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The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving

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Author Info
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier
Parker, Jonathan A

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Abstract

One of the basic motives for saving is the accumulation of wealth to insure future welfare. Both introspection and extant research on consumption insurance find that people face substantial risks that they do not fairly pool. In theory, the consumption and wealth accumulation of price-taking households in an economy with incomplete markets differs substantially from the behaviour of these same households in the equivalent economy with complete-markets. The question we address in this article is whether we find this difference to be large in practice. What is the empirical importance of precautionary saving? We provide a simple decomposition that characterizes the importance of precautionary saving in the US economy. We use this decomposition as an organizing framework to present four main findings: (a) the concavity of the consumption policy rule, (b) the importance of precautionary saving for life-cycle saving and wealth accumulation, (c) the contribution of changes in risk to fluctuations in aggregate consumption and (d) the significant impact of incomplete markets on aggregate fluctuations in calibrated general equilibrium models. We conclude with directions for future research.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2737.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2737

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Related research
Keywords: Consumption Fluctuations Incomplete Markets Insurance Precautionary Saving Saving Wealth Accumulation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-92, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2000. "Precautionary Savings, LifeCycle and Macroeconomics," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0793, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Idiosyncratic Risk and Overlapping Generations," Economics Working Papers 405, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 1999. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2006. "Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," Economics Working Papers 945, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, . "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yasuyuki Sawada & Sung Jin Kang, 2004. "Credit Crunches and Household Welfare: The Case of Korean Financial Crisis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 751, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bütler, Monika & Teppa, Federica, 2005. "Should You Take a Lump-Sum or Annuitize? Results from Swiss Pension Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 5316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2008. "Policy Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings," NBER Working Papers 13911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Research series 200511-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giorgio Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2002. "Inequality over the Business Cycle: Estimating Income Risk using Micro-Data on Consumption," Macroeconomics 0212003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. James Feigenbaum, 2005. "Heterogeneity vs Uncertainty in Anticipation of a Borrowing Constraint," Working Papers 230, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael F. McMahon, 2008. "Policy Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings," CEP Discussion Papers dp0863, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jeong-Joon Lee & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2005. "Precautionary Saving under LiquidityConstraints: Evidence from Rural Pakistan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-377, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  12. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan," Macroeconomics 0402015, EconWPA, revised 09 Feb 2004. [Downloadable!]
  13. Naohito Abe & Tomoaki Yamada, 2004. "Life-Cycle Model and Consumption: Structural Estimation of Precautionary and Life-Cycle Motives (in Japanese)," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-37, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sun Jin Kang & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2003. "Credit Crunches and Household Welfare: The Case of the Korean Financial Crisis," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-234, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  15. Dana Goldman & Nicole Maestas, 2005. "Medical Expenditure Risk and Household Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 11818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2003. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-068/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Gomes, F. A. R., 2007. "The Effect of Future Income Uncertainty in Savings Decision," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_72, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
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