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How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals

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  • Daniel L. Greenwald
  • Martin Lettau
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson

Abstract

Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per-capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%), and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952 to 1988 experienced only one third as much growth in market equity, but economic growth accounted for more than 100% of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Greenwald & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2019. "How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 25769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25769
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Leila Davis & Shane McCormack, 2021. "Industrial stagnation and the financialization of nonfinancial corporations," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 459-491, December.
    4. ADACHI Daisuke & SAITO Yukiko, 2020. "Multinational Production and Labor Share," Discussion papers 20012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Robert N. Mefford, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Productivity Paradox," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 7(1), pages 11-18, November.
    6. Luis Bauluz & Filip Novokmet & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Global Saving Glut," Working Papers halshs-03693216, HAL.
    7. Josue Cox & Daniel L. Greenwald & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2020. "What Explains the COVID-19 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 27784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2020. "The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
    10. Isabel Cairó & Jae W. Sim, 2020. "Market Power, Inequality, and Financial Instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Juan M. Morelli, 2021. "Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Benjamin Knox & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Ren, Zhaomin & Zhang, Xuan & Zhang, Zhekai, 2021. "New evidence on COVID-19 and firm performance," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 213-225.
    14. Stavros Panageas, 2020. "The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 26974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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