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Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle

Author

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  • Georgios Georgiadis
  • Gernot J. Müller
  • Ben Schumann

Abstract

We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements—dollar trinity—rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows down, and emerging-market central banks face a trade-off between mitigating the recession and dampening price pressures. We find the dollar is no sideshow in this, but central for the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle to the world economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgiadis & Gernot J. Müller & Ben Schumann, 2023. "Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2058, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2058
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    1. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar dominance; dominant currency paradigm; Bayesian proxy structural VAR model; convenience yield;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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