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Flash und Nowcast: Schnellschätzungen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Corona-Pandemie

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  • Ackermann, Arne
  • Dickopf, Xaver
  • Mucha, Tanja

Abstract

Das Statistische Bundesamt veröffentlicht seit Juli 2020 eine erste Schnellschätzung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) bereits 30 Tage nach Quartalsende. Vorausgegangen waren umfangreiche Tests zur Qualitätssicherung. Gleichzeitig wurden ab 2018 im Rahmen einer Machbarkeitsstudie die Möglichkeiten einer weiteren Beschleunigung zu einem BIP-t+10-Nowcast getestet. Dieser Beitrag stellt deren Ergebnisse vor und Revisionsanalysen der Schätzungen des BIP-t+10-Nowcast sowie des BIP-t+30- Flash vor und während der Corona-Pandemie gegenüber. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die BIP-Schnellschätzung nach 30 Tagen, die Expertenschätzungen mit ökonometrischen Verfahren kombiniert, dem rein modellgestützten Ansatz nach 10 Tagen vor allem in Krisenzeiten deutlich überlegen ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Ackermann, Arne & Dickopf, Xaver & Mucha, Tanja, 2021. "Flash und Nowcast: Schnellschätzungen des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Corona-Pandemie," WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Wiesbaden, vol. 73(4), pages 17-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wistat:237397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Janz & Peter Kuntze & Tanja Mucha, 2022. "Revisionen in den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen in Zeiten von Corona [Revisions in National Accounts in Times of Corona]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 904-906, November.
    2. Hagenkort-Rieger, Susanne, 2023. "Zukunft gestalten mit amtlicher Statistik – Möglichkeiten aus der Perspektive des Datenproduzenten," WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Wiesbaden, vol. 75(6), pages 42-55.

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