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Die Zinslast des Bundes in der Schuldenkrise: Wie lukrativ ist der „sichere Hafen“?

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  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Great Recession and during the debt crisis in the euro area yields on German federal bonds have been exceptionally low. This analysis tries to calculate the profits that the federal government makes due to the low yields. The interest payments that are due to emissions of bonds and bills made between 2009 and 2012 are approximated and compared to several benchmark scenarios. Compared to the mean yields of the years 1999-2008 profits of the federal government are quite high (68 billion euros). Application of yield curve models show that most of these profits are due to the macroeconomic conditions in the euro area and to low central bank rates. To a much smaller extend these profits are due to flight into safety, which, however, has become more relevant recently

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-2516.2012.00390.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Volume (Year): 13 (2012)
Issue (Month): (05)
Pages: 81-91

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Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:13:y:2012:i::p:81-91

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References

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  1. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, . "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp310, IIIS.
  2. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
  4. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2012. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 506/507, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 481/482, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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Cited by:
  1. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinski & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung setzt sich fort," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 60, 03.
  2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2013. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2013," Kiel Discussion Papers 524/525, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013. "Wie der Staat 2010 bis 2012 konsolidiert hat," Kiel Policy Brief 62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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