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Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

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Author Info
Gebhard Flaig ()
Timo Wollmershäuser ()

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Abstract

This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would prevail if that country was able to follow an “optimal” monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy rule corresponds to the policy rule that was adopted by the country in the pre-EMU period and depends on the trend growth rates of GDP and consumer prices as well as on the related cyclical components. The main results are that stress in the Euro-zone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries interest rates have been too low over the 1999-2005 period. Stress in Germany is close to zero, implying that the ECB continues the policy of the Bundesbank.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1937.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1937

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Related research
Keywords: stress indicator; Taylor rule; monetary union; divergence; trends; cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," NBER Working Papers 6150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series 595, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Beatrice Pierluigi & Nikiforos Vidalis, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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