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Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
  • Martin Feldkircher
  • Florian Huber

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1371-1391, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:31:y:2016:i:7:p:1371-1391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Model uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-131.
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Multivariate Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112999, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-100.
    5. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    7. Han, Fei & Hee Ng, Thiam, 2011. "ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 76, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Gary M. Koop, 2013. "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 177-203, March.
    9. Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2012. "Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 554-573, June.
    10. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, Decembrie.
    11. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    12. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    13. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    15. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
    16. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    17. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-73, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Geweke, John, 2001. "Bayesian econometrics and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 11-15, January.
    19. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    20. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe: A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2009/023, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2016. "Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 110-120.
    22. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-686, October.
    23. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "The international transmission of US shocks—Evidence from Bayesian global vector autoregressions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 167-188.
    25. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    26. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
    27. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    28. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
    29. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
    30. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
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