di Mauro & Filippo di Mauro, Fabio Fornari, 2014. "Going granular: The importance of firm-level equity information in anticipating economic activity," EcoMod2014 6809, EcoMod.
    516. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    517. Bulligan, Guido & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 188-206.
    518. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields & Zheng Wang, 2012. "Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(283), pages 495-516, December.
    519. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting industrial production: the role of information and methods," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 227-235, Bank for International Settlements.
    520. Fornaro, Paolo, 2016. "Predicting Finnish economic activity using firm-level data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 10-19.
    521. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Consumption in Real Time: The Role of Consumer Confidence Surveys," Discussion Papers 12-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    522. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    523. Jon Ellingsen & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers No 08/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    524. Bryan T. Kelly & Asaf Manela & Alan Moreira, 2019. "Text Selection," NBER Working Papers 26517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    525. Guillermo Avellán & Manuel González-Astudillo & Juan José Salcedo Cruz, 2022. "Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1517-1542, April.
    526. Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.
    527. Soybilgen, Baris, 2018. "Identifying US business cycle regimes using dynamic factors and neural network models," MPRA Paper 94715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    528. Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
    529. Charles A. Fleischman & John M. Roberts, 2011. "From many series, one cycle: improved estimates of the business cycle from a multivariate unobserved components model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    530. Ángel Cuevas & Enrique Quilis, 2012. "A factor analysis for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 311-338, September.
    531. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
    532. Joshua Chan, 2023. "BVARs and Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2310.14438, arXiv.org.
    533. Chikamatsu, Kyosuke & Hirakata, Naohisa & Kido, Yosuke & Otaka, Kazuki, 2021. "Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    534. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: identification, estimation, and forecasting," Textos para discussão 521, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    535. Gabriel Mathy & Yongchen Zhao, 2023. "Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression?," Working Papers 2023-05, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
    536. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    537. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    538. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Does information help recovering fundamental structural shocks from past observations?," Macroeconomics 0511017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    539. Samvel S. Lazaryan & Nikita E. German, 2018. "Forecasting Current GDP Dynamics With Google Search Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 83-94, December.
    540. Francisco Corona & Graciela Gonz'alez-Far'ias & Jes'us L'opez-P'erez, 2021. "A nowcasting approach to generate timely estimates of Mexican economic activity: An application to the period of COVID-19," Papers 2101.10383, arXiv.org.
    541. Michael Pfarrhofer, 2020. "Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions," Papers 2004.04984, arXiv.org.
    542. Rueben Ellul & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    543. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "A comparison of mixed frequency approaches for nowcasting Euro area macroeconomic aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 554-568.
    544. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    545. Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "Nowcasting Peruvian GDP using Leading Indicators and Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 2018-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    546. Yan Leng & Nakash Ali Babwany & Alex Pentland, 2021. "Unraveling the association between socioeconomic diversity and consumer price index in a tourism country," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    547. Daniel Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock, 2020. "U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," NBER Working Papers 26954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    548. Satoshi Urasawa, 2023. "The Usefulness of High-Frequency Alternative Data to Obtain Nowcasts for Japan’s GDP: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 191-211, September.
    549. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the Business Cycle in a Multi-Frequency and Data-Rich Environment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(3), pages 360-384, June.
    550. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    551. Emilio Blanco & Fiorella Dogliolo & Lorena Garegnani, 2022. "Nowcasting during the Pandemic: Lessons from Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 202299, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    552. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    553. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "Extracting information on economic activity from business and consumer surveys in an emerging economy (Chile)," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(3), pages 098-131, December.
    554. Paolo Fornaro & Henri Luomaranta, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish real economic activity: a machine learning approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 55-71, January.
