A case study: the revisions and forecasts of Euro Area quarterly GDP
AbstractIn general, rational economic agents trade off the cost of waiting for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, on the one hand, and of making use of some model based predictions. Thus, from the viewpoint of agents, predictions and preliminary results from surveys often compete against each other. Comparing the loss attached to predictions, on the one hand, and to possible preliminary estimate from incomplete samples, on the other, provides a broad guidance in deciding if and when statistical agencies should release preliminary and final estimates. In this paper, the case of the dissemination of figures on quarterly GDP in the Euro Area is examined. The main conclusion is that the so called “flash estimates” actually provide valuable information to the users, while intermediate releases, published before three months from the end of the reference quarter can be substituted by model based estimation without any loss of accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40264.
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Accuracy; Data Dissemination; Forecast; Nowcast; Preliminary Estimates; Timeliness;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2012-07-29 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-29 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010.
"An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Henry, Jérôme & Lalik, Magdalena & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "An area-wide real-time database for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1145, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michèle Modugno, 2010. "An Area Wide Real Time Data Base for the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dennis Fixler & Bruce Grimm, 2006. "GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 213-229, 06.
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