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The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Zimmermann, Kaspar

Abstract

This paper estimates the expected return on equity and housing for 17 advanced economies between years 1870 and 2015. We show that the expected risky return has been in steady decline, but its trend is markedly different to that in the safe rate. As a consequence, the ex ante risk premium exhibits large secular movements, and risk premia and safe rates are strongly negatively correlated. Our findings suggest that time-varying risk appetite is a key driver of expected risky and safe returns - not only in the short, but also in the long run.

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  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15610
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 527-552.
    2. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Superstar Returns," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881493, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected returns; Risk premia; Real interest rates; Return predictability; Long-run trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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