    555. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent, 2008. "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models," Working Paper Series 894, European Central Bank.
    556. Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
    557. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Asymptotic equivalence of Principal Components and Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimators in Large Approximate Factor Models," Papers 2307.09864, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    558. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    559. Han Liu & Yongjing Wang & Haiyan Song & Ying Liu, 2023. "Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1302-1327, August.
    560. Iyer , Tara & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2019. "Nowcasting Economic Growth in India: The Role of Rainfall," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 593, Asian Development Bank.
    561. Fatehkia, Masoomali & Kashyap, Ridhi & Weber, Ingmar, 2018. "Using Facebook ad data to track the global digital gender gap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 189-209.
    562. Conefrey, Thomas & Walsh, Graeme, 2018. "A Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for Ireland," Economic Letters 14/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    563. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    564. Ard Reijer & Andreas Johansson, 2019. "Nowcasting Swedish GDP with a large and unbalanced data set," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1351-1373, October.
    565. Guzman, Giselle C., 2011. "The case for higher frequency inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 36656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    566. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    567. Stephen L. France & Yuying Shi, 2017. "Aggregating Google Trends: Multivariate Testing and Analysis," Papers 1712.03152, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    568. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Post-Print halshs-00344839, HAL.
    569. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    570. Herman Stekler & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Working Papers 2016-15, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2016.
    571. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2019. "Interpreting Big Data in the Macro Economy: A Bayesian Mixed Frequency Estimator," CEERP Working Paper Series 010, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
    572. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Post-Print halshs-00460461, HAL.
    573. Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    574. Dimitra Lamprou, 2015. "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 85-100.
    575. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    576. Sean P. Grover & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Factor-based prediction of industry-wide bank stress," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(2), pages 173-194.
    577. Blasques, F. & Koopman, S.J. & Mallee, M. & Zhang, Z., 2016. "Weighted maximum likelihood for dynamic factor analysis and forecasting with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 405-417.
    578. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    579. Lopez-Buenache, German, 2019. "The evolution of monetary policy effectiveness under macroeconomic instability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 221-233.
    580. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
    581. Barış Soybilgen & M. Ege Yazgan & Hüseyin Kaya, 2023. "Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 171-190, September.
    582. Kitlinski, Tobias & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "The role of targeted predictors for nowcasting GDP with bridge models: Application to the Euro area," Ruhr Economic Papers 559, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    583. Jeffrey Sheen & Stefan Trück & Ben Zhe Wang, 2015. "Daily Business and External Condition Indices for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 38-53, June.
    584. Ryan T. Ball & Eric Ghysels, 2018. "Automated Earnings Forecasts: Beat Analysts or Combine and Conquer?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4936-4952, October.
    585. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. ""Nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth with machine-learning sentiment indicators"," IREA Working Papers 202103, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2021.
    586. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Economic Cycles and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    587. Leippold, Markus & Yang, Hanlin, 2019. "Particle filtering, learning, and smoothing for mixed-frequency state-space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 25-41.
    588. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    589. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    590. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Economic Upswing in Germany - Major Decisions Facing Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(20), pages 03-61, October.
    591. France, Stephen L. & Shi, Yuying & Kazandjian, Brett, 2021. "Web Trends: A valuable tool for business research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 666-679.
    592. Byron Botha & Geordie Reid & Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2021. "Nowcasting South African GDP using a suite of statistical models," Working Papers 11001, South African Reserve Bank.
    593. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    594. Economides, Philip & Nikolaishvili, Giorgi, 2023. "Measuring economic activity in the presence of superstar MNEs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    595. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    596. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    597. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.

