IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01267264.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Zorobabel Bicaba

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The Great Recession has shattered the consensus on the benefits of capital account liberalization. Capital account controls have been introduced in several countries and have even been supported by the International Monetary Fund. In this paper we investigate whether capital account policies in the post-Bretton Woods era can be explained as a process driven by learning by policymakers, who update their beliefs on the basis of their own experience and of the policies adopted by other countries. We emphasize the impact of financial crises on the learning process. The learning model developed in the paper explains more than 90% of the variability of capital account policies. We find that over time beliefs about the growth effects have changed slowly and not smoothly from negative to positive. However, at the outset of the Great Recession beliefs on the positive growth dividends from capital account liberalization were still affected by a significant degree of uncertainty, which suggests that reversals in external liberalizations in the aftermath of the Great Recession are consistent with rational learning by policymakers. Finally, in evaluating the potential benefits and costs of capital controls in a given set of countries, contagion effects through changing beliefs of other countries should be taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Coricelli & Zorobabel Bicaba, 2015. "Learning to open up: Capital account liberalizations in the post-Bretton Woods era," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01267264, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01267264
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    3. Honkapohja, Seppo & Sargent, Thomas & Evans, George W. & Williams, Noah, 2012. "Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection," CEPR Discussion Papers 8917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    6. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2018. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality--A Portfolio Balance Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 1-47, May.
    7. Augustin Landier & David Thesmar & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Investigating capitalism aversion [‘Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment and politics’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23(55), pages 466-497.
    8. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2009. "Adjusting to Capital Account Liberalization," Working Papers 2009-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    11. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 2009. "Learning and Equilibrium," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 385-420, May.
    12. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Anton Korinek, 2012. "Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/010, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-11, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    19. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    20. Aizenman, Joshua, 2008. "On the hidden links between financial and trade opening," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 372-386, April.
    21. Francisco J. Buera & Alexander Monge‐Naranjo & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2011. "Learning the Wealth of Nations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, January.
    22. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1, May.
    23. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2009. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 175-189, May.
    24. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, January.
    25. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 52-82.
    26. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Contagious Policies: An Analysis Of Spatial Interactions Among Countries' Capital Account Policies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 422-445, August.
    27. Philippe Aghion & Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "Regulation and Distrust," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1015-1049.
    28. Kremer, Michael & Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James, 2001. "Searching for prosperity," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 275-303, December.
    29. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Finncial Liberalization: Growth vs. Crises," Post-Print halshs-00754116, HAL.
    30. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
    31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4km7l02j139aj8hl7kcccmqk9s is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2006. "Learning by exporting and structural change: A Ramsey growth model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 293-306, April.
    33. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2012. "Financial liberalization and reversals: political and economic determinants [A new database of financial reforms]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 483-513.
    34. Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "Epilogue: Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 621-658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli & Pablo Ottonello, 2012. "Labor Market, Financial Crises and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 18480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann (ed.), 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles and Financial Liberalization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262201599, December.
    37. Dennis P. Quinn & A. Maria Toyoda, 2008. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Lead to Growth?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1403-1449, May.
    38. Calvo, Guillermo & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ottonello, Pablo, 2012. "The Labor Market Consequences of Financial Crises With or Without Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Simmons, Beth A. & Elkins, Zachary, 2004. "The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 171-189, February.
    40. Stiglitz Joseph E., 2010. "Contagion, Liberalization, and the Optimal Structure of Globalization," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-47, December.
    41. Bordo, Michael D., 2008. "Growing up to Financial Stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-17.
    42. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    43. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    44. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 5-50, July.
    45. Meseguer, Covadonga, 2006. "Learning and economic policy choices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 156-178, March.
    46. Dennis P. Quinn, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and financial globalization, 1890-1999: a synoptic view," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 189-204.
    47. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
    48. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Anton Korinek, 2012. "Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/10, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper - 217 - Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions," Working Paper Series 2155, African Development Bank.
    2. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiov?? & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Capital Account Policies, Imf Programs And Growth In Developing Regions," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1085, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    2. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Jalles, João Tovar & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-145.
    4. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Contagious Policies: An Analysis Of Spatial Interactions Among Countries' Capital Account Policies," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 422-445, August.
    5. Hlaing, Su Wah & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Financial crisis and financial policy reform: Crisis origins and policy dimensions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-243.
    6. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    7. Akram, Gilal Muhammad & Byrne, Joseph P., 2015. "Foreign exchange market pressure and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-53.
    8. Mohamed Trabelsi & Mondher Cherif, 2016. "Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Deepening: Does the Private Sector Matter?," Working Papers 980, Economic Research Forum, revised Feb 2016.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    10. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Filippo Gori, 2016. "Can Reforms Promoting Growth Increase Financial Fragility?: An Empirical Assessment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1340, OECD Publishing.
    11. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    12. Rui P. Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _089, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    13. Trabelsi, Mohamed & Cherif, Mondher, 2017. "Capital account liberalization and financial deepening: Does the private sector matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 141-151.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    15. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper - 217 - Capital Account Policies, IMF Programs and Growth in Developing Regions," Working Paper Series 2155, African Development Bank.
    16. Esteves, Rui & Eichengreen, Barry, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Rui Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _089, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiov?? & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Capital Account Policies, Imf Programs And Growth In Developing Regions," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1085, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    20. Betz, Timm & Pond, Amy, 2023. "Democratic institutions and regulatory privileges for government debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; capital account liberalizations;

    JEL classification:

    • C79 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Other
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01267264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.