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The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: is the Taylor Rule an useful benchmark for the last decade?

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Author Info
Forte, Antonio

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Abstract

The Taylor rule has been used in many studies in order to analyse the monetary policies. In my work I focus on the Euro era and compare the ECB with other two central banks, the Fed and the BoE. A very interesting result comes out from the analysis: it seems that these central banks do not observe the inflation course before deciding about the variation of the interest rates. This result can be linked to two ideas: firstly, the use of stationary time series drops out the significance of the inflation gap as regressor; secondly, a really forward looking central bank focuses on other macroeconomic leading indicators instead of examining the realized or expected inflation gap.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18309.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18309

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Related research
Keywords: Taylor rule; monetary policy; European Central Bank; Federal Reserve; Bank of England; Euro; Exchange rates.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7, pages 1-34, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Consensus Data," DNB Working Papers 160, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB experience: Frankfurt still matters!," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0070, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE). [Downloadable!]
  5. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB : Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Laurence Ball & Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," NBER Working Papers 8785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  9. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis," MPRA Paper 16527, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Florens, C. & Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Documents de Travail 83, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  16. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78. [Downloadable!]
  17. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 05/89, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Zeno Rotondi & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Lessons from the ECB Experience: Frankfurt Still Matters!," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 147-170, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Charles Engel, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," NBER Working Papers 14829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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