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The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low

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  • Julian Kozlowski
  • Laura Veldkamp
  • Venky Venkateswaran

Abstract

Riskless interest rates fell in the wake of the financial crisis and have remained low. We explore a simple explanation: This recession was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. Since changes in beliefs endure long after the event itself has passed, perceived tail risk remains high, generates a demand for riskless, liquid assets, and continues to depress the riskless rate. We embed this mechanism in a simple production economy with liquidity constraints and use observable macro data, along with standard econometric tools, to discipline beliefs about the distribution of aggregate shocks. When agents observe an extreme, adverse realization, they re-estimate the distribution and attach a higher probability to such events recurring. As a result, even transitory shocks have persistent effects because, once observed, the shock stays forever in the agents' data set. We show that our belief revision mechanism can help explain the persistent nature of the fall in the risk-free rates.
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(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2018. "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," Working Papers 18-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ste:nystbu:18-01
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    Cited by:

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    8. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.
    9. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
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    12. Mykola Babiak & Roman Kozhan, 2021. "Growth Uncertainty, Rational Learning, and Option Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp682, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
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    14. Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, 2020. "Real Term Structure and New Keynesian Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 95-139, June.
    15. Faia, Ester & Bassanin, Marzio & Patella, Valeria, 2019. "Ambiguity Attitudes, Leverage Cycle and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 13875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Julian Kozlowski, 2019. "Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 20, August.
    17. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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