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Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

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  • Romain Houssa
  • Jolan Mohimont
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
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  • Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Christopher Otrok, 2015. "Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 125-148, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:20:y:2015:i:1:p:125-148
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    Cited by:

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    4. Loujaina Abdelwahed & Georgios Karras, 2021. "Did 272 billion dollars from China help stabilize business cycle fluctuations in recipient countries?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 314-358, May.
    5. Lakatos, Csilla & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Go, Delfin S, 2016. "China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa," Conference papers 332730, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Sedegah Kordzo & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "A Review of the Impact of External Shocks on Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Non-WAEMU Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 31(3), pages 37-59, September.
    7. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Dessie Ambaw & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Nicholas Sim, 2023. "Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia‐Pacific," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 164-189, June.

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