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European Integration and Labour Migration

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  • d'Artis Kancs
  • Julia Kielyte

Abstract

The present paper studies how European integration might affect the migration of workers in the enlarged EU. Unlike the reduced-form migration models, we base our empirical analysis on the theory of economic geography à la Krugman (1991), which provides an alternative modelling of migration pull and push factors. Parameters of the theoretical model are estimated econometrically using historical migration data. Our empirical findings suggest that European integration would trigger selective migration between the countries in the enlarged EU. In the Baltics, Lithuania would gain about 7.25% of the total work force. In the Visegrád Four, the share of the mobile labour force would increase the most in Hungary, 8.35%, compared to the pre-integration state. Our predictions for the East-West migration are moderate and lower than those of reduced-form models: between 5.44% (from the Baltics) and 3.61% (from the Visegrád Four) would emigrate to the EU North. Because migrants not only follow market potential, but also shape the region’s market potential, the long-run agglomeration forces are sufficiently weak to make a swift emergence of a core-periphery pattern in the enlarged EU very unlikely.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2010_27.

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Date of creation: 27 Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2010_27

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Keywords: New economic geography; Market potential; Labour migration; Economic integration.;

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References

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  1. Giuseppe Russo, 2011. "Voting over Selective Immigration Policies with Immigration Aversion," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy 289, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2009. "Sticky Wages, Incomplete Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting: What is the Right Index to Target?," MPRA Paper 13177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Elvio Accinelli & Silvia London & Lionello F. Punzo & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2010. "Dynamic Complementarities, Efficiency and Nash Equilibria for Populations of Firms and Workers," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(1), pages 90-110.
  4. Matthieu Crozet, 2004. "Do Migrants Follow Market Potentials? An Estimation of a New Economic Geography Model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL halshs-00096277, HAL.
  5. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
  6. Todd Schoellman, 2010. "The Occupations and Human Capital of U.S. Immigrants," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34.
  7. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," EERI Research Paper Series, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels EERI_RP_2010_36, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  8. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. d'Artis Kancs, 2011. "Labour migration in the enlarged EU: a new economic geography approach," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 171-188.
  10. Jordi Pons & Elisenda Paluzie & Javier Silvestre & Daniel A. Tirado, 2007. "Testing The New Economic Geography: Migrations And Industrial Agglomerations In Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 289-313.
  11. Julda Kielyte, 2008. "Estimating Panel Data Models in the Presence of Endogeneity and Selection," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 51(2), pages 1-19.
  12. D’Artis Kancs, 2005. "Can we use NEG models to predict migration flows? An example of CEE accession countries," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 2(1), pages 32-63, April.
  13. Kancs, D’Artis & Kielyte, Julda, 2010. "Education in the East, Emigrating to the West?," European Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 133-154, May.
  14. d'Artis Kancs, 2007. "Does Economic Integration Affect the Structure of Industries? Empirical Evidence from the CEE," LICOS Discussion Papers, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven 19507, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  15. Vink, Maarten P., 2002. "Negative and Positive Integration in European Immigration Policies," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 6, 08.
  16. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
  17. d’Artis Kancs & Julda Kielyte, 2002. "Migration in the Enlarged European Union: Empirical Evidence for Labour Mobility in the Baltic States," EERI Research Paper Series, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels EERI_RP_2002_04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  18. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
  19. Elisenda Paluzie & Jordi Pons & Javier Silvestre & Daniel Tirado, 2009. "Migrants and market potential in Spain over the twentieth century: a test of the new economic geography," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 243-265, December.
  20. d’Artis Kancs, 2006. "The economic geography of labour migration: Competition, competitiveness and development," EERI Research Paper Series, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels EERI_RP_2006_01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  21. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
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Cited by:
  1. Ana Paula Martins, 2010. "Splitting Games: Nash Equilibrium and the Optimisation Problem," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 53(1), pages 1-28.
  2. James Anderson, 2001. "Migration, FDI, and the Margins of Trade," EERI Research Paper Series, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels EERI_RP_2001_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.

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