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Predictions vs preliminary sample estimates

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  • D'Elia, Enrico

Abstract

In general, rational economic agents are not in the position to wait for the statistical agencies disseminate the final results of the relevant surveys before making a decision, and have to make use of some model based predictions, even when agents are not assumedly forward looking. Thus, from the viewpoint of agents, predictions and preliminary results from surveys often compete against each other. Agents are aware to incur in a loss basing their decisions on predictions instead of sound statistical data, but the loss could be smaller than the one related to waiting for the dissemination of final data. Comparing the loss attached to predictions, on the one hand, and to possible preliminary estimate from incomplete samples, on the other, provides a broad guidance in deciding if and when statistical agencies should release preliminary and final estimates of the key variables. The main result of the analysis is that, in general, preliminary sample estimates are useful for the users only if they come from unexpectedly large sub-samples, even when the predictability of relevant variables is scarce. Nevertheless, the cost of delaying decisions for many economic agents may support the dissemination of early estimates of the main economic aggregates even if their accuracy is not fully satisfactory from a strict statistical viewpoint.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36070.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36070

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Related research

Keywords: Accuracy; Data Dissemination; Forecast; Preliminary Estimates; Timeliness;

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  1. Karim Barhoumi & Szilard Benk & Riccardo Cristadoro & Ard Den Reijer & Audrone Jakaitiene & Piotr Jelonek & António Rua & Gerhard Rünstler & Karsten Ruth & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets - a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series 84, European Central Bank.
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  8. Nigel Pain & Franck Sédillot, 2005. "Indicator models of real GDP growth in the major OECD economies," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(1), pages 167-217.
  9. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0846, European Central Bank.
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