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Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation

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  • Gebhard Flaig
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

This paper presents a stress indicator for the Euro-zone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country’s actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would prevail if that country was able to follow an “optimal” monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy rule corresponds to the policy rule that was adopted by the country in the pre-EMU period and depends on the trend growth rates of GDP and consumer prices as well as on the related cyclical components. The main results are that stress in the Euro-zone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries interest rates have been too low over the 1999-2005 period. Stress in Germany is close to zero, implying that the ECB continues the policy of the Bundesbank.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1937.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1937

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Related research

Keywords: stress indicator; Taylor rule; monetary union; divergence; trends; cycles;

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References

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  1. Daniel Leigh, 2005. "Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 05/77, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  6. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  7. Jean Boivin, 2005. "Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," NBER Working Papers 11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," NBER Working Papers 6150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  11. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  12. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M., 2001. "General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  14. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Beatrice Pierluigi & Nikiforos Vidalis, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. J. Atsu Amegashie & Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," CESifo Working Paper Series 1996, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Die Europäische Währungsunion und der Verlust einer eigenständigen Geldpolitik," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 2(4), pages 35-43, December.
  3. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Seppo Honkapohja & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2007. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 15-58, 02.
  4. Lee , Jim & Crowley, Patrick M, 2009. "Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland.
  5. Andrzej Torój, 2009. "Solving Forward-Looking Models of Cross-Country Adjustment within the Euro Area," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 1(3), pages 211-241, November.
  6. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," KOF Working papers 08-190, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  7. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 86, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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