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Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective

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  • Daniel L. Thornton
  • Giorgio Valente

Abstract

This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information content of forward rates does not generate any systematic economic value to investors. The performance of the predictive models against the no-predictability benchmark worsens over time and the few positive performance fees recorded from dynamic portfolio strategies based on forward rates are generally small in size and do not offset realistic transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2010. "Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-034
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    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2010/2010-034.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    3. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas, 2009. "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3491-3530, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    Keywords

    bond markets; Interest rates;

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