  57. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2004. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," CEPR Discussion Papers 4610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "Capital Mobility in Russia," MPRA Paper 59013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    3. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks," MPRA Paper 15312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès, 2012. "Changing patterns of fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 845-873.
    5. Alex Bowen & Emanuele Campiglio & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Perspective On Climate Change Mitigation: Meeting The Financing Challenge," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-35.
    6. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank.
    7. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2015. "Savings, the size of the net foreign asset position, and the dynamics of current accounts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 353-370.
    8. Saten Kumar & Rahul Sen & Sadhana Srivastava, 2014. "Does Economic Integration Stimulate Capital Mobility? An Analysis of Four Regional Economic Communities in Africa," Working Papers 2014-05, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    9. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2016. "Finance and Synchronization," Discussion Papers 1622, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Peter Fuleky & L Ventura & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing," Working Papers 201315, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    11. Anastasios Mastroyiannis, 2007. "Current Account Dynamics and the Feldstein and Horioka Puzzle: the Case of Greece," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 91-99, June.
    12. Lenza, Michele, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Markus Brueckner & Wojtek Paczos & Evi Pappa, 2020. "On the Relationship between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1071-1106, August.
    14. Liangjun Su & Sainan Jin & Yonghui Zhang, 2014. "Specification Test for Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed Effects," Working Papers 08-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    15. Ambaye, Guesh Gebremeske & Berhanu, T. & Abera, G., 2013. "Modeling the Determinats of Domestic Private Investments in Ethiopia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 2013/159, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Zubarev, Andrei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: modern aspects," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 54-73, August.
    19. Kateřina Šímová, 2020. "Verification of Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (Example of European Union Countries) [Verifikace Feldsteinovy-Horiokovy hádanky (příklad zemí Evropské unie)]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(2), pages 43-60.
    20. Clancy, Daragh & Ricci, Lorenzo, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 208-229.
    21. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2020. "Capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries: new evidence from dynamic common correlated effects panel data modeling," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    22. Pavel Trunin & Andrey Zubarev, 2013. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Modern Aspects," Working Papers 0070, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2013.
    23. Fischer, Andreas & Amstad, Marlene, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Daily Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 5008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2014. "Re-examining the Feldstein–Horioka and Sachs' views of capital mobility: A heterogeneous panel setup," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-11.
    25. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2009. "A Time Series Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 18464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Robin W. Boadway & Jean-François Tremblay, 2016. "Modernizing Business Taxation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 452, May.
    27. Harald Oberhofer & Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl & Peter Huber & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Nowotny & Michael Pfaffermayr & Monique Ebell & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2016. "Single Market Transmission Mechanisms Before, During and After the 2008-09 Crisis. A Quantitative Assessment," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59156, April.
    28. Hwang, Sun Ho & Kim, Yun Jung, 2018. "Capital mobility in OECD countries: A multi-level factor approach to saving–investment correlations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 150-159.
    29. John C. Bluedorn, 2005. "Hurricanes: Intertemporal Trade and Capital Shocks," Economics Series Working Papers 241, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Sal AMIRKHALKHALI & Atul DAR, 2020. "Saving-Investment-Current Accounts Dynamics, Financial Crisis And Economic Growth: Some Empirical Results," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(2), pages 47-56.
    31. Joe Garmondyu Greaves, 2018. "Investigating Saving and Investment Relationship: Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 89-104.
    32. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates and Risk Premia in Open Economy," IHEID Working Papers 05-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    33. Costantini, Mauro & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2013. "Capital mobility and global factor shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 513-515.
    34. Laura Jaramillo & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/264, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2021. "Inferential theory for heterogeneity and cointegration in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 474-503.
    36. Ginama, Isamu & Hayakawa, Kazuhiko & Kanmei, Takahiro, 2018. "Examining the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle using common factor panels and interval estimation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 11-21.
    37. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    38. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Zarangas, Leonidas, 2017. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle still with us? National saving-investment dynamics and international capital mobility: A panel data analysis across EU member countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 76-88.
    39. Andrea R. Lamorgese & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2006. "Intercity interactions: evidence from the US," 2006 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    41. Sal AMIRKHALKHALI & Atul DAR, 2016. "Public Debt, Saving-Investment-Current Account Dynamics, and Capital Mobility in OECD countries, 1999-2013," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 5-12.
    42. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2023. "Uniform inference in linear panel data models with two-dimensional heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 694-719.
    43. Navrotska Nataliia, 2013. "Main tendencies of globalisation of savings and investments in the world economy," The Problems of Economy, RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), issue 2, pages 12-19.
    44. Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Muñoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "The rise and fall of global financial flows in EU 15: new evidence using dynamic panels with common correlated effects," Working Papers 2212, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

