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Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing

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  • Pesaran, M. Hashem

    ()
    (University of Cambridge)

  • Smith, Ron P.

    ()
    (Birkbeck College, University of London)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it does not. It is argued that for ex post policy evaluation it is important that outcomes are conditioned on ex post realized variables that are invariant to the policy change but nevertheless influence the outcomes. The effects of the control variables that are determined endogenously with the policy outcomes can be solved out for the policy evaluation exercise. An ex post policy ineffectiveness test statistic is proposed. The analysis is applied to the evaluation of the effects of the quantitative easing (QE) in the UK after March 2009. It is estimated that a 100 basis points reduction in the spread due to QE has an impact effect on output growth of about one percentage point, but the policy impact is very quickly reversed with no statistically significant effects remaining within 9-12 months of the policy intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 6618.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6618

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Keywords: counterfactuals; policy evaluation; macroeconomics; quantitative easing (QE); UK economic policy;

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References

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  1. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," NBER Working Papers 19355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2012. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 255-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
  5. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F271-F288, November.
  6. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  7. M Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Mikhail Pranovich, 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks," DNB Working Papers 327, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Guido Imbens & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2010. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: An Appraisal," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 53-89, 09.
  10. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
  12. Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.
  13. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Jonathan P. Ashworth, 2012. "QE: a successful start may be running into diminishing returns," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 640-670, WINTER.
  14. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. James Heckman, 2008. "Econometric causality," CeMMAP working papers CWP01/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  16. James J. Heckman, 2010. "Building Bridges between Structural and Program Evaluation Approaches to Evaluating Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 356-98, June.
  17. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
  18. Joyce, Michael, 2012. "Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies: Bank of England conference summary," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 48-56.
  19. Guido W. Imbens, 2009. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," NBER Working Papers 14896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gabriel Fagan & James R. Lothian & Paul D. Mcnelis, 2013. "Was The Gold Standard Really Destabilizing?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 231-249, 03.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. What are the effects of Quantitative Easing
    by Peter in Macroeconomic Analysis on 2013-08-22 05:55:34
  2. Liam Plunkett & the tragedy of social science
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2014-06-25 12:40:57
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Cited by:
  1. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
  2. Vincenzo Bove & Roberto Nisticò, 2014. "Coups d'état and Defense Spending: A Counterfactual Analysis," CSEF Working Papers 366, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Armas, Adrián & Castillo, Paul & Vega, Marco, 2014. "Inflation targeting and Quantitative Tightening: Effects of Reserve Requirements in Peru," Working Papers 2014-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  4. Li MA & Zhongyuan DUAN & Huadan YU, 2013. "The Transmission Mechanism and Effectiveness of the Fed's Operation Twist," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 164-181, October.
  5. Salvatore Morelli, 2014. "Banking Crises in the US: the Response of Top Income Shares in a Historical Perspective," CSEF Working Papers 359, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "Signs of Impact Effects in Time Series Regression Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 4433, CESifo Group Munich.

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