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Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?

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  • David Cobham
  • Yue Kang

Abstract

When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University in its series Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers with number 1206.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1206

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  1. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis," Working Paper Series 1335, European Central Bank.
  2. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F316-F347, November.
  4. Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
  5. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments," Working Paper Series 1290, European Central Bank.
  6. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
  7. Charles Goodhart, 1989. "Money, Information and Uncertainty: 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262071223, December.
  8. Aiyar, Shekhar, 2011. "How did the crisis in international funding markets affect bank lending? Balance sheet evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 424, Bank of England.
  9. Bridges, Jonathan & Thomas, Ryland, 2012. "The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic," Bank of England working papers 442, Bank of England.
  10. Bell, Venetia & Young, Garry, 2010. "Understanding the weakness of bank lending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 311-320.
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Cited by:
  1. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Winkler, Bernhard, 2013. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Working Paper Series 1528, European Central Bank.
  2. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Marcelle Chauvet, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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