  58. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "Euro area and US recessions: 1970-2003," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6405, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Cited by:

    1. Heather M. Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Financial Data for the Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 152, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Business Cycles in the euro Area," Working Papers ECARES 2008_040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R. Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Constructing Historical Euro Area Data," CAMA Working Papers 2007-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Mirko Abbritti; Sebastian Weber, 2008. "Labor Market Rigidities and the Business Cycle: Price vs. Quantity Restricting Institutions," IHEID Working Papers 01-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2008.
    5. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    6. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    7. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    8. Marco Lombardi & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/241, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Lenza, Michele, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1010, European Central Bank.
    10. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    11. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.

  59. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    2. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "A New Approach to Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation with an Application to Large-Scale Macroeconometric Modelling," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 28, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    4. In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2019. "Model selection for factor analysis: Some new criteria and performance comparisons," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 577-596, July.
    5. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2006. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics: a Factor Vector Autoregressive Approach," ICER Working Papers 41-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    6. Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    8. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    9. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.
    11. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    12. Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Luca Sala, "undated". "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10177, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany: a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Belviso Francesco & Milani Fabio, 2006. "Structural Factor-Augmented VARs (SFAVARs) and the Effects of Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-46, December.
    17. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    18. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    19. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank.
    20. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    21. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    22. Boivin, J. & Giannoni, M., 2007. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Working papers 162, Banque de France.
    23. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    24. David Navrátil, 2004. "Systematická složka měnové politiky ČNB v režimu cílování inflace [Systematic part of CNB's monetary policy in inflation targeting regime]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(5), pages 623-636.
    25. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George, 2006. "Impulse Response Functions from Structural Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1204, CESifo.
    27. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2009. "Patterns of co-movement between a developed and emerging market economy: The case of South Africa and Germany," Working Papers 159, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    28. Erdemlioglu, Deniz, 2009. "Macro Factors in UK Excess Bond Returns: Principal Components and Factor-Model Approach," MPRA Paper 28895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Ansgar Belke & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Back to the rules," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 268/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    30. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    31. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    32. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    33. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    34. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Andreas Fischer & Marlene Amstad, 2004. "Sequential Information Flow and Real-Time Diagnosis of Swiss Inflation: Intra-Monthly DCF Estimates for a Low-Inflation Environment," Working Papers 04.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    36. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Olivier Bandt & Catherine Bruneau & Alexis Flageollet, 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 95-120, Springer.
    39. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Massimiliano Serati & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Building composite leading indexes in a dynamic factor model framework: a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 212, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    41. Sandra Eickmeier, 2009. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary dynamic factor model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 933-959.
    42. MOLTENI, Francesco, PAPPA, Evi, 2017. "The Combination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: A TVP-FAVAR Approach," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/13, European University Institute.
    43. In Choi & Dukpa Kim & Yun Jung Kim & Noh‐Sun Kwark, 2018. "A multilevel factor model: Identification, asymptotic theory and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 355-377, April.
    44. In Choi, 2011. "Efficient Estimation of Nonstationary Factor Models," Working Papers 1101, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy), revised Jun 2011.
    45. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Factor vector autoregressive estimation: a new approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 15-23, June.
    46. Benoit Mojon, 2007. "Monetary policy, output composition and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series WP-07-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    47. Romain Houssa, 2004. "Monetary Union in West Africa and Asymmetric Shocks: A Dynamic Structural Factor Model Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0409063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Fladung, Michael, 2007. "Spill-over effects of monetary policy: a progress report on interest rate convergence in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,27, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    49. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Alain N. Kabundi & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2009. "Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 2009/231, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. McCallum, Andrew & Smets, Frank, 2007. "Real wages and monetary policy transmission in the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1360, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    52. Alain Kabundi & Elsabé Loots, 2010. "Patterns Of Co‐Movement Between South Africa And Germany: Evidence From The Period 1985 To 2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 383-399, December.
    53. Blaes, Barno, 2009. "Money and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: evidence from FAVAR- and VAR approaches," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    54. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    55. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    56. Abdullah Al-Hassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2009/073, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    58. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    59. Tais Carestiato Da Silva & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2011. "Setting The Interest Rate For Twooutlier Countries," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 207, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

