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Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19

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  • Ahundjanov, Behzod B.
  • Akhundjanov, Sherzod B.
  • Okhunjanov, Botir B.

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) exposed individuals to a great uncertainty about its health and economic ramifications, especially in the early days and weeks of the outbreak. This study documents oil and gasoline market implications of individuals’ behavior upon such uncertainty by analyzing the relationship between Google search queries related to COVID-19—information search that reflects one's level of concern about the subject (risk perception)—and the performance of oil and gasoline markets during the pandemic. The empirical analysis based on daily data and a structural vector autoregressive model reveals that a unit increase in the popularity of COVID-19 related global search queries, after controlling for COVID-19 cases, results in 0.083% and 0.104% of a cumulative decline in Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Total index and New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular spot price, respectively, after one day, 0.189% and 0.234% of a cumulative decline after one week, and 0.191% and 0.237% of a cumulative decline after two weeks. The reaction of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to the spike in COVID-19 related online searches is found to be statistically insignificant, which can be explained by oil price pass-through into gasoline spot price.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahundjanov, Behzod B. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Okhunjanov, Botir B., 2021. "Risk perception and oil and gasoline markets under COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:115:y:2021:i:c:s0148619520304239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105979
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    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas & Ghazanfari, Arezoo & Nguyen, Jeremy & Moradi-Motlagh, Amir, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of COVID19 on wholesale fuel prices in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 255-266.
    2. Jawad Saleemi, 2023. "Microblogging Perceptive and Pricing Liquidity: Exploring Asymmetric Information as a Risk Determinant of Liquidity in the Pandemic Environments," Economic Analysis Letters, Anser Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-9, March.
    3. David Iheke Okorie & Boqiang Lin, 2024. "Global shocks and fiscal stimulus: a tale of an oil-dependent-exporting country," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-37, December.
    4. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2023. "Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on the asymmetric influence of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1433-1470, August.
    5. Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Rafał Nagaj & Brigita Žuromskaitė-Nagaj & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2024. "The Influence of the Global Energy Crisis on Energy Efficiency: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-51, February.
    6. Kaushik Ranjan Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Google Trends; Risk perception; Oil prices; Gasoline prices; Energy markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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