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The impact of QE on the UK economy – some supportive monetarist arithmetic

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  • Bridges, Jonathan

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Thomas, Ryland

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper uses a simple money demand and supply framework to estimate the impact of quantitative easing (QE) on asset prices and nominal spending. We use standard money accounting to try to establish the impact of asset purchases on broad money holdings. We show that the initial impact of £200 billion of asset purchases on the money supply was partially offset by other ‘shocks’ to the money supply. Some of these offsets may have been the indirect result of QE. Our central case estimate is that QE boosted the broad money supply by £122 billion or 8%. We apply our estimates of the impact of QE on the money supply to a set of ‘monetarist’ econometric models that articulate the extent to which asset prices and spending need to adjust to make the demand for money consistent with the increased broad money supply associated with QE. Our preferred, central case estimate is that an 8% increase in money holdings may have pushed down on yields by an average of around 150 basis points in 2010 and increased asset values by approximately 20%. This in turn would have had a peak impact on output of 2% by the start of 2011, with an impact on inflation of 1 percentage point around a year later. These estimates are necessarily uncertain and we show the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about the size of the shock to the money supply and the nature of the transmission mechanism.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 442.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0442

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Related research

Keywords: Quantitative easing; money demand; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, . "The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  2. Shamik Dhar & Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, 2000. "A small structural empirical model of the UK monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 113, Bank of England.
  3. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
  4. Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.
  5. Julia K. Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2005. "Inflation and Interest Rates with Endogenous Market Segmentation," 2005 Meeting Papers 170, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
  7. Bridges, Jonathan & Rossiter, Neil & Thomas, Ryland, 2011. "Understanding the recent weakness in broad money growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(1), pages 22-35.
  8. Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
  9. Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629.
  10. Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
  11. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Harrison, Richard, 2012. "Asset purchase policy at the effective lower bound for interest rates," Bank of England working papers 444, Bank of England.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Bank's scepticism
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2013-06-19 12:53:53
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Cited by:
  1. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative Easing: A Sceptical Survey," Working Paper Series 73_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Michael Bleaney & Sharmila Devadas, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Inflows in Emerging Markets: How Much Are They Sterilised?," Discussion Papers 13/01, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
  3. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F271-F288, November.
  4. Chris Florakis & Gianluigi Giorgioni & Alexandros Kostakis & Costas Milas, 2012. "The Impact of Stock Market Illiquidity on Real UK GDP Growth," Working Paper Series 65_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  5. David Cobham & Yue Kang, 2012. "Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1206, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
  6. Schüder, Stefan, 2011. "Monetary policy trade-offs in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," MPRA Paper 32019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers 471, Bank of England.
  8. Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Butt, Nicholas & Domit, Silvia & McLeay, Michael & Thomas, Ryland & Kirkham, Lewis, 2012. "What can the money data tell us about the impact of QE?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(4), pages 321-331.
  10. Matteo Falagiarda & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Announcements of ECB Unconventional Programs: Implications for the Sovereign Risk of Italy," Kiel Working Papers 1866, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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