  60. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca & Giannone, Domenico, 2002. "VARs, Common Factors and the Empirical Validation of Equilibrium Business Cycle Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Luca Sala & Luca Gambetti & Mario Forni, 2016. "VAR Information and the Empirical Validation of DSGE Models," 2016 Meeting Papers 260, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2007. "Productivity and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2007-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Bodnar, Taras & Reiß, Markus, 2016. "Exact and asymptotic tests on a factor model in low and large dimensions with applications," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 125-151.
    5. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009. "A Robust Criterion for Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES 2009_023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Minxian Yang, 2017. "Effects of idiosyncratic shocks on macroeconomic time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1441-1461, December.
    10. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
    11. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen, 2017. "Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models," CREATES Research Papers 2017-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2020. "Common Components Structural VARs," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 147, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-013, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    15. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS – A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
    16. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2018. "Fundamentalness, Granger Causality and Aggregation," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 139, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    18. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank.
    19. Simon Freyaldenhoven, 2017. "A Generalized Factor Model with Local Factors," 2017 Papers pfr361, Job Market Papers.
    20. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    21. Francesco Lamperti, 2018. "Empirical validation of simulated models through the GSL-div: an illustrative application," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(1), pages 143-171, April.
    22. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2007. "RBCs and DSGEs:The Computational Approach to Business Cycle Theory and Evidence," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    23. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2008. "Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models with global and group-specific factors," Working Papers w200809, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    25. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2006. "Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Working Papers ECARES 2008_012, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    27. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 850.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    28. Dias Francisco & Rua António & Pinheiro Maximiano, 2013. "Determining the number of global and country-specific factors in the euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 573-617, December.
    29. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    30. Lamperti, Francesco, 2018. "An information theoretic criterion for empirical validation of simulation models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 83-106.
    31. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2009. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 1135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
    32. Gregor B urle, 2008. "Priors from DSGE Models for Dynamic Factor Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0803, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    33. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Forni, Mario, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    35. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    36. Alessi, Lucia & Barigozzi, Matteo & Capasso, Marco, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank.
    37. AMMOURI, Bilel & TOUMI, Hassen & Zitouna, Habib, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model," MPRA Paper 65514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    39. rea cipollini & giuseppe missaglia, 2005. "Business cycle effects on Portfolio Credit Risk: scenario generation through Dynamic Factor analysis," Finance 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Kyriaki-Argyro Tsioptsia & Eleni Zafeiriou & Dimitrios Niklis & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "The Corporate Economic Performance of Environmentally Eligible Firms Nexus Climate Change: An Empirical Research in a Bayesian VAR Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    41. Raffaella Giacomini, 2013. "The relationship between DSGE and VAR models," CeMMAP working papers 21/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    42. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    43. Francesco Lamperti, 2016. "Empirical Validation of Simulated Models through the GSL-div: an Illustrative Application," LEM Papers Series 2016/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    44. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    45. Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
    46. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    47. Dupaigne, Martial & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Employment: Do We Really Need DSGE Models with a Fall in Hours?," IDEI Working Papers 349, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    48. Francesco Lamperti, 2015. "An Information Theoretic Criterion for Empirical Validation of Time Series Models," LEM Papers Series 2015/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    49. Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    50. Zhao Zhao & Guowei Cui & Shaoping Wang, 2017. "A Monte Carlo comparison of estimating the number of dynamic factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1217-1241, November.
    51. Dordonnat, Virginie & Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius, 2012. "Dynamic factors in periodic time-varying regressions with an application to hourly electricity load modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3134-3152.

Articles

  1. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021. "Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2021. "Multimodality In Macrofinancial Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 861-886, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2019. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 137-173, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2019. "Priors for the Long Run," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 565-580, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. A. Colangelo & D. Giannone & M. Lenza & H. Pill & L. Reichlin, 2017. "The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 247-265, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    2. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    3. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 8178, CESifo.
    4. Andreas Beyer & Benoît Coeuré & Caterina Mendicino, 2017. "Foreword – The crisis, ten years after: Lessons learnt for monetary and financial research," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 45-64.

  14. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 952-964, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2016. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 201-215.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 472-485, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2015. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 739-756.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015. "Optimal combination of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 467-486, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2010. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 103-117.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Simonelli, Saverio, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 90-97, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-686, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Tomáš Slacík & Katharina Steiner & Julia Wörz, 2014. "Can Trade Partners Help Better FORCEE the Future? Impact of Trade Linkages on Economic Growth Forecasts in Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 36-56.
    2. Arnold Zellner & Jacques Kibambe Ngoie, 2015. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 56-81, February.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    4. Florian Huber & Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions," ERSA conference papers ersa14p25, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Gregor Bäurle & Elizabeth Steiner & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "Forecasting the production side of GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 458-480, April.
    6. Helmut Herwartz, 2011. "Forecast accuracy and uncertainty in applied econometrics: a recommendation of specific-to-general predictor selection," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 487-510, October.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Bai, Yu & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context," CEPR Discussion Papers 16994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2014. "Forecasting with Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive Models: A Comparison of Priors," Working Papers 189, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    9. Camehl, Annika, 2023. "Penalized estimation of panel vector autoregressive models: A panel LASSO approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1185-1204.

  34. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2009. "Business cycles in the euro area," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 5-7.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 318-328, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 621-633, 04-05.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. Domenico Giannone & Troy D. Matheson, 2007. "A New Core Inflation Indicator for New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 145-180, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2006. "VARs, common factors and the empirical validation of equilibrium business cycle models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 257-279, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global Trends in Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2018, pages 248-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2010. "The Feldstein-Horioka Fact," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 103-117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Domenico Giannone, 2010. "Comment on "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 180-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2013. "Time‐Varying Dynamics Of The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 498-525, April.
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.

  6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.