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The Irish Macroeconomic Response to an External Shock with an Application to Stress Testing

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  • Birmingham, Colin

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Conefrey, Thomas

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper carries out an empirical analysis of the sensitivity of the Irish economy to an unanticipated external demand shock using a Bayesian VAR model which includes a number of Irish macroeconomic variables such as GDP, unemployment and wages. A 1% increase in US GDP growth leads to an increase in Irish GDP growth of 1.3% in the model. We also assess the relative importance of demand shocks in Ireland’s other key trading partners, the UK and the euro area. The Irish GDP response to shocks in our main trading partners is roughly proportional to our export shares to these regions. We feed the results of the VAR analysis into a mortgage delinquency model to derive the implication of changes in external demand on mortgage delinquency. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 10/RT/11.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:10/rt/11

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Related research

Keywords: Trade Shock; Bayesian VAR; Stress Testing;

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References

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  1. Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran & Stuart, Rebecca, 2013. "Exploring the steady-state relationship between credit and GDP for a small open economy: the case of Ireland," Working Paper Series 1531, European Central Bank.
  3. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  4. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
  5. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094, September.
  6. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Durkan, Joe & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2011. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2011," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20111, September.
  8. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Lydon, Reamonn & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2011. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  10. McCoy, Daniel & Duffy, David & Bergin, Adele & Eakins, John & MacCoille, C, 2002. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2002," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20022, September.
  11. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, September.
  12. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20092, September.
  13. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20102, September.
  14. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2008. "Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0875, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Mwanza Nkusu, 2013. "Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt," IMF Working Papers 13/35, International Monetary Fund.

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