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Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis

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  • Adema, Yvonne
  • Pozzi, Lorenzo

Abstract

We investigate the cyclicality of the household saving to household disposable income ratio for a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1969–2012. We find evidence that the household saving ratio is countercyclical. We empirically investigate whether the determinants of saving suggested by a standard buffer stock model of saving can explain this finding. The three main determinants of household saving implied by such a model (i.e., unemployment risk, household wealth and credit constraints) have a significant impact on the household saving ratio while their combined effect completely offsets its countercyclicality. The saving regression results are robust to potential endogeneity of the regressors, to making use of a reduced sample size that leaves out the period of the Great Recession, and to the one-by-one addition of variables suggested by alternative theories that also predict a countercyclical saving ratio.

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  • Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:214-233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.07.014
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    3. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2021. "Macroeconomic disasters and consumption smoothing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Elena Ellmeier & Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2023. "Saving behavior along the income distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/23, pages 7-21.
    5. Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2021. "Households saving and financial spillovers in the Euro area," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 660-687, October.
    6. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nascimento, Natalia Cunha, 2020. "Monetary policy efficiency and macroeconomic stability: Do financial openness and economic globalization matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner, 2022. "Does Public Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from Chinese Household Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9741, CESifo.
    8. Efe Can KILINÇ & Cafer Necat BERBEROĞLU, 2019. "The Relationship Between Saving, Profit Rates and Business CyclesAbstract:There are different approaches of economics schools on the sources, causes and determinants of business cycles. These approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society.
    9. Xiaodan Gao & Shaofeng Xu, 2018. "The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier?," Staff Working Papers 18-59, Bank of Canada.
    10. Ana Lucia Luis & Natalia Teixeira & Rui Braz, 2023. "Portuguese Households Savings in Times of Pandemic: A Way to Better Resist the Escalating Inflation?," Papers 2304.02573, arXiv.org.
    11. Liviu Voinea & Prakash Loungani, 2022. "Excess Savings Are Recession-Specific and Compensatory: Evidence From the US," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(4), pages 233-237, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household saving; Business cycle; Credit constraints; Precautionary saving; Dynamic panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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